Originally posted by bpg131313
It’s good to hear from you. Let’s dive into what was said.
Hi bpg, lets!
You made good observations regarding Japan. Having several Japanese friends myself, I often times get emails from them telling me what they
are hearing around Japan. When it comes to the affairs of Japan, we have been involved ever since General Douglas MacArthur had his hands in the
Occupation of Japan. You may remember from history class that he also led the UN forces against North Korea in 1950-1951. Japan has had us
protecting them since then.
Yup, i think they were observations that most Japanese would share in terms of just how able ( second largest economy on Earth and without all the
accounting fraud probably not as far behind the US as looks) they would be to defend themselves or massively expand their armed forces and strategic
capabilities. That is not something China or Russia would like to see but frankly i am not overly concerned with their concerns. I must disagree as to
the fact that Japan 'had' the US do anything; the US chose to keep Japan relatively disarmed so as to best use the excuse to use Japan as a military
staging base for their own propagation of the capitalist system in general. The US has done this to a number of countries ( most European countries
could massively expand their armed forces) at massive cost to the US tax payer; obviously something few Americans are aware of. The empire likes to
have allies but if you let them get too strong and assertive well then you have problems.
It’s a routine I suppose you can say. We also owe them a lot of money, so perhaps this is their way of using our debt to them as leverage.
I know Japan could put together a top-notch nuclear program if they wanted to.
I agree. Japan were allowed to undermine the American heavy industry in significant ways ( long before China, Taiwan and South Korea came on the
scene) so as to create markets and provide them with the payoffs that would keep their leadership pliant and without much reason to fight for a
independent course of Japan. This is what the Romans and practically every other empire did to keep their client states/allies in line and sooner or
later it has the very same result on the empires original stronghold. I heard the rumours about how quickly Japan could put together a nuclear arsenal
a decade ago so perhaps it's even faster today...
Japan already has extensive PATRIOT systems brought in by the US. The odds of an incoming missile getting through are low. The problem
today is the pace at which things can escalate. A large scale missile barrage could occur over the course of two hours. That’s all they need...two
hours! Things can get to be looking similar to your avatar in that very brief amount of time.
I don't put much faith in the patriot system itself but perhaps the Japanese will not accept the assurances and modify it in ways that might enable a
better interception record than in the last few times i didn't even manage to stop scuds and as ancient silkworms. Either way i could go into a
great deal of detail as to how the British home office prepared hundreds of thousands of death 'cerficates' as that is the type of casualties they
expected based on the 'bomber always go trough' pre war data. As we all know that wasn't the case and the entire Luftwaffe campaign killed about 40
000 Brits. I expect that these prompt casualties are overstated even if no precautions are taken and in fact were used back then to discourage such
preparations as, well, it wouldn't be 'enough'; same logic employed with MAD despite the fact testing showed just how much you could do to limit
casualties to a small percentage.
Either way my Avatar doesn't involve a nuclear blast, a sunrise really, and if this link to my profile works you should get a bit more detail of the
'assassin' (created by Cpt based Dave Wilson)
South Korea is in the same boat as I just discussed. We’re not talking days. We’re talking immediate. When I was there I was told that
five minutes is all the time we have from launch to impact. Five minutes!
But this would be unlikely to happen without a period of escalation when a significant proportion of South Koreans could be evacuated to safer areas.
Admittedly five minutes isn't much but then a artillery shell or scud isn't exactly nuclear tipped; well not yet.
I’m sure that other countries would protest a military action, but those are simply words, nothing more. The North Koreans could be in
Seoul within two hours if they took their time. I know that South Korea is very heavily armored. I know it would be one hell of a fight, but it
would be a quick one. It would go something like this. You go to bed at midnight and see that nothing is happened. You wake up at 5 a.m. the next
morning and all you see on the news is that 45 Million are reportedly dead in Korea and that counter attacks are ongoing.
The North Koreans could get trough good volume of shells in a few hours but there is no practical way from them to get to Seoul in that time period
despite the fact that it's a obvious target. Caen were a major target during operational overlord and yet , because the Germans also understood that
they couldn't lose it, the allies did not manage to take it for two months . If South Korea wishes to defend Seoul , as i am confident they will, it
would cost the North Koreans hundreds of thousands of casualties to encircle it and doubly so to take it. Chemical and biological weapons are fine
ways to kill civilians but the military uses are as limiting to your side as it is to them; defending a bunker in NBC suit is not hard as compared to
dismounting in the effort to capture one.
War these days is far faster than even it was during the Gulf Wars to the point it literally is unnerving. We are there as a deterrent only.
North Korea knows we have extensive reach back capability.
Well i don't buy into all the hype/propaganda and i am familiar with many things that even uniformed people don't seem to be when it comes to these
'super' weapons. From my lay opinion it's not so much that war is 'faster' but that there is less and less hours of rest as night fighting
capabilities and mobility&intelligence capacities increases. Having said that i am not a fanboy and don't buy into very many claims of smart weapons
and all that. The idea that weapons flies into windows and are overwhelmingly smarter than they were during the gulf war is mostly just that and even
then it was obvious that weapons were not nearly as smart or are prevalent on the battlefield as propaganda suggested. Bombs are basically still very
dumb and don't often go exactly where you want them even if you had the capacity to know where exactly you want them. The war over the DMZ will in
my opinion be a brutal attritional slug fest given the truly massive volumes of deeply buried stores on hand as well as the numbers of men and
machines to wield them.I wont even go into how the millions of conscripts on both sides could be in action within hours, days and weeks depending on
their readiness levels. In such situations there isn't 'gaps' to aim for and the concentration of forces required to make them allows enemy
reserves to handily move into place. And no, tactical nukes wont in my opinion change anything for either side in terms creating breaches.
So yes, i don't expect Seoul to be occupied but given the extreme size of North Korean special forces ( of obvious dubious quality) much of South
Korea might experience infrastructure sabotage.
I fear that Ki Jong-Il no longer cares. I don’t know why American’s are still in South Korea. I honestly don’t. To be honest, I
think it’s a legacy thing. Sadly, it isn’t our call, it’s the President’s.
They have not done so yet so i don't see why they should now? If the North Koreans were going to exploit their oppertunities and strength the mid
70's to mid 80's were their 'chance' ( when the USSR reached at least strategic parity; supremacy in my opinion) and i don't think the large
scale run down of the US armed forces in the mid and late 90's helped to recreate those circumstances.