Panic begins as Hospitals struggling already

Heard this on the news last night.

Apparently hospitals in London and the West Midlands (Birmingham) are already having to take measures from the influx of people worried they have swine flu.

Most are sent straight home as they are Ok.

uk.news.yahoo.com...

Just found this now to relating to the same problem in Argentina
thestar.com.my.../2009/6/25/worldupdates/2009-06-25T071803Z_01_NOOTR_RTRMDNC_0_-405837-1&sec=Worldupdates

Reminds me of an episode of scrubs where the news states that there is a possible E. Coli outbreak in the area, so anybody with a cough decides to show up at the hospital to get a clean bill of health -- only to find everybody in the city decided to do the same thing.

YouTube Link

What exactly is going on here? I don't mean "what's up with the virus," I mean why the hell is it being hyped so much? It has a 0.1% mortality rate or lower.

Is 0.1% mortality rate high or something?

No 0.1% is very low mortality but across a population of 6,000,000,000 it would still kill around 6 million.

Also the actual mortality rate is higher than 0.1% and it is still mutating, from other threads I believe there are now about 30 new strains.

People are worried it mutates into something more deadly or combines with H5N1 which has about a 50% death rate. Normal flu is about 1 - 2% so even that if it goes global which H1N1 is doing COULD result in 60 - 120 million deaths.

I am not suggesting people should be panicing BUT there is no harm in being a bit more prepared. As has been previously stated if you get in extra food etc it's not a waste as you are going to eat it anyway, just means that if the SHTF you do not need to venture out into any chaotic scenes to stay alive.

What hype? Where do you see hype?
I see APATHY being pushed and a media cap on the news.

The VERY VALID CONCERN is that this flu is behaving in the same way as the 1918 epidemic which killed tens of millions around the world. It mutated and came on, very strong, in the fall. October or so.

For me (working with the Health/Hospital Sector) the real issue isn't any mortality rates of it...its the rates at which our Hospital Staff are dropping and going home sick.

For instance, my Community Team normally has 32 Staff. We were down 9 this morning, 3 confirmed with Swine, waiting to hear on the other 6. All in the space of 3 days.
I've just received a few text messages from 2 other Nursing Staff who are showing flu symptoms so will be checked up on tomorrow - in the mean time they can't return back to work till they are cleared - which means we're likely down 11 Nursing Staff tomorrow.

Thats more than a third of our nursing/operational staff down in our team alone.
In a sector that is already stretched staff-wise...believe me, losing a third even for a day or two is a major shyte-storm.

Other Teams I know of are similar or approaching that.

So too the Med Teams and the Inpatient Wards.


...its not so much the mortality that is the issue...its showing up at a Hospital or calling your Community Team and we haven't got a soul to spare to assist you. Thats the real issue. The grinding to a halt of those required systems due to so many being off work.



Peace.

reply to post by alien

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That was more the point of my post/thread as hospitals get inundated and they suffer the double whammy of losing their own staff to this plus the usual levels of illness anyway.

It will have a huge knock on effect on other areas within the hospital and people will not get treatment for other accidents/ illness and that in turn leads to mild cases of whatever turning more serious, secondary infections etc.

It is bad enough at peak times already but once you start getting stressed out relatives getting involved it increase the potential for trouble against staff as well thereby making it more likely even more staff will not turn up for work further exacerbating the problem.

This is not flu season. Solar exposure kills viruses. That is why winter is the traditional flu season. But this flu is engineered.

Hybrid A/H1N1 flu tied to genetic trigger for larger, mutated version
onlinejournal.com...

reply to post by alien

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Alien is right when I had to go into the ER here in America it was over run with patient's that had the flu really bad and most where younger in age. The problem wasn't just the severity, but the fact that they where severely under staffed due to the nurse's and doctor's alike getting the flu too.
The doctor who helped me had been on a 48hr shift and held over another 12 hours...only to be looking at another hold over when I came in! Being my family is in the nursing field and I am older he let me take my medicine and LEAVE to use it at home with my own equipment.
As far as the hype I was really paying attention to the news and science behind what the flu has been doing being I had caught it early on and gone through a few separate phase's of reinfection with bacterial bronchi tits.
What has me truly worried is that here in America where our flu season is completely OVER, we are having yet another wave of the flu that is worse than the first few come through again. There are many people I know personally who work in the health field who have said there are still MANY people coming in and they are coming in with more severe case's.

On June 19th my own brother his wife 2 year old 1year old and my 13 year old niece staying with him, became deathly ill in a matter of less than 12 hours and ALL had to be rushed to a packed ER. They where held at the ER due to the fact that his son had a fever of 104.8 and my niece's weren't any better. He and his wife where in the 102-103 range. The CDC and health department where called in and ALL where tested and refused exit until they finished and they where stable. They are now on home quarantine and the only way we even found out it was happening is they had to call my sister to get further treatment for my niece beyond getting her stable. I am sorry BUT I DON"T see the HYPE in people getting that ILL that FAST.
The flu is getting worse than it was a few month's ago over here already and HYPE isn't the word of the day on the mind's of the people getting the newest wave of it! I think FEAR would be a better word being it is making young healthy people more ill than anyone else.

It seems to be about to mutate in Argentina. They have confirmed their first person to animal transmission of the virus, at the same time deaths are increased by one, a 24 year old pregnant woman.

Here´s the link in spanish...

www.infobae.com...ís-una-persona-un-cerdo

Thanks for the links, as well as the concern that this version mirrors the 1918 version. Perhaps the "unfrozen" version???

Back to the matter at hand, more to the point. In my area, they have announced nearly every case that's been confirmed at the hospital. The only thing is, I am fairly certain that alot more people have had this around here... There is another thread floating around posing the question of whether the author should attempt to contract this version of H1N1 before it mutates to allow antibody production...

I'll have to look at that thread...

My point is, our hospitals around here are not swamped with possible cases at this point, as per two RN's I know in the area. They are concerned about the fall though, as has been mentioned here and other threads on this topic.

Either way, I wish all strong immune systems!

Update:

Normally my Team comprises 32 Operational Staff - mainly frontline Community Nurses, Social Workers and Therapists.
We also have 3 Drs and 3 Admin Staff.

Count this morning:
11 Operational Staff down
1 Dr down
2 Admin Staff down.
= 14 from a total of 38 off, 5 confirmed now with Swine Flu and thus put off work for the next week. All 5 are Senior frontline Nurses.
The rest are stood down for a minimum of 3 days awaiting reassessment to ascertain whether or not they are also off for at least a week.


Presently - due to low floor-staff numbers we are unable to do our normal '2-up' Acute visits. We assess Acutes in pairs for safety...so as of today all Acutes have to be solo...which not only increases risk but also in many ways decreases the effectiveness and responsiveness of care to our clients in a time of high need.

We are also needing to agressively triage our Acutes.
Meaning those who otherwise would have been seen and assessed/assisted so hopefully a full acute and admission to the Wards averted are now not ranking that high up the priority ladder...effectively being left until their unwellness either stabalises or increases to the point they make the cut-point now.

Again the trickle-down effect is obvious: Lowered standard of care, increased pressure upon clients and their families/supports and increased likelihood of lengthy Inpatient Admissions to deal with higher levels of decompensation that may well have been averted.

The reality is that we are now assessing acutes here on site - rather than in the community. So our *frontline* has now been pulled back from the community to literally the front door of our service.

Thats also the reality across the Hospital Board we work for...the Staff numbers are pulled back on site to no longer prevent and control...rather its to contain, not even that, to just manage.

The reality is that for the Health Sector here you will now have longer wait times...you will now have lowered standards of care due to key experienced Staff being off work...that in reality means your risks have increased.

While that again may not be an issue about mortality...its certainly a HUGE issue about accessibility to urgently required assistance.


I'm also aware that our local Emergency Services are experiencing similar effects.


Factor in the effects that must also be having in other workplaces, the shops, the petrol stations, the transport services, utilities etc etc etc.


Mortality isn't at the moment the big kick in the guts - its that the very infrastructure of your everyday life is slowly (or actually pretty quickly) grinding and winding down.


Those who know me KNOW I'm not one for panic or hype...though seriously I have some concerns.

I'm concerned that if the supposed *first wave* has hit hard on already stretched services to the point of effectively crippling us at certainly times during the day...then well...I'm sooooo not looking forward to having to deal with the effects of the second or third *wave*


All we can do is our best - hope for the best...and perhaps in some ways start more proactively preparing for perhaps 'not the best' happening.



Peace.





[edit on 25-6-2009 by alien]

reply to post by FlyersFan

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Amen, FF- all I see is APATHY- it's beginning to make me feel like there are only a few people taking this seriously.

Even the wealthy areas of california- Orange County, santa Barbara, etc., ar cancelling non-essential surgeries to accommodate the ill patients mounting at their doorsteps.

it's easy to feel abstraction about a crisis somewhere ELSE (we do everyday- we're at war in multiple regions, millions displaced in Pakistan, etc.), but usually the sheep wake up when something happens where they live- and yet....crickets chirping as deaths and infections double in 24 hours in developed countries- makes me wonder what's going on in under-developed countries. Honduras reported it's first death today- how many have died there who couldn't get to hospital?

South America is being brutalized; CDC just announced at least ONE MILLION Americans are infected (which means most, if not all, of us have been expoosed or will be soon). The UK is in emergency mode. What will it take for people to start paying attention?

We have, if we're lucky, 8-12 weeks left in the Northern Hemisphere before it hits the fan- I think less, personally- and the top headlines on the news are that Michael jackson and Farrah fawcett died. Sad? Yes. Important relative to the well-being of the planet? No.

EDIT: www.google.com...

Can't find link about Cali hospitals but will post when found

[edit on 26-6-2009 by CultureD]

www.latimes.com...

NOTE- Argentine pig caught flu from human !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[edit on 26-6-2009 by CultureD]

reply to post by BetweenMyths

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Betweenmyths-

I read that post in its entirety and got a chill. It seems the entire medical community (the real scientists- good clinicians and lab scientists) are well-aware of the severity and the horror of this epidemic. And did you note while reading that the man charged with carrying the samples out of canada only was charged with "not declaring foreign substances"????? From a Level 4 lab. It boggles the mind.

TPTB WANT this to get out- full stop.

reply to post by alien

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Alien,
Thank you for the detailed update. I have mentioned a few times on other threads, and read a great deal about not just morbiditiy and mortality rates hitting the world hard, but the social fabric breaking down.

It's a long read, but here's the latest from the Dept of Homeland Securtiy- a long and tedious (yet important, when you pick through the links) .pdf about preparedness and actions during a pandemic.

They include:
Neighborhood watch volunteers to coordinate with households who have ill occupants (and/or spying on the neighbors!); the essential miliarization of the municipal, local, state and federal law enforcement to either force vaccine, treatment, quarantine or isolation; the call for all health care workers who have taken other jobs or careers to report for 'volunteer" duty at hospitals or clinics (and the indemnification of the government against any or all legal action taken by them if they take ill, loose a regular job, etc.), and other measures that are draconian, to say the least:

www.pandemicflu.gov...

This link also instructs businesses aas to handling absenteeism, how to take care of employees "stuck" abroad- the lot. It's a long, but important read, and with the US leading the World with about half the infections, I imagine it will be implemented soon- if it hasn't been, already.

Was watching the news here in Canada, and the biggest concern here is the influx of sick people coming to the ER who suspect they have swine flu, but don't. The panic has caused emergency rooms to spill over when they are already over crowded.
Fear has taken precedence over common sense.

reply to post by AccessDenied

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That is the point of this thread - mortality rate being low just hides the seriousness of this Pandemic.

If hospital staff are falling sick, how long before shop workers and the haulage industry also grind to a halt due to sickness and/or worry.

Once there is no food in the shops then the SHTF big time.
I've being saying this since the beginning BUT IF YOU HAVEN'T ALREADY STOCK UP NOW, and advise friends and family to do the same.

Because when people in general do start waking up the shops are going to be emptied really quick.

www.scoop.co.nz...

news.therecord.com...




[edit on 26-6-2009 by johnb]

isn't it a good thing that the hospital staff are getting sick now, won't that boost their immunity for the next waves? also, if nurses stay away from hospital when they're ill...shouldn't everybody else be doing the same thing?

reply to post by pieman

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Well thats just it dude. The question is whether immunity gained due to exposure to it is for a particular strain, or whether that covers you for any further strains. Guess we'll see.

At the moment our Wards are blazened with large signs instructing people NOT to enter if they are experiencing flu-like symptoms...rather they are to return home and call a free Health-Line number that has been set up which will phone-triage and then instruct on further action. A radio/printed media campaign informing the same message is running at the moment nationwide also.

The last thing we want is for people to rock up with SwineFlu, sit around with other people in waiting rooms spreading it to all and sundry...but the reality is that many people are either too carefree, or don't feel they have it, just don't give a rats or a million other reasons and still keep a crowding right in there...

...but then again, you walk through a shop, sit in a picture theatre, on a bus...anywhere and you are potentially exposing yourself...so again, guess we'll see.


Peace.

No hospital panic evident here in Adelaide, SA ... life just goes on as normal.