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Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.
Mesquita (The Strategy of Campaigning) purports to show how we can predict... and engineer the future with applied game theory in this provocative tutorial. Mesquita has spent 30 years refining his approach to the science of predictioneering, and claims a 90% accuracy rate for his mathematical model that predicts choices based on the self-interest of decision makers. Although he argues that accurate prediction relies on science, he cannot escape the reality that the numbers in his model are based on human, i.e., fallible, assumptions and estimates. The author admits to a few mistakes—he predicted that former first lady Hillary Clinton's health-care reform would become law—but blames any missteps on unforeseen events and uses his model to boldly predict that President Obama is unlikely to quash the terrorist influence in Pakistan and that global warming will prove immune to government prescriptions but will produce its own solutions. Mesquita claims perhaps too much for his game theory model, but his cogently argued and fascinating brief will appeal to anyone interested in complex national-security issues.
I have always considered the spiral example to be a great way to visualize the idea of the cycles as I thought that there was one single spiral leading to zero point (this thought was reinforced by constant talk about the late 1700s being the on the same frequency as we are currently on). Now with the thought that the cycle is said to end at different times, such as 1945 and 2012, I am a bit more confused.
Originally posted by cellardoor1976
Evasius; in a recent post, you had requested web-bot predictions for the late Oct. scenario's. I've been a web-bot subscriber for one year +. ALTA report,(6 month projections), as well as "Shape of things to come",(quarterly). It was mentioned by a poster that "2 billion would die", due to a nuclear attack. The last SOTTC scenario, differs somewhat from the prior ALTA report, which =One billion will die from fallout due to Israeli attack on Irans underground "weapons"(radioactive/ chemical/bio , circling the globe nine times., vs. nuclear/disease/econo collapse of equal # dead, respectfully. The timeline for the SOTTC "disaster" runs through Nov/Dec. An updated report of SOTTC will be available 9/15/09. If you have questions about specifics, feel free to ask...
Originally posted by packinmomma
reply to post by octotom
There are also many Christians who believe the rapture will occur pre-tribulation. There are numerous indicators that we are in "the season" of fulfilling the rapture/tribulation prophecy. To a Christian, the rapture not only means that Christians are "taken up" to be with the Lord during tribulation to avoid God's wrath poured out on a Christ-rejecting world... it also means the Holy Spirit is removed from earth.
Trying not to wander too far off the thread... I'll TRY to keep this uncomplicated, as to how I believe the rapture may correlate to 2012. Please bear in mind, I find prophecy a bit difficult to explain. My apologies in advance if it gets wordy.
The Bible speaks of Israel being re-established as a nation, and that Jesus will return before that generation, who witnessed this event, passes away.
(Matthew 24:34, "...this generation will certainly not pass away until all these things have happened.")
May 14, 1948 marks the day that Israel announced to the world that they had officially become a nation again. With prophecy of their re-establishment fulfilled, it begs the question, how many years is "a generation"? Many biblical scholars, but not all, indicate "about" 70 years. If this is true, that would mean Jesus returns to earth in approximately 2018. Biblical prophecy also puts His return at the very end of the 7-year tribulation period. So... 2018-ish return, less the 7 years of tribulation = 2011-ish rapture. I say "ish" because "a generation" may not be exactly 70 years, and this puts us very close to the 2012 timeline. Could it be that 2012 is the year God removes His protective covering from earth?
The original text was written in Hebrew and has been studied... the language "this generation", in the scripture referred to, could also be interpreted as the individuals who were in the room when the meeting took place and witnessed the decision to re-establish the nation of Israel. Recently, I read that there is only one man left, out of all those who attended that meeting, and he is something-like 91 years old! Could it be that the above prophetic scripture is related to this particular man's eventual passing? And will it take place in 2012? Only time will tell.
Either way I look at it, we are getting closer.
On another note, I do recall that Biblical prophecy also describes a "changing of time" during the tribulation... I'm wondering if this could mean a change in how time is measured? or the abbreviations BC and AD changed? calendars? Perhaps, THIS is what the Mayans knew would happen in 2012?
Please note: I post this not to offend other views, but to correlate this Christian's beliefs to 2012 and the end of God's presence on earth.
Originally posted by cellardoor1976
Greetings Evasius, (anyone for that matter)
I was awakened last night by this burning question, and need answers...
Elementary, I'm sure, but need an explanation. Can time exist without energy? Can energy exist without time???. That's my question. Let me explain my thinking... Take a time line, let's say 5 seconds long, equals 14cm linear. Take that same time line, fractal, influenced by energy/ electromagnetic forces, (peaks and valleys), equals 21cm in the same amount of time. ( ex., EKG, EEG, Seismograph, etc..). The overall measurement of the line is LONGER, in the same amount of time. Is there an equation to explain this? Can energy bend/warp time? Sooo, if one could negate the effects of energy on time, would that equal extended time?
Thanks in advance!
Originally posted by Valeri
Whatever may or may not happen leading up to december 21 2012,one thing is for certain. There will be no ''rapture''. Not to spoil anybodys feelings,but this is coming from inner knowledge.
Whether anything at all will happen in 2012 remains to be seen. But nothing will happen when that last standing 91-year old dies-no matter if in a decade or 1 year.
At this point, timewave zero has to prove itself around the end of october. If nothing of great novelty happens(which is supposed to be greater than june and april and even september/october of 2008) then it pretty much is debunked by me. If at least something of novel proportions happens,I'm giving it another chance.