U.S. swine flu cases top 21,000 as deaths rise

I am posting this thread because I am still very confused about the hype surrounding H1N1. I understand its a new flu strain but the numbers are not adding up to me as to why there is so much fear mongering surrounding it.

Swine Flu Tops 21,000

I found this article that said that Swine flu cases have topped 21,000(21,449 to be exact) and the current death toll is at 87. Now when you divide to find the death rate of swine flu, it comes out to .00405. or .4%, not 4% but .4%

Now I found this info from the CDC regarding the standard flu:

A total of 56,247 deaths were attributed to flu and pneumonia in 2006, a rate of 18.8 deaths per 100,000 population, according to the CDC report.

The overall age-adjusted death rate in 2006 was 776.4 deaths per 100,000 population, compared with 799 per 100,000 in 2005, the CDC said in a news release. The preliminary number of total deaths was 2,425,900, down 22,117 from 2005.

When you calculate the percentage on the standard flu the death rate percentage comes out to .7%. This rate is higher than the current death rate for H1N1

There were 56,000 DEATHS from the regular flu in 2006 and we have had 87 from H1N1. I understand that this flu could mutate and become more virulent and that we are not currently in cold and flu season. But deaths from the flu do happen in non flu season months.


Can anyone explain to me why the hype for H1N1? When your standard flu, currently kills people at almost twice the rate as H1N1.


Am I missing something?

Every case is reported in the local news, every death is reported, its amazing how this is being hyped. I think someone wants people to freak out about this. Imagine if they reported deaths from regular flu on a daily basis? People would be running around like it was the end of the world.

It's getting hyped because people think it's so much worse than a regular flu epedemic. "It's a new name.... RUN!"
When people don't understand, they turn to someone who'll let them believe they understand, the MSM, and the MSM knows that what people don't know, sells papers and tops ratings. End of story.

The best thing you can do, is treating your body well, during both winter and summer. Just like you would to combat a regular flu.
FYI... In Denmark they already expect to have enough vacacine to combat next winters cases. There will be no mass scale pandemic that kills x mill. amount of people. This will go down in history as another scare, that kept people on their toes.

reply to post by iamcamouflage


I think you are missing something. This is not regular flu season for one. Then again we rarely track flu like this in off season so who knows. This could portend something worse when the weather changes and people are more closely confined.

Also this is the US where for most people health care is better.

The late fall, early winter will tell the true tell. For now it is just speculation as to what will happen.

I know about these things because I have been in charge of reporting influenza like illnesses in my profession and even though flu is not usually checked and tracked so often in the spring and summer months, this does seem to be an oddity.

reply to post by iamcamouflage


You do realize that all of those "mild" flu case's are people in the HOSPITAL..don't you? It isn't the total number of people who are infected it is those who the CDC deemed where the only one's to be tested. ONLY THOSE WHO ARE SICK ENOUGH TO BE ADMITTED TO A HOSPITAL OR ICU PERIOD.
That my dear has been going on for 2 month's now. Those 21,449 are people who are seriously ill and in the hospital. Look it up on the CDC site..it says so right in there. No test's unless admitted.
Also, say you get the flu....what you are ill from at the time of death is what is listed on your death certificate... so say you develop pnuemonia or a bacterial infection as a result of the flu and die... guess what you died of?
NOT SWINE FLU
To further the point the flu season in the USA ENDED week's ago. People should not be getting anything other than alergies right now.( week 20 is the offical end of flu season) It isn't just some new name it is a virus that is proving to be a huge problem all over the world.

I'm sick of people saying swine flu isn't that bad than giving incorrect numbers on who's infected or who's dead.

flutracker.rhizalabs.com...

That is the correct infections globally so far there's been over 399 deaths from around the world.

Originally posted by Pointman
I'm sick of people saying swine flu isn't that bad than giving incorrect numbers on who's infected or who's dead.

flutracker.rhizalabs.com...

That is the correct infections globally so far there's been over 399 deaths from around the world.

My article was only referencing the cases and deaths in the US, not the world. And I really dont know what to believe with regards to the severity of this flu. I'm not saying it isnt that bad. Im just confused about why its being treated so different when it seems to have a lower mortality rate than the common yearly flu.

reply to post by iamcamouflage


I feel the same way. I have felt from the start that there is more to this story than we are being told, and while I am sorry for those who have died and for those who have lost loved ones, I do not understand why the H1N1 panic, as opposed to other killer diseases. There is an agenda here that is not for the common good.

Can you please tell me, are people in the States wearing masks?

Originally posted by xoxo stacie
reply to post by iamcamouflage

 

You do realize that all of those "mild" flu case's are people in the HOSPITAL..don't you? It isn't the total number of people who are infected it is those who the CDC deemed where the only one's to be tested. ONLY THOSE WHO ARE SICK ENOUGH TO BE ADMITTED TO A HOSPITAL OR ICU PERIOD.
That my dear has been going on for 2 month's now. Those 21,449 are people who are seriously ill and in the hospital. Look it up on the CDC site..it says so right in there. No test's unless admitted.
Also, say you get the flu....what you are ill from at the time of death is what is listed on your death certificate... so say you develop pnuemonia or a bacterial infection as a result of the flu and die... guess what you died of?
NOT SWINE FLU
To further the point the flu season in the USA ENDED week's ago. People should not be getting anything other than alergies right now.( week 20 is the offical end of flu season) It isn't just some new name it is a virus that is proving to be a huge problem all over the world.

I see your point about getting swine flu and then dying from pneumonia or a bacterial infection but with that said, you would see the same errors in the common flu numbers. Based on that logic, we could venture to say that the standard flu numbers are misrepresented because I'm sure there are many people admitted to the hospital for dehydration from the flu and end up dying of something else and the death certificate states pneumonia or something else.

The point you make that i seem to agree with, is the fact that people are still contracting this virus well into the summer. Normally this is the down time for viruses. And that is somewhat strange.

Two words: False flag.

reply to post by liveandlearn


Glad you brought up that influeza is NOT a reportable disease to DC UNLESS it occurrs "off-season". It hasn't been reportable since 1918, unless it happens here in the states, in the summer.

Flu doesn't work it's way around in the summer- a few people catch it, but it's generally a fall/winter illness (and still, not reported unless it's a de novo strain).

People should NOT be dying of flu in June in the US- no matter how heavy and out of shape our populace is, right?

reply to post by xoxo stacie


Where on the CDC website does it say you have to be hospitilized to be reported as a swine flu victim? Everything I read in the media is saying most people are coming down with mild cases being treated at home and recovering within 2 weeks. The people with underlying medical conditions are the people who are dying.

The worry is not what it currently is, but what has the potential to become. And while I think it's been over-hyped to a degree (especially on this board), I think it's also not wise to just dismiss it. If it were to take that low chance path of mutating into something nastier, during flu season, it has the potential to cause a lot of illness and death.

Of course, there is a low chance for this, but the fact that there is no good defense for this thing, makes it a real threat. No sense getting in a complete panic, nor even overreacting and putting yourself in a bunker for 8 months, but also not wise to just dismiss it like it's the regular flu.. as it's not.

The "rates" of flu deaths in the US are a statistical extrapolation- there is no annual "flu death rate" that is accurate, put forth by the CDC. Flu is NOT a reportable illness in the US. So each year, the CDC gathers up the hospital admission rates, extrapolate whether a pneumonia death, for example, they THINK was caused by flu, and generate a number for the country based on those numbers. It is as unscientific as possible. Everyone throws around this 36,000 number of seasonal flu deaths in the US- we have absolutely NO IDEA how many do or do not die from flu each year.- it's made up- like TV ratings for the country made from 5,000 phone calls to homes, and then made to fit a general statistical structure based on a VERY small N group.

The reason this is being charted is becasue for the first time in decades people are tracking a novel strain of influenza, our of flu seaason, and one to which none of us has novel immunity- one that is highly contagious, and, unfotunately, is lethal. We're somewhere around, what, 170-200 deaths globally, right? Those are REPORTED numbers- they are tested by WHO or CDC, with repeatable PCR, and published. Can you imagine how many people are dead or dying, or in danger, from this bug whom we don't know about?

I find it unconscionable- unfathomable- insane- that the "world" is not making a bigger deal of this than we are. It's 95 degrees in most of the US; nowhere near flu season, and people are catching this like bronchitis going through a freshman college dorm. If people want to ignore it, or to laugh at those of us who choose not to do so, that is their prerogative. I would advise them, though, to look around you- because the world will be very different next year. New laws will be written (as they have in Massachusets and Australia- and probably all of the US and UK- perhaps the EU; China, etc.); many, many people will be ill this fall- the economy will be effected drastically, and if this continues to burn as it is doing, be certain that you will know someone who is hospitalized, or dead, or permanently damaged from this virus, and/or the anti-virals or vaccine attempted to halt it.

On a planet of nearly 7 billion people, if the mortality rate of this strain is only 1%--and if everyone catches it, 70 MILLION people could die. Will everyone catch it? No. Is it POSSIBLE? Yes.

It's estimated that the 1918 strain killed between 50-80 million people. It's an inconceivable number- it will effect the very fabric of society.

I'm not trying to be a doosday, fearmonger. I'm trying to create some perspective. The numbers of reports worldwide, the hopitalizations and the deaths from this flu are rising- quickly- and at a time when flu ought not to be epidemic in the Norht. The Southern Hemisphere is proving the paradigm of pandemic flu- mutations, increased hospitalizations, etc. I want to know wht people aren't making a bigger deal of this than they are.

When a young, healthy child, or a teenager takes ill and dies in 48 hours, why AREN'T people going to general quarters? This is going to change reality in front of our eyes. Even if you think the earth is self-correcting- that we're too populated (we are) and there are not enough resources (there aren't) it's still a terrible event to behold in our lifetimes.

[edit on 24-6-2009 by CultureD]

[edit on 24-6-2009 by CultureD]

reply to post by spellbound


Spellbound-

In some areas (large cities, events, subways, etc., ) people are wearing masks. Unfortunately, not as many are wearing them as should do.

We wear them to go to the stores, when I see my neuro, etc., and people look at us strangely, as they cough and hack all over the place.

There is a seriously sad stigma here about masks, which has always bothered me- espescially as I worked with bugs for so long and lived in PPE.

People do ask me in the suburbs if I'm ill, but in Chicago, no one looks twice- espescially the European and Asian populations.

I've not been to New York, but I know the city is having a particularly hard time, and on news programs many people are wearing masks on a daily walk down the street.

So, it's a mixed bag- which is ironic, as we have nearly half the cases on the globe. God forbid people mess up their makeup on the way to their kids' soccer games, eh?

Today drove in and out of Chicago at rush hours- 45 minutes each way- normally 2 hours each way.Are people on holiday? Staying home from work to stay well? Ill? We wouldn't know because the media is telling us nothing except that so-and-so has died, and 10 more schools or daycares or camps are closed- that's it. 2 good friends are nurses at 2 different hospitals in the area, both of which are full with respiratory illness (ILI patients) and both are taking all their vacation time in advance of the autumn.

Yahoo News link

"ATLANTA – Health officials estimate that as many as 1 million Americans now have the new swine flu. Lyn Finelli, a flu surveillance official with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, voiced the estimate at a vaccine advisory meeting Thursday in Atlanta.

The estimate is based on mathematical modeling. Nearly 28,000 U.S. cases have been reported to the CDC, accounting for roughly half the world's cases. The U.S. count includes 3,065 hospitalizations and 127 deaths.

An estimated 15 million to 60 million Americans catch seasonal flu each year."

Only 28,000 cases reported but they estimate 1,000,000? And we are at a level 6 pandemic when up to 60,000,000 get the flu each year anyways?



[edit on 6/25/2009 by AnonymousMoose]

[edit on 6/25/2009 by AnonymousMoose]

Even though I get attacked every time I've posted in this forum...

CT has started updating cases weekly, every Wednesday. Right now they have listed that only one case is in my town, when there are at least ten that I know of that have been confirmed. Even the last time they updated, the number didn't change, it's still listed as one.

So um. That's weird.