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We are living in exponential times

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posted on Jun, 11 2009 @ 11:02 PM
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Originally posted by ahnggk
Manufacturers are actually forcing themselves to conform to Moore's law, thus we now have multi-core processors!! It's partly a prophecy but mostly a manufacturer's goal. I think it's no longer a prophetic vision but a manufacturing standard!

I have to disagree though that these are bright days for humanity. I know technology very intimately but high tech only serves to dumb people down unfortunately. Yes we have the internet but look at what most are using the internet for! It's nothing but mindless chatters
. We don't even try to ponder what goes under the hood.


IMO, Multiple processors were inevitable but it's important to remember what Moore's Law actually states. Computing power can always be multiplied by combining multiple processors together. But with regard to Moore's Law, it's a little more complicated than that.

Moore's Law


The observation made in 1965 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented. Moore predicted that this trend would continue for the foreseeable future. In subsequent years, the pace slowed down a bit, but data density has doubled approximately every 18 months, and this is the current definition of Moore's Law, which Moore himself has blessed. Most experts, including Moore himself, expect Moore's Law to hold for at least another two decades.


You can have any one processor, add more of the same and increase your overall computing power. But what wouldn't change whether you have 1, 2, 3, or 4 of the same processors is how many transistors they have per square inch. That is going to be the same whether you have 1 processor or 4 of those same processors.

But I do see your point with regards to manufacturing. Part of it has to do with customer demand and expectation.

If computing technology begins to slow down and computing power by integrated circuit doesn't grow that much over time.. The customers are still going to want more power. That seems to be the rule, at least. So it only seems feasible to combine multiple processors together when technological advancement slowly approches a brick wall as far as how many transistors per square inch can comprise an integrated circuit. And if one company is doing this, another company can't compete if they can't match that power with one processor. So then all of the computer manufacturers start putting multiple processors in their computers. It's kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy of the technology industry.

SO, alot of why computing power is progressing in the marketplace isn't so much because of the progression of Moore's Law. It's also because of the number of processors that can be combined to multiply the overall computing power of any one system. And the reason that is happening is because of demand and consumer expectation. People like me always want the most advanced computer possible when they go looking to buy. Combining multiple processors can cause people to bite on a sale since the computing power can be orders of magnitude over other computers with a single processor.

-ChriS

[edit on 11-6-2009 by BlasteR]




posted on Jun, 11 2009 @ 11:50 PM
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Awesome thread I need to do my research to see how true it is but very interesting none the less... S&f!



posted on Jun, 11 2009 @ 11:52 PM
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reply to post by BlasteR
 


I have a amd phenom processor which i overclocked so all four cores running together equals 10ghz... whats so bad about that?



posted on Jun, 12 2009 @ 12:05 AM
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Intro from "A Tale of Two Cities:"


It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way—in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.


That's as relevant now as the period about which it was written. If you view the '2 cities' as the Past and the Future coming together in the Singularity, it takes on a new and heavy meaning for us all as we accelerate down the path of change.

It will be the point where ALL is possible, and one of two very distinct paths must be chosen - extinction or transcendance, each being the very best, or the very worst we're capable of inflicting upon ourselves.

[edit on 12/6/09 by Evasius]



posted on Jun, 12 2009 @ 10:28 AM
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that's absolutely amazing to think about some of those figures.

more amazing is the $1000 computer in 2049! that's just plain scary as well.

Brilliant video though S+F!



posted on Jun, 12 2009 @ 01:40 PM
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Originally posted by miragezero

Originally posted by Leo Strauss
S&F Thanks for the post.

As with all science it is a dual edged sword. I see no great advantage nor disadvantage to "progress".





You don't see an advantage to genetics making aging obsolete?

Or that nanotechnology will be able to destroy disease and optimize your biology and/or replace it alltogether by building it molecule by molecule?

Or that increasing intelligence either using genetics or technology (or both) will allow for more progress faster to become smarter faster so on and so forth until the world completely changes and we solve our problems... :-)


Science has always been held up by some as the savior of mankind. It is a nice dream and I commend you for being on the right side of the sword, so to speak.

But to discount evil is very naive. Humankind has proven over and over again that some will succumb to their lower instincts and end your dream.

William Burroughs - Humans are a virus on the earth and will soon destroy themselves in an orgy of cannibalism. Not a quote but the gist! For every so called advance in science and technology there has been equal counterbalance of decline for our species. Call it Taoism or "Life Out of Balance"

I think the earth will shake us off just like the dinosaurs. Unless of course the aliens ride in on white horses and save our sorry species! Out with a whimper is my prediction.



posted on Jun, 13 2009 @ 10:43 AM
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Originally posted by Leo Strauss


Science has always been held up by some as the savior of mankind. It is a nice dream and I commend you for being on the right side of the sword, so to speak.

But to discount evil is very naive. Humankind has proven over and over again that some will succumb to their lower instincts and end your dream.

William Burroughs - Humans are a virus on the earth and will soon destroy themselves in an orgy of cannibalism. Not a quote but the gist! For every so called advance in science and technology there has been equal counterbalance of decline for our species. Call it Taoism or "Life Out of Balance"

I think the earth will shake us off just like the dinosaurs. Unless of course the aliens ride in on white horses and save our sorry species! Out with a whimper is my prediction.


Yes we will have to deal with this problem of instinct and our animalistic natures. We will have to leave them behind, those that want to at least. I do not think there has been any decline as a result of technology. A tool does not unbuild a machine unless a mechanic is involved. We are still here even with billions of us on the planet so that is a testament to the fact that we are in fact social creatures capable of operating in large organized societies. Score one for mother nature. We are doing nothing more than mother nature has done but since she cannot simulate then she must act slowly and with many safeguards so that life can continue. Through us she is not bound to this format any longer. We CAN simulate, and store information artificially that never need be lost (instead of just through DNA) and take an active part in increasing intelligence just as she has one. We can root out bad behaviors just as she has done and choose materials that work better in the body just as she has been doing for millions of years. There *is* danger of course, but it is likely that strong AI will not be unfriendly. At the time of strong AI we will be edging out of the era of scarcity economics through nanotech. There will be plenty of food (for those of us who continue to eat haha) shelter and energy to go around for everyone. This is not some crazy dream it is an attainable goal that can happen within our lifetimes and likely will. :-D It is a bright future not a dark one.



posted on Jun, 13 2009 @ 10:53 AM
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Originally posted by Evasius
Intro from "A Tale of Two Cities:"


That's as relevant now as the period about which it was written. If you view the '2 cities' as the Past and the Future coming together in the Singularity, it takes on a new and heavy meaning for us all as we accelerate down the path of change.

[edit on 12/6/09 by Evasius]


The word singularity was chosen not because of a merging but because of its likeness to the event horizon of a black hole which is also known as a singularity. You cannot see or probe beyond the event horizon of a black hole so it is an unknown; likewise it is almost impossible to envision our future when we have created a superintelligence either through AI or augmented humans via tech or biotech. The reason being is that smarter humans or computers or human/computer combinations will be better at *making* themselves smarter causing a cascade-like effect. Coupling intellects many many magnitudes higher than what we can do now with the techonolgy that may exist there is not telling what the future will look like or what human consciousness will become or "feel" like. It will likely not be bad as there is a strong correlation between lesser intelligence and criminal activity, and once we are free of biological restrictions or a great understanding of them then we can see psychopathic behavior for what it is- a fault of biology, not machine.. We can have cybernetic bodies... or biological bodies that never age... or be just consciousness in computers (mind you a computer will not be anything like what you are reading this on at that point) if we choose to be or drift between any of these things as we please.



posted on Jun, 13 2009 @ 07:04 PM
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Originally posted by whiteraven
Stupid question...lets say they came up with a very small device that a person could use via his "thoughts" to search for information...sort of like a "FUTURE google" but internal, and this device is powered in the same way as a pacemaker, so the device could be implanted at birth......would this system eventualy become a self enforcing system in the same way Moores Law is?


I think what you're asking is this..

If human implants are deveoped that eventually turn people into walking computers, would Moore's Law eventually apply to us as well as computers?

IMO, that isn't so easy to answer.

We have no idea whether or not Moore's Law will apply in the future or when it might become an obsolete way of looking at computers and the integrated circuit. Many people predict that Moore's law can never sustain this kind of exponential growth in computer technology because human beings will inevitably reach a point where it becomes impossible to fit more transistors on a square inch of an integrated circuit. Thus far, we've been pretty successful at miniaturizing transistors and making the overall circuits more powerful. But when you think about it, our exponential progress is inevitably going to slow down until it ceases altogether.

It would also be completely possible to put a computer chip in someone capable of doing what you're talking about without ever reaching that point where Moore's Law becomes obsolete, itself. And even if we did, we would have some pretty amazing computers and computer chips out there. We wouldn't ever have to reach the Moore's Law brick wall before turning people into cyborgs. We actually have some of the technology to do it right now.

It's completely possible that it might happen. It may have already taken place in a dark underground room somewhere with black budget funding. Who knows!

With relation to implants and how many transistors/integrating circuits can be inserted or implanted into the human body, that's entirely different. In this regard, it would be a different law altogether. But it's at least plausible that it could grow exponentially on a bell curve just like Moore's Law until humans reach a point where they're not even human anymore.

So it's competely possible that humans might one day be obsolete altogether.

Good song..

Fear Factory - Obsolete
(which basically talks about this very scenario)

-ChriS



posted on Jun, 14 2009 @ 01:00 AM
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Originally posted by audas

Originally posted by skeptic_al

Originally posted by rapinbatsisaltherage
reply to post by Karlhungis
 



"Predictions are that by 2049 a $1000 computer will exceed computational capabilities of the entire human species". Wow, there are so many pros and cons to this. I'm amazed, excited, and horrified.



Maybe so....but

Even today's computers with all their speed and power can not
think and therefore are no more Intelligent than a cockroach.
They can only do what the original programmers had anticipated,
so by 2049 they are still going to be just calculators, but very fast
calculators. Still a long long way from becoming skynet.




UNfortunately this is not the case - the recent work of Peter Singer in "Wired For War" - thebest work on robots and AI in military evolution ever written and the worlds leading thinker on this issue has been very definite in when AI will be fully introduced - total autonomy will be on the battle field by 2020 - at the VERY LATEST.
By 2013 there will be fully mechanised infantrymen on the field. By 2030 according to Moores Law the average computer will be 100,000,000,000 more powerful than today.

AI equivalent to our own is expected to be delivered by industry by 2013 -

so what would a fully mechanised robot soldier look like ? here you go.....



And I'm still waiting for my Hover Car that was promised back in
sixties.

How about that Anti-Missile Missile defense shield that was
promised in the 80's

And I still don't even have a Talking Toaster !

There's a whole swag of things that were promised we should have
right now but don't and probably never will in my lifetime.



posted on Jun, 15 2009 @ 09:02 PM
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Hey guys

Sorry. but since I am a Noob I cant start a thread.

I thought this was a very interesting story I did a search on forum but came up with nothing on this. I think this would fit in this thread.

Microbe Wakes Up After 120,000 Years


news.yahoo.com...

Peace Guns



Damn sorry I found it. Sorry mod you can delete this

[edit on 15-6-2009 by IIGuns]



posted on Jun, 16 2009 @ 12:27 AM
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reply to post by BlasteR
 


I actually work with Moore's Law on a daily basis. It is pretty amazing to think every two years we are tasked with something that is physically impossible. Yet, like clockwork...we manage to keep the law going. There have been recent breakthroughs that have our engineers fairly confident that we should easily be able to extend Moore's Law for another 10 years. It's anybody's guess what will happen between now and then that will allow us to extend it even further.

Also, FWIW... Intel engineers are predicting the singularity to happen in the year 2050.

news.cnet.com...


If Intel's CTO is correct, then man and machine could merge by the year 2050. Justin Rattner said that Intel's research labs are looking at human-machine interfaces and predicts that promising changes could come sooner than expected. For example, did you know that Intel is working on small, shape-shifting robots called "catoms" -- tiny inside the pocket, a million-strong team of micro-robots could one day reassemble into an earpiece, keyboard



[edit on 16-6-2009 by Karlhungis]



posted on Jul, 3 2009 @ 02:29 PM
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I would also like to know what the top 10 jobs for 2010 are that didn't exist 6 years ago
Something just doesn't sound right about that



posted on Jul, 4 2009 @ 12:07 AM
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reply to post by Karlhungis
 


It's looking more and more like AI is the way of the future. Or at least an AI that can function independently within specific boundaries of capability (just to make sure it doesn't try to do something we don't want). Me and my old college roommate used to talk all the time about AI. He was a computer science major.

I'm wondering about the singularity in terms of furthering the miniaturization of the transistor. If a group of super-smart computers (smarter than human beings) can put their "brains" together, they might be able to solve the problems of miniaturization without us even needing to do anything. Computers designing computers. It makes sense!

-ChriS



posted on Jul, 4 2009 @ 09:19 AM
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reply to post by BlasteR
 





I'm wondering about the singularity in terms of furthering the miniaturization of the transistor. If a group of super-smart computers (smarter than human beings) can put their "brains" together, they might be able to solve the problems of miniaturization without us even needing to do anything. Computers designing computers. It makes sense!


The idea of computers designing themselves sends chills down my spine. If that isn't skynet waiting to happen, I don't know what is. Part of me is excited to see what this exponential growth will bring, part of me is convinced that we will destroy ourselves before we get a chance.



posted on Jul, 13 2009 @ 03:35 AM
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[edit on 13 Jul 2009 by schrodingers dog]



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