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"Current observations, recent trends, and the dynamical model forecasts indicate that conditions are favourable for a transition ... to El Nino conditions during June-August 2009."
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said if recent trends in Pacific climate patterns held up, there was an above-50 per cent chance an El Nino event would be established by July. El Nino occurs when the eastern Pacific Ocean heats up, with warmer, moist air moving east, leaving drier weather in the western Pacific and Australia and putting crops at risk of failure. The most devastating El Nino was in 1997/98, when it caused drought in Australia and Indonesia and floods in Peru and Ecuador.