Swine Flu is waning states county offical yet more cases and deaths being reported.

I spoke with an public health offical 2 days a go. I also spoke with the CDC again. They both stated this flu was waning? How is it waning if there are 1,000-2000 new cases per day? Once again they are denying that the 1918 flu is related at all. This is spreading more rapidly then the 1918 flu actually. The death rate is lower. If my projections are right in 100 days from now there will be 100,000 - 200,000 reported cases with about 200 deaths. It is about a 2% mortality rate at this time. It started lower in the USA. That is if the numbers stay the same. In 100 more days 200,000-400,000 and 600-800 deaths. The scary thing is if the morality rate doubles to 4% like it did because the death rate in the USA used to be at 1% we would have almost 1,000 dead. The thing is if there is an exhilration we are talking something beyond the normal flu. What if this trend continues where will we be in a year from now? A year from now it will be about 720000 with at 2% mortality rate about 1,000 + deaths. When this is all over in 2 years over 1,440,000 people will have gotten sick from this illness and thousands of deaths. That is only if it stays steady. I need to do some more research but this looks like it could be worse than 1918. Can someone convince I am wrong? Please? I am really scared.

Don't be scared yet.
Be scared for the winter, if this thing acts like any normal pandemic, the summer will kill off all the weak strains and leave all the hardcore virulent strains for the winter, where it spreads 10x easier and kills 10X faster.

I actually found a way to contract it for me and my family (we were all sick about 2 weeks total as the flu moved from person to person), so we have better hopes of surviving a winter attack. I just had our daughter go to school even after they sent 200 home one day and informed parents they had a confirmed case with one of the students. She got sick first, we all followed. It was very mild.

No worse then a normal flu right now in my opinion.

My husband and I each had a bad flu- unlike any other- in Feb/March. Certain it was H1N1. So- when the virus returns in the autumn, those of us who have had it will be fine- we will have antibody to it. If, however, it mutates in the S. Hemishpere, even though we've had it this year, we will have no native immunity to it, and we will be just as vulnerable as the next person.

If the actual strain stays the same, we might have a milder infection, despite mutation. We have to take into account, however, the addition of viulence factors to the RNA of the virus. If they are changing (as they appear to be- people have been ill for weeks before dying- now they are dying in 1-3 days), even that mild antibody response to the surface proteins of the viral capsid won't protect us from the virulence genes released when the cell is invaded. IgG/M, etc., can't be everywhere at once- so evenif ONE virion gains entrance into a cell, with a mutated virulence gene- we all got the flu "for nothing" this year.


EDIT to add: Better to BOOST yours and your childrens' immune systems with diet, excercise, sunshine (vit D), slippery elm, CoQ10, orgo food, etc., than lower it by exposure to flu now. Pople who died in the largest numbers in the Black deathand in 1918- from two radically different diseases- were those who were weakened by a prior infection: measles, influenza, smallpox, TB, malnutrition (taco bell, anyone? diet soda?). Those who lived were lucky enough to self-quaratine, or had NOT had an illness that had previously attacked their immune systems.

[edit on 7-6-2009 by CultureD]

Brief post-

Has anyone else heard that IOWA is no longer testing for H1N1 at all?

Read it on CNN and rubbed my eyes. The article is gone now. Would love input if anyone has it. can't believe denial could be state-wide (although it's country-wide, so...)

Thanks

---C