It looks like you're using an Ad Blocker.

Please white-list or disable AboveTopSecret.com in your ad-blocking tool.

Thank you.

 

Some features of ATS will be disabled while you continue to use an ad-blocker.

 

Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates

page: 2
6
<< 1    3 >>

log in

join
share:

posted on Jun, 10 2009 @ 09:45 PM
link   
I don't want to sound like a chicken little, but I think the probability is a bit beyond hyperinflation..

There is some speculation from a few sources that President Obama's latest world tour was to drum up support of U.S. treasuries that mature and must be sold. Like soon. Like tomorrow, perhaps. Now, it's possible too that the reaction to that bid is somewhat cool. What's the paper worth? hmmmmm. I've seen articles on a few sites, such as "China questions US bonds". It seems to paint a fair distrust of US funds.

Now, I'm no George Ure by a LONG shot, but from what I'm guessing, if countries abroad do not buy the U.S. debt this week, then there is a significant problem. This will lead to lots of capital flowing out of the U.S. instead of into it. Fed's solution can only be to print more money, thus causing still more inflation.

Now, consider all the national finances that are hinging upon the U.S. recovery. mmmmmmm-hmmmm. So, this week seems really pivotal to me.

Of course, I'm not much of a financial person, so there's a 72.7% possibility that the above are merely the ramblings of a kindly, but misinformed whackamole.

I wouldn't wanta bet on it tho.

How's your garden coming along?




posted on Jun, 11 2009 @ 10:38 AM
link   
reply to post by argentus
 


I think you have it all corect. China made it clear they want out. I have been waiting for the Treasuries bubble to burst.

The IMF will soon be putting a value on the US dollar (SDR's). What would that be a negative .75

It does concern me that many wont be able to grow their own food. I have some laying hens and might buy a milking goat. Sounds gross but would keep us alive.



posted on Jun, 12 2009 @ 08:13 AM
link   
reply to post by wonderworld
 


I agree about the treasuries...... It seems in front of us all, and yet most seem to just plod forward, hoping perhaps if they do things as they always have, that will hold everything together. Of course, in one sense, many of us don't believe that we have the options to do otherwise.

If we KNEW everything was going to change radically for the worst in say, three months, would we change things? I believe so. Thus, I have to act as though that's the direction, but moving that way with goals that will improve our lives, regardless of the outcome....... like gardening......

doesn't sound gross to me at all. I love goat cheese; goat meat is very common down here in the Carib -- I don't fancy it myself, but I certainly would before I would starve. It's pretty common here to stake out goats in areas where invasive plants grow.

Chickens -- I'm currently engaged in repelling a wild chicken insurgency.
I don't want to kill them, as I don't want to [yet] eat them, however I do want to keep them away from the house and in the bush, away from our garden. I've thought about containing them in a coop, but................ as yet there are more important priorities.

Well, we'll just have to watch and see.

cheers



posted on Jun, 13 2009 @ 09:49 AM
link   
reply to post by argentus
 


Yes, I guess we can just hope for the best for our economy. The numbers sure dont look good.

Are those chickens yours or a neighbors? If they are too old they may not be layers and end up as meat birds. I didnt know they ate goat down there. I can handle goat cheese, not sure about milk or eating one. I agree I wouldnt hesitate if I was starving. Your avatar looks eatable under certain Circumstances too.



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 12:41 AM
link   
Inflation is only going to make these times tougher. the economy is slipping and businesses are closing. we cant afford for gas and food to go up in price it just wont be good



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 03:25 AM
link   
So when is the best time to change a variable rate mortgage to a fixed interest rate?

My mortgage is currently 2.75% but a fixed rate is 5.5% so I don't want to change it too soon but don't want to leave it too late either.

The difference I'll be paying for a fixed rate, per month is about €200 more. If interest rates only go up to 12% then I'd be paying approx. €800 more per month (more than double) so it's definitely worth getting a fixed rate, for peace of mind. The question is - when?

I've also noticed the cost of things going up and just received notice that my electricity is also going up by 5%. Not a great recipe really - ppl losing jobs or working for next to nothing just to keep some money coming in but the cost of everything is going up.



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 09:03 AM
link   
reply to post by honda_queen
 


Cool, found you here too. You are just a bit behind me it seems, LOL

Yes things will continue to fall apart before the start to rebuild. What's on the other side is what bothers me,

P.S I figured out why. You posted at 10p.m and you know I'm in bed by 9. Funny.

[edit on 30-6-2009 by wonderworld]



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 09:23 AM
link   

Originally posted by Maya00a
So when is the best time to change a variable rate mortgage to a fixed interest rate?

My mortgage is currently 2.75% but a fixed rate is 5.5% so I don't want to change it too soon but don't want to leave it too late either.

The difference I'll be paying for a fixed rate, per month is about €200 more. If interest rates only go up to 12% then I'd be paying approx. €800 more per month (more than double) so it's definitely worth getting a fixed rate, for peace of mind. The question is - when?

I've also noticed the cost of things going up and just received notice that my electricity is also going up by 5%. Not a great recipe really - ppl losing jobs or working for next to nothing just to keep some money coming in but the cost of everything is going up.


I know somewhat about this since I worked at the VA property management for years, however I dont give financial advice.

High inflation is potentially on the horizon, thus a higher prime rate. To put this in perspective, 6% prime is the historic norm.

There are many variables, the length of the loan, refinance charges bring your balance higher, another appraisal fee, etc. You are lucky to have a low rate of interest.

I usually recommend a 15 year contract. It takes thousands off the inteerest payments. The first 5 years of a home loan nearly all the payments are applied to interest. To get around this pay an extra amount each month and you would be surprised how quickly you pay down the balance.

I dont know when the new higher interest rates will take effect they change by the minute. As soon as you find the right rate ask them to lock you in.

Your Mortgage company knows your history and can weigh the benefits of which type of loan you get. They are their to help.

The process can take between 3 days and 45 max, unless an unforeseen problem arises like a hidden lein on the title, etc.

FHA is similar but not backed by the government.



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 07:34 PM
link   
The inflation that is coming will not be as bad as wiemar or even the 70's. . Please dont take this post the wrong way. It is not meant to put anyone down. Just to state the fed's thinking.

The reason the fed reserve and the treasury can print all this money without inflation is because the credit collapse of 2006-2008 destroyed trillions. Wiped it off the map completely out of existance. The current printing of money isnt even close to the equity wiped out. Thus why we are not seeing inflation now or probably not anytime in the future. So long as the money printed is being backed at the auctions there wont be any problems at all. And so far it is. Emphasis on so far.



The only chance of massive hyperinflation takes riegn is if there is a clear indication of a recovering economy and the printing presses are still running. But this wont happen cause climbing tax revenues will likely take the place of printing money out of thin air unless we are double digit trillions in debt. But this wont happen because there is a point to where people stop buying US gov. debt. If they still print after people stop buying then yes there is a huge problem.


But so far, the money put into the system will not cause inflation. bailout, stimulus, all that combined wont cause inflation. Again, the money printed was bought by foriegn entitys or investors. How we pay them back in 5 years? who knows. probably 80% tax rates on everybody



[edit on 30-6-2009 by Spartak_FL]

[edit on 30-6-2009 by Spartak_FL]



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 08:08 PM
link   
reply to post by Spartak_FL
 


That's nice wishful thinking. Let's just knock on wood. Here is a good comparison to Hyperinflation;

Compare the United States and Brittan to The Weimar Germany Hyperinflation:



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 08:12 PM
link   
You cant make the comparison. I read that thread awhile ago.


One more time, the money we have printed to date is backed by Investors or foriegn countrys buying the debt with actual foriegn currency. Yes it sucks cause we have a huge deficiet. And eventually that has to be paid back. With more debt? Who knows thats undecided but that wont lead to inflation either that will just lead to more debt. But all this bull about there being inflation given the bailouts in the last 6 months is just that, bull.

Again one more time. The money that was printed, being printed and will probably be printed for the next few years is completely accounted for on treasury auctions. They are not just printing money out of thin air with no backing to it whatsoever. Trust me


The money wiemar printed was not backed by anything. Not gold nor anything. There will be no wheel barrows. Maybe 10% in 2011 when we recover but no wheelborrows. The fundamentals arent there for a wiemar repeat.



[edit on 30-6-2009 by Spartak_FL]



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 08:20 PM
link   
The real honest to god indicator of coming inflation is when the treasury bonds/US debt goes un purchased and we continue spending anyway. So far it hasnt come to that.

[edit on 30-6-2009 by Spartak_FL]



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 08:51 PM
link   
oh btw how do they get new money into people's hands or banks to lend

or how long till there is a massive shortage of supply to drive up prices.....cause demand ain't risin.....

the only way i see a inflation is thru some new nationalized banking system because the gov't ISN"T in business to Make money like private banks....the gov't may actually lend to stave off riots lol......either that or some massive devaluation of currency's against gold or IMF SDR's currency is the only way i see....happening...

there will be no inflation just more constant threats and fits of "coming inflation" mostly to stimulate people to spend...(before prices rise too high).....does anyone understand that piece of the psychological pie


edit to add; and yes there have been trillions of (non tangible) electronic entries created (1. to provide artificial DEBT IV's to create liquidity in credit markets....these markets BTW show no hope of getting off these...also some addition trillion or so of the "non tangible" imaginary IN case of emergency i.e insurance trillions are there In Case that a run on depositors or money market account occurs) in other word the threat of the money being there is used to maintain confidence in the Deposits of consumers and in money market accounts....) This is not monetary inflation....this is Trillions in electronic entry credit funding necessary to sustain the artificial functioning of these markets on LIFE SUPPORT... and insurance to sustain some type of confidence in depositors......(non nationalized banks whose goals are to make profits) will not lend wildly in this enviornement of rising defaults.....until uncle ben starts mak'n 5,000 tangible bills the biggest threat is not really inflation......probably just that this is a long recession that slowly falls more and turns into the "new normal"

[edit on 1-7-2009 by cpdaman]



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 08:54 PM
link   

Originally posted by cpdaman
oh btw how do they get new money into people's hands or banks to lend

or how long till there is a massive shortage of supply to drive up prices.....cause demand ain't risin.....

the only way i see a inflation is thru some new nationalized banking system because the gov't ISN"T in business to Make money like private banks....the gov't may actually lend to stave off riots lol......either that or some massive devaluation of currency's against gold or IMF SDR's currency is the only way i see....happening...

there will be no inflation just more constant threats and fits of "coming inflation" mostly to stimulate people to spend...(before prices rise too high).....does anyone understand that piece of the psychological pie



I never thought about it like that. but you are right about one thing. I am sick to death of people telling me to be a good consumer. Im saving and investing thats it.



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 09:00 PM
link   
reply to post by Spartak_FL
 


We have more variables involved than that, GDP, for one, China and bonds issue, things are different this time.

I'm not saying for certain we'll experience hyperinflation but we could easily see a 22% annual inflation rate. Figure that out in 3 years time.



posted on Jun, 30 2009 @ 09:03 PM
link   















posted on Jul, 1 2009 @ 12:30 AM
link   
reply to post by Spartak_FL
 



Fed outright coupon purchases are not neutral. The purchase of $300 billion in longer term treasuries announced for 2009 , represents raw , unsterilized $ creation.



POMO FAQ

Will these operations be reserve neutral?

No, these operations will be financed through the creation of additional bank reserves.

Full Text



See QE

See POMO


Also announced for 2009 , the purchase of $1.25 trillion agency MBS + 200 billion in direct agency debt.

That's a total QE program of 1.75 trillion scheduled for fiscal 09 (always subject to upgrade).

First it shows-up here (flirting with 1.80 trillion - 70% currently attributable to QE)....

eventually here , in multiples...courtesy of fractional reserve banking.

If there were sufficient buyers for the tremendous overhang of US debt , the Fed wouldn't be purchasing , $USD would be trading above .100 , oil stable below $40 , Gold $400 , food costs easing.......peace and tranquility in the idyllic village of Stepford.

Hopefully this explains why our creditors are a tad nervous.

GL



posted on Jul, 1 2009 @ 08:45 AM
link   
I don't think our creditors are shakey that we will pay our debts.......no country ever pays it's debts off....country's are always in debt

just that we can make our interest payments........and the fed or JP morgan (with intrest rate derivatives) will do what it takes to keep rates low (when 10 year rises above 5% i will start pissing myself).........

I think country's are talking tougher against Us and the dollar because they CAN now.......they have leverage to bargain with and say things they couldn't before.......but i don't think anyone dumps the dollar en masse....half would probably fear a Shock and Awe attack......and the other half would probably fear there own economy would collapse......just a slow diversifying out into possibly SDR's....

with retail demand low for GOLD Obe 1 .....i don't see gold going to the "moon" without some sort of offical one time devaluation against gold or even IMF SDR's......ya investment demand is there......but retail is not

and banks they aren't a lending in a economy like this (not the one's that care about profit)......should the banks become nationalized by gov't willing to stave off riots in order to lend....then i will think monetary inflation has a chance.....otherwise trillions in computer entry Debt IV's to keep credit markets on LIFE support is not inflationary just counter Collapse of credit markets world wide....


also should dollar ever fall really fast (dont think it will due to problems in Europe....japan.....middle east....south america (economy's).... i think the IMF or global central banks or who ever would detach the dollar from commodity's very fast....and likely tie them to a basket of SDR like currency.......that would counter any destabalizing rises in oil and food prices through most of the world

[edit on 1-7-2009 by cpdaman]



posted on Jul, 1 2009 @ 08:52 AM
link   

Originally posted by cpdaman
I don't think our creditors are shakey that we will pay our debts.......no country ever pays it's debts off....country's are always in debt


[edit on 1-7-2009 by cpdaman]



Thats not true. Germany, great britian, Japan and former Soviet union paid us back hundreds of billions for lend lease and reconstruction. United States of America Financed the reconstruction of Europe after world war 2

[edit on 1-7-2009 by Spartak_FL]



posted on Jul, 1 2009 @ 09:42 AM
link   
reply to post by Amaterasu
 


Yes and at times it's difficult to determine the truth at least on this one we do have a common explanation.

Smile back.



new topics

top topics



 
6
<< 1    3 >>

log in

join