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What Was THAT? (Friday Market Close)

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posted on May, 31 2009 @ 07:44 AM
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Originally posted by wonderworld
Naked short sellers can bring down a company fairly fast but we seen that even though short selling was banned in 2008 the market continued to fall.


You can still contrive a synthetic short by using puts.

Synthetic shorting

Stocks are also reacting to the "sell the news" mentality.

Edit to add that noone is willing to hold anything anymore so we're all on the trigger.

If you want to make money in this market, look at where the volume is. That's where the DTs are. When they leave, the stock sucks once more. Check out a chart of C as an example.

[edit on 5/31/2009 by titian]




posted on May, 31 2009 @ 08:23 AM
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Originally posted by eldard

Originally posted by Stormdancer777
Yes, I don't understand people in high places, they are a different breed.


Maybe different species, even?


P.S. They like pyramids and sunshine.


YEA. that's what I was thinking, and good morning.



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 08:41 AM
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Stormdancer, we're getting some education here. Good thread and you "in the know" guys keep it coming. Thanks.



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 08:47 AM
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Originally posted by Hemisphere
Stormdancer, we're getting some education here. Good thread and you "in the know" guys keep it coming. Thanks.


TY, I am getting an education as well, hemi.

It will be interesting to see what Monday brings, and next week.



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 09:46 AM
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reply to post by titian
 


Yes, this is correct

This is was the risk arbitragers were doing to citibank when shares for shorting (margin) was not readily available at the time, they were heavy into options

You can also use this method to disguise your tactics or many other things.

Options are very complicated IMO, and they should only be used by people that know exactly what they are doing regarding time value, intrinsic value etc..



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 10:29 AM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by Adrifter
 


Dont worry

Things are turning around

People are always the most negative at the bottom, and thats when its time to go up again..

March was the worst ever for confidence in the market, but in the USA as well

That should tell you something

[edit on 30-5-2009 by GreenBicMan]


WTF are you talking about Willis?

This is just feel good garbage IMO, lol



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 10:33 AM
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reply to post by FrankWhite222
 


Really?

Ok, markets up more than 30% since then, yes that makes me feel good.

But what are your feelings? Obviously you are negative, but how do you see this playing out?



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 03:34 PM
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Yes the markets are up 30% YTD, so if you only began investing in stock in January 2009 you are sitting flush, but if you started investing in January 2008 your about 15% down, so I guess any analysis is measured by the spread of its time frame

So, if you can base the success of your investments based upon price performance in a given time frame, then technically single day trades can be valued from hour to hour.

Consequently if you started investing in 1980 you are just as flush as the 2009 YTD guys

"...ya gotta know when to hold no when to walk away know when to run, ya never count your money when your sitting at the table"

The last part of the song verse is how the game is manipulated.

Analysis is limited to time frames and earning reports are openly fabricated since the days of Enron and Arthur Anderson(remember them?)

When Goldman Sachs does not count December 2008 in their accounting report($12billion loss) to show a 4th Qrt profit of $2 billion and nobody blinks an eye(well maybe some winking but definitely no blinking) the game is rigged

Of course the game has always been rigged by the designers of the game(duh) Why invent a game and not build a win mode for yourself

Synthetic Shorting ? lets take it a step further...

The market makers(those that hold large positions of institutional paper) will often sit on a trade like a bookie sits on a bet,...its a good strategy because a loser is a loser and the game is designed to take the losers money, but occasionally the underdog wins and the bookie(market maker) is on the wrong side of the bets

but don't worry about the bookie because he will make his money back on all the naked shorts !...

What is a Naked Short ?

from Wikipedia:

Naked short selling, or naked shorting, is the practice of selling a financial instrument short without first borrowing the security or ensuring that the security can be borrowed as is done in a conventional short sale. When the seller does not obtain the shares within the required time frame, the result is known as a "fail to deliver". The transaction generally remains open until the shares are acquired by the seller or the seller's broker, allowing the trade to be settled. Naked short selling can be used to manipulate the price of securities by driving their price down, and its use in this way is illegal.

Basically it means that the market maker pretends they owned the opposite end of the losing bet AKA they had a short position on the losers

So, Friday's trades were a shake out of hedge positions held on "undelivered" shorts.

They had to buy their positions back so the could short them again

The key is when will they take their profits again?

A guess is between August & October , ok so that's not such a stretch since
the 4th qrtr of a new president is always volatile, but this stuff is all made up anyway



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 03:37 PM
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reply to post by FrankWhite222
 



It's just non existing paper.

The market only reflects the economy because the emotions of the people buying the paper.

When the market goes down, when it crashes even, that money is still going into the pockets of other people.

The stock market is looked at as an investment opportunity based on the expectations of a company doing well, but even if a company is doing great the "investors" can still drive that puppy into the ground just on a word.

The same goes for the economy, all you need to make the market go up during bad times is to spread the word that now is the time to buy.

The idea of propping up the market is foolish because the market it self is at it's core based on a prop up.

I mean you have to sign a paper saying "hey dude if you loose your money it's on you!" for crying out loud.

In reality all the stock market does is turn companies into banks. In a bank some people but money in and a whole lot of others get credit off a leveraged fraction of the money that was put into the bank. But if everyone tries to take their money out of the bank the leveraged balance sheet the bank has has nothing to do with the actual money the people put into the bank so not every one can get their money.

The same thing is happening when a stock falls in price.

It's all a fool's game but it works for a time. But to call a fools game a propped up fools game is just silly. It's just legal gambling, all of it is.

TA!! Izzy



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 03:39 PM
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reply to post by NWRHINO
 


Well actually we are up slightly on the NASDAQ YTD, and dow and SP500 are both about flatlined

We are up 30% though from the bottom, that is correct



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 03:45 PM
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reply to post by NWRHINO
 


Grrrrrrrr!!


I hate it when smart people post a second before me.

But hey if you look at a documentary you'll find that they explain the same thing three times.

once in a scientific fashion then in an intellectual fashion then they throw in the "for dummies" explanation.


Too bad we can't stuff a post in between yours and mine.


TA!! Izzy



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 03:55 PM
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reply to post by NWRHINO
 


hmmm

I dont agree with too much of that

Especially when you talk about the specialists (MM)

All these people do is add liquidity into the market, or make the bid/ask tight

Remember, these people TOOK MAJOR HITS when the market was crashing and they had to be there to buy the shorts positions...



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 05:35 PM
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reply to post by wonderworld
 


I have noticed the oil market being enhanced. Oil atm is being traded at 66 dollars a barrel up from the low 50s. Given this is summer and demand is lower in summer. Couple this with the recession and i think the market price is very opportunistic, to say the least.



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 06:05 PM
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Originally posted by NWRHINO
but don't worry about the bookie because he will make his money back on all the naked shorts !...


Reg SHO

Market makers are amongst the biggest naked shorts there are. They are allowed to go naked short in order to keep a market liquid. So, whenever you have a low-volume stock that suddenly runs on 10x volume, guess where the shares come from? Ever wonder why those runners always come back down to where they started from within a week's time?

The MM never loses... Play along with them and you'll never lose either.



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 06:08 PM
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reply to post by titian
 


Specialists lost their collective asses this past year..

Please think about it

Who else would provide liquidity when everyone else was shorting?

Not retail, thats for sure...

Please, think about that.



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 08:53 PM
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Originally posted by NWRHINO
Yes the markets are up 30% YTD, so if you only began investing in stock in January 2009 you are sitting flush....


Up 30% from the March lows....but the majors are still negative YTD. If you came in long Jan 2009 , you're upside-down.

S&P

DJ



...but if you started investing in January 2008 your about 15% down...


If you bought either index in January 2008...your portfolio is currently reflecting an "unrealized loss" of over 30%.



so I guess any analysis is measured by the spread of its time frame


Well said NWR.

Aboard the Time Machine , we discover it's actually 1998..or..if you consume food & energy...1986


GL



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 08:55 PM
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Jupiter conjunct Neptune on Wednesday, then Neptune turns retrograde Thursday. The Big Lie to Make You Feel Good.

Curtis



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 08:57 PM
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Originally posted by GreenBicMan
reply to post by NWRHINO
 


Well actually we are up slightly on the NASDAQ YTD, and dow and SP500 are both about flatlined

We are up 30% though from the bottom, that is correct




Ok well if your gonna check the numbers then I guess I have to fess up


The 30% number is from the early March(9th?) low

The reality is the DOW component includes non durable speculative investors like Citigroup and American Express.

not to mention AIG - the super hedge fund underwriting champion of all time, up until October 2008- thanks Moodys !

Using the DOW to predict market strength is speculative at best, the financials all fluctuate on currency and oil futures

It is best to treat the market as your own reality tunnel oblivious of what indicators are being lauded by main stream reporting agencies



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 09:19 PM
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reply to post by GreenBicMan
 


Agreed the 4th quarter of 2008 was not a boom for the"specialist"

The specialist make most of their money outside the naked shorts which are just hedge bets to keep themselves specialists and the market flowing

The majority of specialist money is made from the creamy middles. They sell blocks of stock a point or two over the hold price on stocks they are shorting to goose the price, then they undersell a block to knock the price down before they re enter on the bargin

Its good to be a market maker !



posted on May, 31 2009 @ 09:32 PM
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reply to post by NWRHINO
 


well they will put in an ask or bid

1 tick below the ask

or

1 tick above the bid

and yes, they usually win.. lol...

but in reality, they are just there to provide for an even marketplace (theoretically)



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