10 Things You MUST Do, by Karl Denninger

Im a huge fan of The Market Ticker as most of my buddies here on ATS know. I have even been honored with a phone interview from Karl Denninger, the guy who writes the blog (You'll hear about that pretty soon I think).

Today he put up an extremely long blog, that is a must read. In the blog he gives advice for the recession. Here is that advice. Ten Things You Must Do

Stop listening to those who claim that "The Market is telling you the recession is ending/over." Baloney. What was the market telling you in October of 2007 when the SPX hit 1576? That everything was great and "subprime was contained", right? Any more questions on that piece of nonsense?

Get out of debt - NOW. Revolving debt in particular is murderous. If your credit line hasn't been cut back or your interest rate jacked, you're one of the few. It will happen. Going bankrupt due to increasing debt service requirements (with or without job loss) sucks.

Stop spending more than you make - in fact, do the opposite - start saving. NOW. You need to be saving 10% of your gross income. Not net or "excess" - gross. These funds serve two purposes: an emergency fund (which you're likely to need) and if you have one already it will also serve as a fund to buy up assets that will be puked up when things get really bad. You don't get wealthy by selling to some other sucker - you get wealthy by buying when nobody has any money to buy - that is, by driving the hardest bargain you can imagine!

I've said it before but it bears repeating: have the ability to make it even if you lose your job. Most people say three months of reserves are necessary. I've said six months to two years, and I'll reiterate it. And reserves means cash, not credit. Parked in a credit union is ok - but be prepared to make that actual cash in a big honking hurry if you need to. How do you know if you need to? If and when the first Treasury auction fails, the market crashes below the 666 March low and/or a big bank fails, you need to.

Pull ALL of your business from ANY bank that has received federal assistance. The community banks and credit unions have been screwed by the crony government interests in two ways - first, by regulators allowing bankrupt banks to pay overly-large CD rates when they're insolvent (that's fraud on its face) and second by proposing to tax them through FDIC assessments to pay for the sins of the imprudent. Withdraw your consent and assistance - move your funds to a credit union or local community bank, but before doing so ask to see their financials and look specifically for over-leverage in commercial real estate and other development "assets". HIT THE BAD GUYS IN THE WALLET - THE ONLY PLACE THEY UNDERSTAND!

If you have assets in the stock market, and have thus enjoyed the rally off SPX 666, either sell or hedge that exposure RIGHT NOW. The upside risk is what - 10%? What's the downside risk? 50% or more. You can hedge effectively with PUTs which have gotten much cheaper as the VIX has fallen, or simply sell out and go to cash. In my opinion you're insane to play for another 10% gain when you may suffer a 50% loss, but that's my view. Just don't say you weren't warned if you do nothing and the collapse occurs!

Figure out what you're going to do if we suffer a "sudden stop" and be prepared to execute that plan. Consider what a collapse in trucking, for example, does to the food supply into major cities. This is a low-probability risk right now (perhaps 10-20%) but if it happens major cities will become free-fire zones within hours. A gun won't do you a damn bit of good when there's a potential rifle barrel sticking out of every window and the person behind it is interested in the bag of groceries you're carrying. You are not Rambo (and by the way, have you noticed that Rambo always goes after bad guys in some small, flat hellhole? Ever wonder why? With a sniper rifle poking out of every second window even John Rambo doesn't stand a chance.) Those who live on the coasts have hurricane plans. Everyone needs a "sudden stop" plan, and it must not rely on access to credit of any sort, because if "it" happens that access will disappear instantly. For people in rural America, this might not be that big of a deal. For those who live in big cities it is - and its something you probably haven't thought through to the degree you need to.

Don't count on metals. I know, I know, we're going to hyperinflate and gold is going to the moon. I have one question: Can you eat it, drink it, run your car on it, sleep under it, or screw it? No? That's a problem. A "sudden stop" is not a hyperinflationary event - it has good odds of being quite the opposite. God help you if you put your eggs in that basket and are wrong.

Acquire lawful means of self-defense. Your odds of being victimized are roughly 1 in 100 annually under normal conditions. What happens when its 1 in 5? Think it won't be? Ok, if doesn't really get bad then you spent money on something you don't need, but you still have it and can sell it (even if you take somewhat of a loss.) If you wait, and then decide you need it, what are the odds of being able to find a firearm? And by the way, weapons you don't know how to use in a competent and cool fashion if you need to are worthless or worse. This means range time and/or professional instruction, and both take time, effort and money. Again, this is called "hedging" - your life and property, this time (instead of your investment portfolio)

Figure out who your friends are - and aren't. This isn't about who you like. Its about who you can trust with your back - no questions asked. If things get bad the second-to-the-last thing you want to be is alone - right before being around anyone who is less than 100% trustworthy. Think about this point long and hard - this doesn't mean dumping acquaintances now, but it does mean knowing who you group with if you need to - and who you avoid.

Isnt it interesting that he states some obvious Survivalist ideas here? Survivalist believe that being prepared for everything is the best option in life. I am a Survivalist of course. Even have it above my Avatar over there to the left.

Basic Survivalist rules:
Be prepared in everything for everything - This means preparedness, alertness, readiness. Be it for a natural disaster or, as times have shown us, economic collapse.
Have money - Cash, gold, metals, bartering supplies.
Know your friends/enemies
Self Defense - When things get tough the tough get going. That cant be said for the untough though. Those you rely on others. Minus children who need protection, those whom have no idea how to protect and provide for themselves will snap, most likely becoming violent and returning to the instincts of "Myself before anyone else."
Avoid danger and unnecessary risk


Deny Ignorance



[edit on 6/9/2009 by Tentickles]

While you are looking for weapons to defend yourself, willing to kill to survive, i need like 2 hours to get my closest neighbours to colaborate and UNITE to face any monetary collapse. I feel no threat from anyone, i (and all around me) would survive quite easelly. Weapons to hunt for eating, earth to grow food..it is all there for free. I welcome the collapse so this "western" civilisation ends one for all. lets start from scratch.
All are not cowboys you know!

So, if you want to survive..get the hell oput of al major american cities were your closest friends are your enemy, were you are expected to kill him before he kills you.

Great thread! I read Karl every day as I'm "educating myself", but this to me comes across as his final, last call, sound the alarm, "Battle Cry".

Thank you for putting this out there. Time to shift into 4th gear everyone!

reply to post by fullmoonfairy


He does seem to be getting slightly more agitated with how things are going with the world.

I for one cant help but join him there.

I agree with most of the tips. The one that I dissagree most with is "Start saving money". Save it where? In a bank, under the matress? In dollars, in euros, silver or gold?

I think it's pointless to save something that will have no value.

And don't forget, you cannot eat gold or silver.

If I was starving and had 1 can of chili left and someone offered a gold brick for it. I'd say hell no. I'd rather eat than carry around a useless brick.

It's only worth something if someone wants it. And when people are surviving, the last thing they want is to be stuck carrying stuff they can't eat.

You think "Oh but I can use it to trade for stuff". Really?
If you came to me with a wheelbarrow of gold and wanted food, I would laugh you out of town. Manure would be worth more because at least you can use it to fertilize crops to grow food.

reply to post by Tentickles


Tentickles, thank you yet again for another great post. I read Denninger every day but somehow missed this one.

Reading from the full article, I think he is right on the money with regard to the "sudden stop" as a result of the collapse of the bond market. I think this is right around the corner...days away. God help us all.