Experts: Big Tobacco Dead By 2047, Possibly Sooner

Experts: Big Tobacco Dead by 2047, Possibly Sooner

ScienceDaily (June 26, 2009) — President Barack Obama's signature on a bill this week to grant the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulatory authority over tobacco was historic, and represents a step in the march to eliminate tobacco use in this country by 2047, two national tobacco experts said on June 25.

The pair published "Stealing a March in the 21st Century: Accelerating Progress in the 100-Year War Against Tobacco Addiction in the United States" in the American Journal of Public Health. Michael Fiore and Timothy Baker, director and associate director of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Center for Tobacco Research and Intervention (UW-CTRI), respectively, chart milestones in beating tobacco addiction and map a battle plan to eradicate tobacco use in the next few decades. The researchers analyzed data from the 1960s, when the first systemic tracking of smoking rates began, until the present.

Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show adults smoking between 1965 and 2007 dropped by an average of one half of one percentage point per year, from 42 percent to the current rate of about 20 percent rate. While this rate of decline hasn't occurred each year, the overall decrease has been quite steady.

Seriously, good.

I may not be popular among you smokers but seriously, this is great.

I understand it's your choice to smoke, but it is the most futile and disgusting habit.

You poison your bodies to satisfy an addiction to nicotine. What a pointless addiction.

I will never understand it.

Drugs, alcohol I understand. But by smoking you get addicted to a chemical that you really don't need. So stupid!

Only 38 years to wait!

Hey, addicts don't need drugs and alcohol, either. Really, who needs those things? Other than pain medication say, for a serious medical problem. Meanwhile, I have advocated the illegalization for tobacco for many years and get scoffed at quite a lot by friends and relatives. My reasoning for it being outlawed is, if it is such a deadly substance, then why keep it legal?
Also, when I was in the U.S. Army, the policy in the 80's and 90's was that the army would be a tobacco free organization by 2000. Any luck with that? Any current army members here that can chime in on this?

Actually, I suspect smoking will go through a bit of a Renaissance of sorts, as technology advances.

With e-cigarettes, bio-engineered tobacco that eliminate Tar, smokeless and ash-free cigarettes, the discovery of safe & synthetic (read "Patentable" and thus more profitable) chemical additives to replace the currently dangerous and carcinogenic ones (like arsenic and formaldehyde) in cigarettes, the popular mainstream return of 17th century Snuff, and so forth, all the arguments against the use of tobacco in consumer products will diminish and abate.

Besides, considering Tobacco was the second largest source of Revenue to the US Federal Treasury, and with the Bill that was signed into Law on the 22nd, it will now be the single largest source of Revenue to the US Federal Treasury, why on earth do you think the US Government wants to deter Tobacco or outlaw it?

Considering the only other source of Revenue to the US Federal Treasury that comes close is Gasoline, which is a non-renewable resource that is being phased out in our society, the US Government is going to have to make up it's financial losses elsewhere, and that is going to be from Tobacco.

Tobacco will not be going away in 2047. It will not be going away in 2147. As long as our government relies on Tobacco as it's primary Revenue source, it will be around in some shape or form.

The way it's going, smoking pot will be legal but smoking cigarettes would take it's place as being illegal. Prohibition of any kind is not very wise. I'm sure they would try to outlaw alcohal, oh wait they already tried that didn' tthey? Wasn't too pretty. Why can't people just leave others be and quit giving the government more powers to control things even further just to further their agenda. I guess cars will be outlawed soon enough, they are more damaging to the health than a cigarette. I do agree with the poster who said tobacco won't go away. If it becomes illegal then it will become an "underground" practice.

Doesn't matter either way I'll still smoke if I feel like it and the government can go expletive themselves. When they start doing something that works maybe I'll listen till then fat chance Obama Inc. Lol

reply to post by fraterormus


This should be worrying a lot of people - the tobacco tax revenue for the United States has increased from (in thousands of dollars) 3,631,728 in 1977 to 14,974,713 in 2006 - worrying because you need to start thinking what will be taxed to replace all that lost revenue.
Link

Start gearing up for high personal taxes American friends, unfortunately the US government cannot sustain it's high spending whilst at the same time decreasing reliable sources of income. It's simply not economically feasible.
Even China is targeting tobacco taxation revenue as a revenue source:

Li Ling, Peking University professor said: "Increasing consumption tax of tobacco can not only help government increase income, but also save millions of lives."

Link

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Noooooooo !!!!!!!! say it isnt so !!! ........ who's gonna give me cancer nowwwww ????

.... I think its a little much. People should have a right to smoke, it doesn't hurt anyone but themselves.

..... god, ... I can only see the future. " .. Come on man, i got these cheeseburgers man, ....... let me get a smoke. ""

Big Tobacco will not die, not now, and not in 100 years.
Just because smoking is on the decilne in the western world, doesnt mean its on the decline in the rest of the world.
the western world only represents a small percentage of the world's smokers.
Chinas smoking population is around 800 million. That is almost 3times the population of the U.S. this is a relatively new market for big tobacco, as political issues and trade barriers have prevented big tobacco from going in.
SO, if these tobacco companies all of a sudden have a new market of 800 million smokers to market to, what makes people think that big tobacco is coming to an end? if anything they expect to see increasing profits over the next few years.