While this represents analyists views, I wonder how many programs like the Rafale will be kept alive simply to keep an indistrial base in thier parent
countries. If you tally up the total market for replacements yeah you might get to 6000 airframes, but as noted towards the end of the article, if the
unit proce for the A creeps up to about 70 million a copy, then other airframes like the Super Hornet becomes more appealing
June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Lockheed Martin Corp., the world’s largest defense company, may double sales of its new F-35 fighter jet in a surge of
contracts that could squeeze competitors including Boeing Co. and Saab AB out of the market.
The U.S. and eight partner nations already plan to buy more than 3,000 of the warplanes, and with potential exports to countries including Israel,
South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Finland and Spain the total could “easily” reach 6,000, Brigadier General David Heinz, the top Pentagon official
for the F-35, said today.
Boeing and Saab may come to view the Lockheed model as a “program killer,” said Douglas Royce, a market analyst at Forecast International in
Newtown, Connecticut. The F-35 will control half the $17 billion warplane market by 2015, aviation consultants Teal Group estimate, bringing a level
of dominance unmatched even by the company’s F-16 and threatening to eliminate other primary manufacturers from the industry.
www.bloomberg.com...
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Ach... Teal Group don't know their arse from their elbow.
I seen something ridiculous coming out of them the other day... if I remember right the company involved came straight out at the Paris airshow and
practically called them a bunch of idiots.
Currently the US and UK are looking at 2,600 aircraft.
The number of fighters each country mentioned by Teal currently has is:
Israel ~380
Korea ~480
Japan ~390
Singapore ~145
Finland ~130
Spain ~ 125
Which is a total of 1,650 aircraft.
Lets assume for the sake of argument that each country is going to replace those on a 1:1 basis... a ridiculous assumption, but we'll run with it
anyway.
Combining gives a total of 4,250.
Additional airforces that have expressed an interest are (with current combat aircraft in brackets):
Australia (~90)
Canada (~100)
Denmark (~60)
Italy (~290 + ~75 Eurofighters)
Netherlands (~90)
Norway (~60)
Turkey (~480)
Or a sub total of: 1170
Again, making the ridiculous assumption of 1:1 replacements gives a final grand total of 5,420
Or still a shortfall of around 10%.
The question must be asked... were the Teal analysts on f**king drugs when they plucked that number from their a**?!?!?
But anyway, I do take your point Fred, a few of us were chewing the cud on this the other day in work, 7 manufacturers:
Boeing
Dassault
Eurofighter consortium
Lockheed
MiG
Saab
Sukhoi
The development costs of a jet are too big these days to sustain 7 manufacturers.
Personally, I can see Dassault and Saab becoming part of the Eurofighter group. The Russians are already looking at merging MiG and Su I think.
Which leaves Lockheed and Boeing.... hmmm.
[edit on 25/6/09 by kilcoo316]
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Originally posted by kilcoo316Personally, I can see Dassault and Saab becoming part of the Eurofighter group.
I dont think France or Sweden will allow such a thing to happen unless there are some clear agreements on the merger which allows the native countries
of those company's to have a larger stake in the Saab/Dassault part of the EF group. 0.02 cents ofcourse.
The Russians are already looking at merging MiG and Su I think.
Already on the way or even finished doing that. Final result will be that those two company's/corperations are part of an overdoming entity called:
UAC or Unified Aerospace Corperation.
Which leaves Lockheed and Boeing.... hmmm.
[edit on 25/6/09 by kilcoo316]
It could be an idea to swap components of each others company's to make each induvidual company stronger in its own right.
Lockheed gets all the military stuff and Boeing all the civilian stuff to make it more competeable against Airbus. again my 0.02 cents.
[edit on 25/6/2009 by James R. Hawkwood]
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As the way as the prices is constantly rising, Norway is allready considdering a new round of bidding for Next Gen fighter.
As the F-35 "Lightning 2" now is almost twice as expensive almost as the yanks presented during the bid rounds, while the JAS Grippen, stil has the
same price tagg.
Most likly as Norway will not sign any deal until the first plane is deliverd, they will cancel the purchuse and go for the JAS instead.
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