A network-wide series of reports next week on "The New Normal" will look at how businesses and personal habits have changed in the wake of the
recession. "World News," "Nightline" and "Good Morning America" will all do stories, culminating in a "20/20" special on June 19
lots of coverage during prime time hours and i suppose other MSM channels may do something similiar
the gov't are master's (or try to be at perception management) this has been of growing importance to them as our economy has become more and more
dependent on consumption and thus confidence and feelings of wealth....also it is true that this is used because it works to a degree and helps
maintain enough optomism that IMO positively effects social "mood"....and also adds to ensure that something called the rule of law is followed in
enough degree to keep society functioning soundly..and not revolting or challenging leaders
Lots of people hoped that this was just a regular recession in the sense that businesses will soon after get back to hiring workers (like they always
do.....and the "economic cycle will resume" anew.........the problem is this is not the case....
Now you can listen and hope to "establishment experts" on TV who never predicted a thing right but are convincing none the less......or you can look
at history and realize that most recessions are caused by the fed tightening credit and trying to cool credit expansion (and inflation) down......and
then after a period of "tightening" where they accomplish this .....then they loosen again and the economy bounces back....usually a little
the difference is the fed didn't cause this recession thru tightening.....the fed merely tried to stop the economy from collapsing from OVER in
debtedness and leverage which eventually started the dominoe's when asset prices tied to tremendous leverage and debt began to fall.....Ray diallo of
bridgewater (money manager and John maudin economist /money magager....as well as NUMEROUS other economists with blogs and loyal followers..not to
mention "history" point out that this "downturn" was led by a over hang of debt that was beginnning to deleverage.....i.e a debt deflation
process......this process is known in History to be synonomous with DEPRESSIONS.(read that again and do some searching of your own to discover that
truth).......some are less bad than others.....japan had massive saving's and a relatively strong world economy which cushioned them we do not....but
we do have the world reserve currency.....but that is not an equal trade off in this circumstance...(and we may not have it for long)
now not every depression is the same and there is hope that this depressionary process may be = to a long severe recession or "soft depression"
but the MSM has to prepare the people to adjust their expectations for the recovery down a notch or three....so that they don't become Too angry when
things don't bounce back and so they can judge politicians more "gently".....as well as i'm sure some other reasons (which haven't popped into my
and this provides the gov't with an oPP....which involves encouraging people to prepare for the inevitable future..seeing things from a "LENS"
that is brighter i.e "a new normal".... not from a less optomistic but equally accurate one of " a very long recession or depression type unwind
with faltering standards of living".....
ABC News President David Westin said the network has held a series of off-the-record meetings with economists, business leaders and regulators
over the past year and he was struck by how they all agreed on one point: When the recession is over, things won't go back to the way they were
read that again and understand that perspective has the media's most positive way of putting it that things ......aren't really bouncing back for
the people....but t's a new type of "recovery" with high unemployment ....low earnings..(for company's)......less luxury's....etc
"I was concerned that people in the media hadn't done enough to prepare people for that and we had to start thinking about it," Westin
the one thing that stands out from this piece that relates to the stock market is that future earnings WILL Not bounce back in the process the economy
is undergoing ......and this is not yet PRICED in to the stock markets...IMO ....because 3'rd and 4'th Q earnings are still forecast to turn
positive and actually are quite agressve for 4'th Q (never mind earnins have been revised down like 12 straight times) don't get in the way of a
hope based rally and tons of liquidity sloshing around.......but the thing joe 6 pack may want to take away is that although the stock market has
turned a good rally you may want to start thinking about just being happy you recouped some losses and get out before another potental leg down. I
think alot of $ could flow into any stock markets where the country's show better earnings potential going forward....i.e places where the
consumer's are not "tapped out" will have more attractive valuations
This could occur earlier due to the bond market sucking funds out of equity's or later (around early Aug i have heard mentioned) when it becomes more
clear that earnings in the 4'th Q will not be coming back....like the usual recession process....
[edit on 10-6-2009 by cpdaman]