Where's the proof of the world unwinding USD

Gerald Celente says that the world is unwinding USD. (Jun 8 Coast to coast interview) The Chinese laughed Geitner off the stage when he said on his trip to China that the USD is strong.

I'd like to see that data that shows the Chinese getting out of USD. I'd like to see the facts showing "the world" unwinding USD. According to Celente the entire system is collapsing in on America.

I just don't see it.

Here's a report that Russia MAY invest in a new IMF bond but it is characterized as a political statement more than an actual move.

I'd like to see actual data showing the Chinese selling US Treasuries.

Last week it was also announced that Russia and Brazil had joined China in plans to diversify their debt holdings by becoming the first countries to buy a new bond to be issued by the IMF. Russia said some reserves may be moved out of U.S. dollars to fund the IMF purchase. However, one analysts said the move appeared to be more of a political statement rather than a serious attempt to diversify their assets away from their large holdings in U.S. debt.

source

[edit on 16-6-2009 by venividivici]

Well this particular situation isn't something that has a lot of information on it. Like you will here Russia and China rattle the saber and what not as kind of a warning, but something like this is a coordinated move. It takes a few months to get stuff in line and then one day you wake up and the world has changed.

There really won't be any "evidence" of it so to speak. The only evidence that you need is to see the government is manipulating the market. One day you will wake up and everything will be changed.

Part of the proof can be found in the records of the Federal Reserve'sPermanent Open Market Operations - Outright Coupon Purchase

This details all the Treasuries that the FED is buying back from the debt holders as well as how many are offered and how many are ultimately bought.

In ALL instances you will find that WAY more are offered than the FED agrees to buy back.

These T holders are more than happy to unload the debt, it's just not being bought back in the amounts that the Treasury holders would like.

ETA: For example TODAY'S buyback results:

Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $6,450 (the amount the Fed bought back)

Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) : $31,316 (the amount of T's the holders were attempting to get the FED to buy back)

[edit on 6/16/09 by redhatty]

Look closely at this table...

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES

See anything interesting happening?

It's much like a game of musical chairs...everybody is dancing until the music stops....the music is about to stop...

well If I was the world and I happened to have large amounts of dollars that I think will lose value in the upcoming future, I wouldn't sell all my dollars at once and create a panic and lose the value of what I have, I would sell some, then buy back a little less, get the price up again, sell some more... buy again, etc, etc... I would manipulate the markets to the best of my ability to get the most value for my dollar while I still can, then when I know my exposure is limited, and I have secured my funds in other methods, then..I sell off and watch what happens.

reply to post by worldwatcher


Exactly what I was getting at with that chart...you'll only observe a trickle..when the dam bursts...well it's gonna happen all at once

Here's some info from today:

Link to story

June 16 (Bloomberg) — Brazil, Russia, India and China are considering buying each other’s bonds and swapping currencies to lessen dependence on the U.S. dollar, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s top economic adviser said.

reply to post by RolandBrichter


I guess I'm having a difficult time making sense of this graph. Apologies. It seems to me that with very few exceptions, all of the other nations have a lot more of our bills than they did a year ago. Am I reading that right? And if I am, how does that indicate the dollar is being dumped?

reply to post by KSPigpen


Fair question...

Ask yourself what a "Caribbean Banking Center" is...

Why would that entity be the 3rd largest foreign holder of T-bills?

Why did their allocation shrink through Apr 09?

Look at the smaller countries...then look at the number at the bottom of the chart...shrinking foreign investment...at a time the Fed can least afford a pullback...the big boys are using proxies to do their bidding, or should I say selling? But they don't want to do it all at once...they want to do it in a way that nobody else notices....China has written the dollar off....that's why they're buying commodities at a record pace...the entirety of the Baltic Dry Index runup has been due to China's buying spree...exchange dollars for intrinsic wealth as fast as possible before the collapse...



Edit for spelling


[edit on 16-6-2009 by RolandBrichter]

[edit on 16-6-2009 by RolandBrichter]

[edit on 16-6-2009 by RolandBrichter]

Hi venividivici. Open market Operations , both temporary and permanent , are conducted between the Fed , and US banks. In a nutshell , they are simply the mechanism for controlling the amount of liquidity (reserves) in the banking system/Fed Funds Rate.

Primer

As you can see , Fed POMO's/TOMO's , along with the amounts tendered/accepted won't tell us anything about international capital flows (foreign appetite for US debt)...for that information , we refer to the TIC.

Conveiniently , the most recent data was released yesterday....

TREASURY INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL DATA FOR APRIL

Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been negative $8.8 billion.

Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities decreased $39.4 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills decreased $44.5 billion.

Monthly net TIC flows were negative $53.2 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $58.4 billion, and net foreign official flows were $5.2 billion.

Full Text

Or with calculator and notebook in hand , you can parse the country specifics yourself by following these links.

Ultimately what you will find is that net TIC flows were in the red for the month of April 09.

I see that RolandBrichter is on the ball....as usual


GL

BRIC are going towards diversification of Currency......that does not mean they are going to ditch the US$. Lets assume that China decides to Ditch the US$, they cannot do so without causing panic on the market which will see the US$ fall like a sack of rock and China will not be able to get rid of all its US$ quickly enough to avoid massive losses. So it is not in the interest of BRIC to allow the $ collapse without sustaining massive losses.

The other thing that one should take into account is that Investors around the world still regards the US$ as a safe haven in times of trouble and it will take really a lot of time to change that perception. I believe that the US$ will remain the dominant currency for a very very very very very looooooooooooonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnggggggggggggg time and the dream of many to see the US$ collapse will remain a dream.

reply to post by rattan1


You don't fight wars assuming you won't take any losses. The idea in this cat and mouse game is to minimize your losses, and maximize theirs. It's the very same corporatocracy we created for ourselves here only they're better at it.

[edit on 17-6-2009 by projectvxn]

Originally posted by rattan1
Lets assume that China decides to Ditch the US$, they cannot do so without causing panic on the market which will see the US$ fall like a sack of rock and China will not be able to get rid of all its US$ quickly enough to avoid massive losses. So it is not in the interest of BRIC to allow the $ collapse without sustaining massive losses.

It appears that China is hedging against a dollar collapse...they are buying commodities at a fever pace...exchanging dollars for items with intrinsic value as fast as they dare...if the dollar goes kaput, commodities will skyroket, leaving China and all nations with a huge natural resource store (Russia) at a comparative advantage...

Of course, nothing is written in stone here...just making observations and trying to connect the dots

Ok, so who do I believe. You financial geeks (in a good way) on ATS, MSM, or my own eyes?

I get what you guys are saying. China and the world are buying up commodities with USD in little spurts as not to panic the market. But then I read an article today that China is only selling off dollars becuase they need $$ for their own economic stimulus package.


source

It was the first month since June 2008 that Beijing failed to purchase more US T-bills.

So, one would assume despite the gloomy economic picture, China has been buying more USD each month than selling for the last year.

That just doesn't jive with what you guys are saying.

I'm still confused.

I've been waiting for the other financial shoe to drop since last October but all I hear is fear-mongering.

Go with your own perceptions...if you think things will be hunkey dory, then act accordingly...you must prove it to yourself, by yourself. Don't buy into anything we say on ATS or any other source unless you have convinced yourself through proper research and study...

Good Luck,

RB

Sure here's your proof:

China selling US bonds and not rolling all maturing debt into new US treasuries.
Article

Russia and China to use their own currencies in trade with each other instead of US Dollars.
Article

Russia and Brazil reducing US dollar exposure.
Article

Keep in mind this has all happened in the last few weeks. Just the beginning....

[edit on 17-6-2009 by johnny2127]

Originally posted by RolandBrichter

It appears that China is hedging against a dollar collapse...they are buying commodities at a fever pace...exchanging dollars for items with intrinsic value as fast as they dare...if the dollar goes kaput, commodities will skyroket, leaving China and all nations with a huge natural resource store (Russia) at a comparative advantage...

Of course, nothing is written in stone here...just making observations and trying to connect the dots

Good analysis. You are right China has started to hedge its position. However, the fact is China is still the biggest holder of US debt and there will be no US$ collapse as long as this remains true and I don't think China can unload their US$ without attracting attention and creating panic.

reply to post by johnny2127



Thanks for the reply but your links have already been mentioned in my OP and throughout the thread. They actually support my assertion that there is NO unwinding of USD.

Zhao said the sell-off could have been in order to pay for its own economic stimulus package.

your source

The dollar’s status has come into question as leaders of the BRIC nations consider substituting other assets for their dollar holdings

Russian central bank First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev’s comment on June 10 that Russia may sell some of its U.S. bonds to buy International Monetary Fund notes helped push 10-year yields on Treasuries to the highest level since October.

your source

A 30-year Treasury auction this week showed overseas demand for U.S. government securities remains robust. Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 49 percent of the $11 billion in bonds, the biggest percentage since the Treasury reintroduced the 30-year security in 2006.

your source



OBE1:
Thanks for the interesting data. I looked through some specific countries and the overall data and I am still unconvinced there is a concerted effort the unload US treasuries. I don't know why there seems to be a "feeling" that the world will abandon the US, the data doesn't seem to support it IMHO. Looking at the overall buy/sell US treasury data there have been recent sales of US Treasuries but nothing out of the norm. There have been periods in recent years that have seen big sell offs and big purchases.