Originally posted by orangetom1999
My initial feeling is that this is about oil...but not in the manner most people think. They want the oil alright..but they want to keep it off the
market...yet keep competitors out as the same time. The historical pattern has been to acquire control over certain territories. Like Vietnam...and
then under the guise of a war...bring up the infrastructure into the 20th or 21st century standards..at public expense of course. THen carefully keep
the bulk of the oil off themarket ...out of the hands of competitors..also not accessable to the people of your country.
Thus keeping prices up and from the standpoint of the buisnesses .... stable/profitable.
This is why Alaskan oil went anywhere but the United States..to keep the price of oil up. Vietnamese oil remained in the ground and not on the
market....thus keeping prices stable. A communist government gauranteed that no oil or economic progress would happen..and the oil/country essentially
remain in storage until the proper time. A communist government is the perfect method or pattern to keep a whole country in storage and its resources
off the market. I think a variation of this fingerprint is happening in Iraq. The oil fields and refineries repaired but most of the oil kept off the
market to maintain price stability. At the same time in Iraq..under the guise of a war...competitors are being kept out...while the infrastructure is
brought into the 21st century at public expense.
Yes it is about oil ..but not in the pattern most people would think.
[...]
You know...when you look from buisnes standpoint...the number of Western buisnesses operating in the countries surrounding Iran...it seems that
influence wise...we have Iran surrounded by Western buisnesses operating in these countries. It does not take much wisdom to understand that someone
in these buisnesses operating in the countries surrounding Iran is doing double duty reporting back to intelligence agencys of what is happening
there..both in Iran and these surrounding nations.
I was quite startled to see how many western buisnesses were firmly extablished in nations like Kazakhstan or Turkmanistan...et al. I quickly
realized that in this manner ..we have had Iran surrounded for many years now.
Good analysis. The oil industry will always mystify us because we don't really know what their long term strategies are.
One theory has been that they ultimately want to drain the Middle East of it's resources and move onward to more profitable less politically charged
places.
Much of the concern is not just for the amount of oil but also it's relative quality and accessibility. Some countries were blessed with gushers
producing higher qualities, other countries such as Iran were not.
It looks now as if the short term agenda is to bring world prices to the $200-300 per barrel level. But then there is the factor of keeping certain
countries starved of revenues, again Iran, to make them more compliant politically.
Iran's aberrant behaviour the pas few years has indeed been due to it's paranoia at being surrounded and contained. The US went into Afghanistan
and Iraq in great part due to the desire to intimidate Iran. IT worked.
But there are so many wild cards that it is hard to say how things will play out. The Global Meltdown was probably not anticipated, or it's scale.
How the oil business responds remains to be seen.
Mike