Analysis: Where are the 3 million jobs Obama promised?

Everyone remember the The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan document that was prepared to sell Obama’s Stimulus Plan to the American Public?

A key goal enunciated by the President-Elect concerning the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan is that it should save or create at least 3 million jobs by the end of 2010.

First, the likely scale of employment loss is extremely large. The U.S. economy has already lost nearly 2.6 million jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007. In the absence of stimulus, the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are working to counter a potential total job loss of at least 5 million. As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan.

Second, as emphasized above, there is considerable uncertainty in our estimates: both the impact of the package on GDP and the relationship between higher GDP and job creation are hard to estimate precisely. In light of the substantial quarter-to-quarter variation in the estimates of job creation, we believe a reasonable range for 2010Q4 is 3.3 to 4.1 million jobs created.

I have taken their data on page 4 (Figure 1) and updated it with actual unemployment figures taken from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The only thing added was the “Actual” data.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/a997a15180df.jpg[/atsimg]

Based on their part of the graph (the “With” and “Without Recovery Plan” portions), they reach several conclusions:

We reach several key preliminary findings:

1.) A package in the range that the President-Elect has discussed is expected to create between three and four million jobs by the end of 2010.

2.) Tax cuts, especially temporary ones, and fiscal relief to the states are likely to create fewer jobs than direct increases in government purchases.

3.) Certain industries, such as construction and manufacturing, are likely to experience particularly strong job growth under a recovery package that includes an emphasis on infrastructure, energy, and school repair. But, the more general stimulative measures, such as a middle class tax cut and fiscal relief to the states, as well as the feedback effects of greater employment in key industries, mean that jobs are likely to be created in all sectors of the economy.

4.) More than 90 percent of the jobs created are likely to be in the private sector. Many of the government jobs are likely to be professionals whose jobs are saved from state and local budget cuts by state fiscal relief.

5.) A package is likely to create jobs paying a range of wages. It is also likely to move many workers from part-time to full-time work.

Based on MY analysis, Mr. Obama, I have reached several conclusions:

1.) A package in the range that Mr. Obama forced down our throats is expected to create MORE unemployment by the end of 2010 than if YOU had done NOTHING at all.

2.) Tax cuts and fiscal relief to the states (and being able to spend it on state DEBT) WERE LIKELY to create MORE jobs than direct increases in government purchases. But that’s too late now that you’ve spent all of our, our children’s and our grandchildren’s money.

3.) Certain industries, such as construction and manufacturing, are likely to experience particularly strong UNemployment under the recovery package.

4.) More than 90 percent of the jobs LOST are likely to be in the private sector. Many of the government jobs LOST are likely to be professionals whose jobs are LOST from state and local budget cuts.

5.) This package is confirmed to DESTROY jobs paying a range of wages. It is also lkely to move many workers from Full-Time TO Part-Time work.

6.) I have no idea what a “reasonable range for 2010Q4” jobs created, or more appropriately, DESTROYED is because you have screwed everything and everybody up so bad it is impossible to forecast the effects.

The only question left to ask is how much did we pay these “economists” to write this junk. I want my money back. You want ME to come to Washington and revise your impact plan for you? I’d be glad to do it – I’d even do it for free.

[edit on 29/5/2009 by Iamonlyhuman]

Mod Edit: All Caps – Please Review This Link.

[edit on 29 May 09 by Gools]

I can't speak to the validity of your projections, but I will say this:

Since this nonsense began, I've begun to see more and more road signs - something to the effect of "This construction courtesy of the american recovery and reinvestment act"

I see these signs everywhere now. How many signs did the government purchase to toot its own horn?

Only problem is, I see no work being done.

Oh, and how much did those signs cost? Aren't most of them manufactured in Italy?

What the Hell?

Obama jobs will be created within the government, mostly temporary ones, but that has been halted because the government has learned that they have to invest in the Market first and private interest "banks and companies" before they can invest in America.

In other words is other priorities before the American hard working tax payer. So while unemployment keeps rising and people are losing their American dreams, Big corporate America you know the banks and certain corporations and other financial institutions still have their American dream intact.

Redistribution of wealth my friend, Regan used to call it Trickle down economy, it seems Obama loves the concept or else.

[edit on 29-5-2009 by marg6043]

Yep, those jobs are temporary CENSOR jobs. To count people, ask them questions on what firearms they have and place GPS on their doorsteps. It's basically police state jobs.

Ummmm

It's not 2010 yet.

A key goal enunciated by the President-Elect concerning the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan is that it should save or create at least 3 million jobs by the end of 2010.

So at the rate of job loses the wording of the meaning of "Creation of jobs" is now relegated to "saving jobs", so by 2010 we may be saving the last 3 million jobs that the nation will only have left.

The way this is going the the job creation term has actually metamorphosed into a mysterious term :

Yea because seriously their would be 3 million jobs created in 102 days.

reply to post by elevatedone


Elevated... It doesn't matter. Take a look at the unemployment chart posted above; the "With" and the "Without" and then compare them to the "Actual". The trend is clearly showing that unemployment is increasing beyond that which the government claimed it would WITHOUT the alleged stimulus funds. In other words - the alleged stimuls funds did nothing to halt the rapid increase in unemployment.

Also, of equal importance, is that the unemployment number that we are hearing about in the MSM is NOT the actual unemployment number. Nope, it is a rigged number. As defined by the International Labour Organization, "unemployed workers" are those who are currently not working but are willing and able to work for pay, currently available to work, and have actively searched for work. Read that last part again... "actively searched for work."

The following chart indicates how the US catagorizes the unemployed...

U1: Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
U3: Official unemployment rate per ILO definition.
U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
U6: U5 + Part time workers who want to work full time, but can not due to economic reasons.

As you can see, the U6 number most accurately represent those who are unable to obtain full-time employment - period. That number, friends, was 15.8% in April 2009. Early estimates have it over 19% for May 2009.

The semantics over the word "jobs" is the core of the political game being played here by Obama. The reality is that a "Job" is what we do to make a living. If our "Job" is not in our field of training or expertise, does not provide steady income consistent with what we have earned in the past, then said "Job" is virtually meaningless. Even if 3 million "Jobs" are/were created, they will not likely be the kind of "Jobs" that have been lost.

Keep an eye on the U6 number folks, that tells the REAL tale of the economic recovery. My prediction... U6 is over 20% by the year end and over 25% by mid 2010! This will make the Great Depression look like a mere recession.

Originally posted by kozmo
In other words - the alleged stimuls funds did nothing to halt the rapid increase in unemployment.

In fact, not only is it not halting the increase in unemployment, it is compounding the problem. Massive government debt is increases interest rates (as we've seen lately) which causes an increase in business defaults which causes more unemployment. April, 2009 change in unemployment is 563,000 vs. April, 2009 change in employment of 120,000. Way more losses than gains no matter which numbers you use.

As defined by the International Labour Organization, "unemployed workers" are those who are currently not working but are willing and able to work for pay, currently available to work, and have actively searched for work. Read that last part again... "actively searched for work."

Yep... those are only the people who are CURRENTLY getting unemployment benefits. It doesn't count the people who have run out of benefits, those that have given up searching, those that quit their jobs, those that are fired for cause, some of those laid off (if they don't meet the critieria), or those that just simply don't want to collect unemployment. It also doesn't count part time workers.

That number, friends, was 15.8% in April 2009. Early estimates have it over 19% for May 2009.

I really wish I could have compared their estimates of the U6 to the actuals but we know why the report didn't have those numbers in it, now don't we?

Originally posted by AllexxisF1
Yea because seriously their would be 3 million jobs created in 102 days.

Did you even look at my graph? Awww.... I spent al ot of time on it. Please look at it and then come back to leave an educated comment.

So far, most of the jobs are only temporary Summer jobs for teens. Way to go Barry. I think he is holding out until just before the 2010 election. By then people will vote for anyone just to get a job.

At least 12,000 jobs “created” by President Obama's stimulus package are summer jobs for young people, according to a White House report issued on May 27, 100 days after passage of the $787-billion American Reinvestment and Recovery Act.

The White House report, “100 Days, 100 Projects,” summarizes various projects on infrastructure, renewable energy and “jobs and job training.”

“In that time, we’ve obligated over $100 billion dollars, created more than 150,000 jobs and started important projects in every state and territory of America,” reads the report, written by Ed DeSeve, coordinator of recovery implementation at the White House.

Much of the information in the report's “jobs and job training” category concerns summer youth programs.

Meanwhile, Republicans critics have cited Department of Labor statistics showing that unemployment claims increased by 1.6 million in the first 100 days of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. That’s about 16,000 jobs lost per day.

Where is the MONEY?? Perhaps the Check from China hasn't cleared yet??

It has been reported, even though we’re 100 days into it, 6 percent [of the money] is out the door,” said LaTourette. “Now that I’m back in the state of Ohio, I can tell you, I meet with the contractors and the people who have the ability to put people to work and a lot of the contracts aren’t even out.”

Spending the most money where it is needed the least.

Earlier this month, an Associated Press analysis of 5,500 transportation projects found that states are planning to spend 50 percent or more per person in areas with the lowest unemployment rather than in cities and towns with the highest unemployment.

www.cnsnews.com...

The thing that I find most unbelievable about the current crisis is that no one in the MSM is expressing outrage - ok, aside from Rush, Hannity and Glenn Beck. Where is the in-depth analysis that was so typical during the Bush years? Where are the public demands for accountability that the media presented via their talking heads for the better part of 8 years?

Folks, this is only the beginning... we are being fleeced. Just wait until the full economic impact of the Chrysler and the GM bankrupcies begin rippling through the economy - the dealers, the suppliers, the after-market manufacturers. I think I might like to revise my U6 unemployment predictions... upward!!!

Also, where is the public outrage and scrutiny on the statements made about saving Chrysler and GM with tens of Billions of tax dollars to avoid this current fiasco??? Here we have given tens of billions, enough to provide a substantial stimulus to Americans, to prop up failing companies only to have them fall to bankruptcy. It is ludicrous!

Sadly, many of the new "Jobs" will be temporary census jobs, NGO non-profit low-wage jobs, seasonal infrastructure construction jobs or government jobs from the already over-bloated beauracracy that we tax-payers fund. None of those are long-term, livable wage positions. Yet, we will watch this administration tote the [fraudulent] numbers out for public consumption and the vast majority of mind-numbed Americans will take the bait - hook, line and sinker.

Folks, things are NOT getting better. We are nowhere near the bottom. We are not even half way through this. Get ready for hyper-inflation; it is next. If you are lucky enough to still have a job and it affords at least a little disposable income, I recommend that you dispose of it on a stockpile of food, medicine and self-defense items. Trust me when I tell you that you ain't seen nothing yet and that the Great Depression is going to look like a little blip!

I think you're really over reacting to be perfectly honest. The administration promised those jobs by 2010 and last I checked, it's still 2009. How can you expect to be taken seriously if you can't even wait for a few more months to pass?

I think you're an alarmist. The mainstream media will freak out on Obama if those jobs aren't created by the time frame that was drawn out, by 2010. You talk about Hannity, Beck and Rush, but i'm certain you don't watch "the liberal media" because if you had, you'd see a great deal of questions. You're wondering where the outrage is? Obama isn't torturing anyone, he isn't misleading the American people into wars. At least not yet. If and when he does, I can assure you the outrage will be just as bad.

You neutralize your own arguments by jumping the gun. Wait until 2010.

Originally posted by The Cyfre
I think you're really over reacting to be perfectly honest. The administration promised those jobs by 2010 and last I checked, it's still 2009. How can you expect to be taken seriously if you can't even wait for a few more months to pass?

I think you're an alarmist. The mainstream media will freak out on Obama if those jobs aren't created by the time frame that was drawn out, by 2010. You talk about Hannity, Beck and Rush, but i'm certain you don't watch "the liberal media" because if you had, you'd see a great deal of questions. You're wondering where the outrage is? Obama isn't torturing anyone, he isn't misleading the American people into wars. At least not yet. If and when he does, I can assure you the outrage will be just as bad.

You neutralize your own arguments by jumping the gun. Wait until 2010.

I'm not an alarmist ... I'm a manager.

Do you think that the red line in the graph represents a blip that will self-correct? If yes, then ok... that is your opinion. If no, then I ask what is it that we need to do to bring it back in line? We are already off-plan. What ADDITIONAL things are being done to bring unemployment back at least to the plan?

Lol... being a professional project manager, if this were a project of mine, I'd be doing something NOW... not waiting for the end of the project. But, I have a feeling that, in this case, the plan will just be changed to match the results. That's not management... that's just hoping.

[edit on 30/5/2009 by Iamonlyhuman]