North Korea to be attacked; U.S. Nuclear first strike "likely" - Trustable info?

Originally posted by mckyle
As for the Armistice, it's still intact. N.Korea are just just posturing at moment.

Originally posted by bpg131313
You're wrong.

Extract From The Australian Newspaper

"The US-led UN Command in South Korea yesterday rejected the Korean People's Army repudiation of the armistice agreement and said it remained binding on all parties, including the North Koreans. The regime said on Wednesday that it was no longer bound by the armistice, that legally a state of war had resumed on the Korean peninsula and that it would attack any force that tried to halt or inspect its shipping. "The armistice has served as the legal basis for the ceasefire in Korea for over 55 years and significantly contributes to stability in the region," a UN Command spokesman said. "The armistice remains in force and is binding on all signatories, including North Korea. The UN Command will adhere to the terms of the armistice and the mechanisms that support it."

I still stand by my initial claim. The armistice is still intact. It's dissolution can only come about by joint declaration or recommencement of hostilities by all parties.

Having said that, this current situation has gone higher up the scale than most previous incidents.

Contrary to what many believe, China is no longer the staunch ally that it once was. It sees N.Korea as an embarrassment and a liability, but still finds itself historically and ideological tied to N.Korea - courtesy of the original conflict in 1950.

As a result, it won't just be Washington mulling over the next move, there will be much consternation in Beijing over this situation too.

[edit on 28-5-2009 by mckyle]

[edit on 28-5-2009 by mckyle]

There were a lot of questions raised about why this is happening now and what China gets out of it. Found this article coming out of South Korea and I find it interesting.

source: english.chosun.com...

Paragraph I found most interesting:
"The South Korean military is most concerned about illegal fishing near the NLL by Chinese fishing boats. Currently, some 300 Chinese fishing boats are engaged in illegal fishing in waters off Yeonpyeong and Daecheong islands near the NLL. The military speculates that more Chinese fishing boats will arrive, with about 2 more tons of fish expected to be caught than last year."

If I am to read this correctly, then while everybody is watching North Korea, China is moving their fishing boats in and reportedly making a lot of money off of illegal fishing.

Interesting.

Originally posted by lpowell0627
There were a lot of questions raised about why this is happening now and what China gets out of it.

Whilst there are numerous squabbles between South Korea and China, China most likely has nothing to do with N.Korea's latest tantrum. In fact I think China right now is wishing N.Korea would just disappear.

South Korea and China have a substantial trade relationship, and given the current state of global economics, China will not be keen on upsetting one of it's biggest trade partners. Indeed, I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility for China to be considering bumping off a certain N.Korean leader.

[edit on 28-5-2009 by mckyle]

“We are talking about conventional war in Korea”

A conventional war in the Korean peninsula could quickly kill tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of people, estimates Joseph Cirincione, nuclear disarmament expert from the Ploughshares Fund.

“The border between the two Koreas is the most heavily armed in the world and most militarized section of the Earth as well right now. Conventional weapons alone could cause tremendous devastation in just the first few hours of a conflict.”

Watch also the newsvideo from RT!

www.russiatoday.com...

Originally posted by Toecutter.
Kim is Angry, he has been watching Mad TV Parodies of Himself

Seriously though my take on this is.

1. Stop giving foreign aid to them period, if a country can't stand on it's own two feet something is wrong, that needs fixing from the inside.



3. Call all troops home from south korea.

4. Sit back and watch.

1) Stop giving them foreign aid and all you are doing is killing thousands of innocents. Kim Jong Il will still live in his palace, watch his movies, eat his delicacies. All you would be doing is pinching those that are already pinched.

3)Call all the troops home from S. Korea and NK WILL invade. Guaranteed. Not to mention that the U.S. has been using SK as a tactical sight since the war.

4)You want to watch the slaughter of inocents? Yikes



5)

Originally posted by Totalstranger
yeah I don't believe it either. too bad though, if we nuked them, maybe all those other rogue countries might believe us.

So, what makes the U.S. so great that all other countires *SHOULD* listen to them? What is your basis for this statement?

Also, why would you want to see wwIII?

Originally posted by cautiouslypessimistic
As I pointed out earlier, we used nuclear weapons in preemptive strikes against Iraq and Afghanistan, so what makes you think we wouldnt in a nation that has ACTUAL MILITARY TECH AD CAPABILITY?

Hi,

I am not aware of any sources that proves or even suggests that nuclear weapons or bunker busters were used against either Iraq or Afghanistan. I agree that the technology exists but it isn't without trouble's we can discuss if your interested.

I'm not saying its going to happen. I am saying it is by no means out of the question though.

Nuclear bunker busters would have to be manufactured by the thousands to have any impact on North Koreas elaborate defensive works. In fact unless cruise missile manufacturing lines are reopened to manufacture the tens of thousands of cruise missiles required to employ both them and conventional warheads the point is pretty moot. Either way you can not really 'win' when China might very well draw the exact same line in the sand as they did back during the Korean war. I wouldn't call their bluff again as this time their comparatively heavily armed and we all remember what they managed with light infantry weapons....

Stellar

The article simply doesn't add up as it should. he author leaves out names and important data where it should be. The claim, with lots of appropriate data, is about the well-known Patriot missiles - why in the world wouldn't we ALREADY HAVE THOSE in South Korea!??

Sensationalist junk, imo

Originally posted by cautiouslypessimistic

Originally posted by Totalstranger
yeah I don't believe it either. too bad though, if we nuked them, maybe all those other rogue countries might believe us.

So, what makes the U.S. so great that all other countires *SHOULD* listen to them? What is your basis for this statement?

Also, why would you want to see wwIII?

cautiouslypessimistic: this is first time I have had the pleasure of reading your posts, and you come across as someone with a handle on the geopolitical landscape.

Unfortunately, the same can't be said of some individuals who think the nuclear option is a great way to reaffirm our 'might', whilst putting those less-enlightened in their place.

Colonel Kilgore's "blow em back to the stoneage", sadly rings true of the mentality of too many.

Originally posted by runetang
I think Kim Jong-Il will definitely use nukes, even if they're weak nukes compared to modern nukes (ICBM warheads).

Hi Rune,

Why would he use the few nuclear weapons they have in anything but self defense? Perhaps you don't realise it but not everyone believes that North Korea is in fact a 'rogue state' and that many believes that it has like Cuba, Vietnam,Iraq, Yugoslavia and Afghanistan been the victim of US national security state imperialist aims?

He's been devoting the entire countries budget to defense ever since he took power, at the expense of his people starving.

No he has not. Please cite sources if your going to make this type of ridiculous statements. The starvation happened in the 90's when the US were able to redirect it's aggressive energies to Iraq, North Korea and other nations that it wanted to isolate and destroy. As can be seen North Korea has done relatively well by avoiding getting either bombed or invaded, unlike Iraq and a few other states.

As long as the soldiers are well fed, he cares not.

Actually the strategic storehouses where opened a long, long time ago and pretty much exhausted after years of draughts and floods; the soldiers worked the fields as everyone else and they would have gone hungry as well.

He has the type of megalomanic personality to spark off a war with an atomic bomb simply because he is getting old and wants to do it before he dies; wants to experience it before he dies.

Well that's certainly what i am hearing from the same people who seems to talk about the 'axis of evil' but it's not the type of nonsense reasoning i prescribe to. In fact i am glad i don't believe in such rubbish; could just as well tell me stories about how the devil is going to get me.

Perhaps he feels justified to get to play top General in a war. I mean .. he does consider that military HIS creation ...

Where do you get this information from?

It doesnt look good. At least China and Russia are not supporting N. K., although they wouldn't want to deal with us much either. It would be a stick situation for sure.

Actually North Korea seems to be following pretty much the same path as China during the 80's even if it's much harder given the standoff after the Korean war the US refuses to end by signing a official peace treaty. Maybe if the US national security were not so hell bent on destroying alternative social models we could see a unified ( and trough a peace full re-unification) North and South Korea within a few decades but while it intervenes in the way it has chosen the North will be forced to keep arming itself for self defense.

Stellar

I still stand by my initial claim. The armistice is still intact. It's dissolution can only come about by joint declaration or recommencement of hostilities by all parties.

Those at the UN may be saying this because they quite frankly have no idea what is going on (as usual). As far as the UN spokesman having the audacity to say an armistice is in effect until all signing members agree that it's not, that's just flat out irresponsible at best and gravely dangerous at worst. This is war we're talking about here. If one side says it's out of the armistice, the other side had better be readying itself for the sucker punch that is sure to follow shortly thereafter. I'd love nothing more than to hear North Korea exclaim loudly, "Just kidding." I don't want this to go down. I've spent time there. I've been to the DMZ. I don't wish this on anyone. When North Korea backed out of the Armistice it was for their own reasons. Something is brewing. Beware the sucker punch. I'll also repeat my prior statement. I trust nothing the UN says.

I have just joined today, after lurking forever. The situation with North Korea is the motivation for signing up.

June should be an interesting month, and I am going to keep an eye on developments closely, particularly the third week in June. I am an amateur astrologer, and there are some interesting hard aspects coming up in North Korea's chart then.

I hope for no war, no attacks, no missiles or nukes being tossed about, and rely on those here who know far more about the reality of the situation to keep me informed. I am very impressed that ATS called it before the MSM.

Originally posted by bpg131313
When North Korea backed out of the Armistice it was for their own reasons. Something is brewing.

I like your posts on this topic. Very informative.

Do you think N.Korea's filibuster has anything to do with S.Korea participating in the US-led program to seize suspected WMD shipments?

That's going to impede N.Korea's cash flow substantially and I think what most of this posturing is about.

Originally posted by intelinside451
With headlines like news.bbc.co.uk... "
Alert level raised in S. Korea and the U.S. and then North Korea's tantrum worries Russia and China seattletimes.nwsource.com...

Looks to me like this story has some substance to it. But on the other hand, if a story like this hit main stream today, the sheep would be running around like a chicken with it's head cut off. I can see why this isn't blasted all over the news stations.

That could supposedely explain why the link to Seattletimes have been disabled.

reply to post by mckyle


There are a lot of things this could be about, that we’re simply unable to see given our limitations. It is likely that the blockade by the Navy to search all ships for WMD is seen by North Korea as a declaration of war (because technically it is). My guess is that North Korea already has enough fissile material to construct at least one more device (if it isn’t already constructed and awaiting deployment). The incoming material they seem to be looking for may not actually be incoming at all, in which case they are boarding all of these vessels as an intimidation tactic.

When it comes to these shipments, I know our government uses satellites to track all vessels inbound and outbound in the region. They know where they came from and they know where they are going well before they ever get there. Ships can only travel so fast, after all. If North Korea is shipping weapons, we know where they are going because we follow them (you don’t think all of those satellite techs spend all their time peaking through bedroom windows from 300 miles up do you?).

There are a lot of things this could be. This could be North Korea during the opening days of it’s “last hooray”. It could be North Korea deliberately providing a distraction for something else going on. This could be another one of Kim Jong-Il’s bluffs. This could be many things. Knowing that, what do we know for certain?

1. We know that North Korea has constructed all on it’s own, and detonated two nuclear devices. This has been confirmed.

2. We know that Japan is significantly nervous about the rocket launches that have been occurring, to include the last satellite test (and don’t think for a second that there wasn’t a US sub out there retrieving that wreckage the second it hit bottom to see what it really was).

3. We know that foreign governments are looking to test President Obama, and everyone is watching how he handles this.

4. We know that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is currently in China for climate talks (most likely as a decoy for other talks).

Keep in mind this is taking into account that I’m specifically avoiding tying this to any possible collusion between North Korea and Iran. There’s no solid evidence that I’ve seen to indicate it’s going on. But it might be.

I have a sinking feeling that June is going to be a rough month if the information in that OP link is factual.

North Korea, similar to Iran and Venezuela, is like an upset stepchild sitting in the corner ( or a celebrity whose fame has long left them). Nobody cares about them, their impact or contribution to the world or to their own citizens is marginal at best, and they need attention...just like the has been celebrities....always wanting to be important but will always be insignificant in the grand sceme of things. In essence, North Korea and cohorts are basically bumps on a pickle in the pickle jar.

reply to post by CZBR51

On FOX news the reporter covering the story said a source in the White House who wished to remain unnamed, said that satellite imagery being studied by analysts has shown that NK looks to be or about to transport a warhead from a military lab under observation. He did stress that this was only a report and not confirmed.

The reporter went on to say they have no idea what it could be but all the intel on NK says they have not got nuke warheads yet and i also believe they don't. So i wonder what they are up to, some sort of warhead or test warhead.

That article is complete baloney, it was made up, fabricated.

Does anyone here really believe the US would just start nuking N. Korea?
And that Russia and China would all be ok with it?

This is one of the most ridiculous things I have read here.

There's no need to nuke anyone. We all will just wait and watch and take the appropriate counter steps. It's all a big show.

China is in charge with this, it is their problem.

Weaponizing a nuke is mighty easy if you can throw a long or intermediate range rocket. The weight of an old fashioned abomb can be enormous but even using readily available plans online, you can miniaturize to the point where a long range rocket can carry to an intermediate or short range. Instead of using the energy for long range travel, you adjust accordingly for shorter range and higher lift capacity/boosters etc. If they can pack it into a refrigerator, they can lob it just about anywhere intermediate range or less after just a couple tests. Hence the recent tests. I'm sure they were lift/function tests.

Debating whether or not they can throw a nuclear rock at SK or Japan is useless... They can! Once the weight limitations are worked out, you test a new lighter design, which I think they just did.

They can already lob it at their neighbors for certain. Even a half dozen idiots could figure it out within just a few delivery tests.

The question is WILL THEY DO IT?

I happened to have mentioned this to a few people today and the most common response was, "good, get rid of north korea." quite disturbing to think this could be encouraged.
my opinion is the leaders of north korea, (dont feel like speeling their names) and even iran for that matter just want to be taken seriously, so they will do whatever they need to do in order to be taken seriously. even if it is a suicide mission for the country as a whole.
my suggestion, which will never be considered by government or maybe anyone else, (even though its right) is we should treat them with respect. we should ask them what they want, ask them to spell it out. if it is clear we dont like what they want, then we ask them, well could we change this? could we change that? can we work out a compromise?
what is so wrong with that? they are only terrorists or radicals because it is not what we want, or because its not us being persecuted or put down. you have to understand their mind set. if everything went wrong or not your way your whole life you may feel and do the same. just try and put yourself in their mindset and how one could have gotten their. and before you know it you have a solution.