North Korea to be attacked; U.S. Nuclear first strike "likely" - Trustable info?

Originally posted by detachedindividual

Originally posted by mckyle
As for the Armistice, it's still intact. N.Korea are just just posturing at moment.

[edit on 28-5-2009 by mckyle]

I'm afraid it's not.

N.Korea declared yesterday that compliance with this agreement is no longer their desire.
They have stated that if SK and the U.S. attempts to interfere in any of their shipping they will attack SK.

The only way a country can "un-sign" a document or agreement is through statement of intention to divorce themselves from it. They have stated it, it is fact.

This is potentially the most dangerous aspect of this entire scenario now. If the U.S. and SK do not stop and search any vessel, their agreement seems pointless and without any credibility. If they do, NK will have to attack SK, or look foolish and back down on their threat.

Personally, I don't think this will happen.

I am certain that there will be an incident at the border and that it will quickly spiral out of control, and NK will step over the divide into the South.
They've spent fifty years pulling faces at each other across that border, and now the South is bolstering their defences there if voices from the villages along that border are to be believed.

I don't think we (outside nations) should be complacent here. We are expecting NK to be posturing for attention and aid, for the world to make concessions, but NK has spent fifty years building their military, and these new events are happening at such a pace as to indicate that this isn't merely same-old-story attention seeking.

If they wanted to get attention, they did that with the nuclear test. That is the ultimate attention grabber, nothing else is needed.
Why step further and test rockets, start up the nuclear facility to develop more plutonium, break the armistice...?

Right now they're testing the waters, they know that the world is thinking they're just seeking a deal, and they're using the delay to put the final touches in place.

But, ultimately, regardless of whether this is posturing or not, something HAS to be done to contain the threat.
If countries are nervous of Iran, and while they are nowhere near this level of capability, it stands to reason that NK should be halted in their tracks a decade ago!

Bluffing or not, something has to be done now to prevent greater bloodshed later.

Yeah, South Korea won't even put their ships within 50 miles of any North Korean shipping now.
It's just like a bully in school, South Korea will keep backing up, they won't do anything to provoke North Korea.

Originally posted by ROBL240
The US would most likely drop a TSAR bomb over N.Korea to show they mean buisness, then promptly tell them "the next one wont be so clean."

Yeah sure,

Source

Developed by the Soviet Union, the bomb was originally designed to have a yield of about 100 megatons of TNT; however, the bomb was reduced by half in order to limit the amount of nuclear fallout that would result.

The Tsar Bomba was a three-stage hydrogen bomb with a yield of about 50 megatons.[3] This is equivalent to ten times the amount of all the explosives used in World War II combined, including Little Boy and Fat Man, the bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki.[4]

[edit on 2009/5/28 by reugen]

Ah shoot not a TSAR, im thinking of the other one. The Airburst-Vacuum device which has the explosive energy of Hiroshima but without the fallout.

It said Thursday through its official media that it was preparing for an American-led attack. The U.S. has repeatedly denied it is planning military action.

"The northward invasion scheme by the U.S. and the South Korean puppet regime has exceeded the alarming level," the North's main Rodong Sinmun newspaper said in a commentary carried by the official Korean Central News Agency. "A minor accidental skirmish can lead to a nuclear war."

A South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff officer, speaking on condition of anonymity citing department policy, said the South's military has also bolstered "personnel and equipment deployment" along its land and sea borders.

He said, however, that there has been no particular movement of North Korean troops along the heavily fortified border areas.

There are 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea and another 50,000 in Japan. All are within striking range of North Korea's missiles.

Though the officer refused to give details, South Korea's mass-circulation JoongAng Ilbo newspaper reported Thursday that Seoul has recently deployed more anti-air missiles and artillery at its military bases on islands near the disputed western sea border with North Korea.

A South Korean destroyer also has been deployed near the sea border to prepare for any provocations, the newspaper said.

Originally posted by xxpigxx
Hold on tight.

Make sure the handlebar is secure on your lap, and your seat-belts buckled.

this is going to be a wild roller coaster ride.

We've been "holding on" as tight as we can. How long can a seatbelt protect you from a driver who crashes repeatedly? This is more like boarding a "roller coaster" knowing the track isn't complete.

Either don't get on, or expect to get screwed. Good luck!


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Lets do things properly, please.

This is not surprising.

Remember North Korea and Iran are not members of the NWO. So it is expected that war between the NWO member countries and the 'rogue' nations will ultimately happen if no diplomatic/sanction forced methods fail.

You can see this taking place financially and politically throughout the world - right now before our eyes.

No one can 100% predict if THIS is the one to start it all off, or another event in the future. But it should come as no surprise to anyone when it does, as this scenario has been on the cards (and predicted) for a very long time.

In order for a One World Govt to truly take shape ALL nations must come to the party. Right now we have two major forces in the world thumbing their noses at the NWO.
More importantly they know the squeeze is on, and are desperate to hold onto their independence from the NWO, which they think nuclear capabilities will safeguard them against takeover.

So you can pretty much bank on the fact something is going to happen before either of these countries become a nuclear player.

Originally posted by cautiouslypessimistic
So you would openly advocate the use of Nuclear weapons? Isn't that why we invaded Iraq, are at odds with Iran, and are considering action against Korea? Because they *may* use nukes?

I will never understand the "we get em, you don't, we can use em, you can't" logic. Seems very arrogant to me.

Agree totally, North Korea is just being maneuvered - they are being set up, and like 911 and every other false flag, people are just going to believe their media that "North Korea is BAD".

Yep - those Muslims are terrorists, banks CAN'T be allowed to fail, Iraq has WMD's, Somalian's are PIRATES, the US DOESN'T torture, Bin Laden is hiding in AFGHANISTAN - what a pile of poop - people believe everything they are told on the media.

Doesn't it ever register that EVERYTHING you've been told is a lie - from the cradle to the grave you have been fed on BS - you know its lies, but can't seem to make that last little step to realize its ALL lies.

Originally posted by Burginthorn
This is not surprising.

Remember North Korea and Iran are not members of the NWO. So it is expected that war between the NWO member countries and the 'rogue' nations will ultimately happen if no diplomatic/sanction forced methods fail.

You can see this taking place financially and politically throughout the world - right now before our eyes.

No one can 100% predict if THIS is the one to start it all off, or another event in the future. But it should come as no surprise to anyone when it does, as this scenario has been on the cards (and predicted) for a very long time.

In order for a One World Govt to truly take shape ALL nations must come to the party. Right now we have two major forces in the world thumbing their noses at the NWO.
More importantly they know the squeeze is on, and are desperate to hold onto their independence from the NWO, which they think nuclear capabilities will safeguard them against takeover.

So you can pretty much bank on the fact something is going to happen before either of these countries become a nuclear player.

Excellently said - people should be fighting FOR North Korea and Iran - they are trying to fight the controllers. The media and propaganda against them alone should make people wonder what is really happening - but people just can't jump over the paradigm. All the enemies of the US are MANUFACTURED by PROPAGANDA.

Your media is the biggest, lying piece of crap in the entire world, and its got everyone turned inside out and upside down - people only know the LIES they have been told, and when asked for an opinion they just parrot the opinion that the media gave them.

With headlines like news.bbc.co.uk... "
Alert level raised in S. Korea and the U.S. and then North Korea's tantrum worries Russia and China seattletimes.nwsource.com...

Looks to me like this story has some substance to it. But on the other hand, if a story like this hit main stream today, the sheep would be running around like a chicken with it's head cut off. I can see why this isn't blasted all over the news stations.

reply to post by Amagnon


Iraq most certainly did have WMD's - they used them against the Kurds killing tens of thousands of people.

WMD does not mean nuclear - it means nuclear OR biological OR chemical weapon of mass destruction.

(In a rush as I have a meeting to go to)

I didn't read all the posts so excuse if already mentioned...

Why would the US throw down a nuclear strike and not use a neutron bomb instead?

Same level of death but with much shorter radiation half-life and less infrastructure damage?

laughable speculation from an utter jackass. Where does this guy get his information?? 'Our source in the State Department...'??? 'Sources with acute knowledge of the plans for North Korea...'?? Pull the other one - it's got bells on lol. He's just pulling this stuff out of his behind.

Ain't no way USA nukes anyone in SE Asia.

Conventional airstrikes, maybe. It'd be great if someone could take out NK's nuclear capabilities, but seems like it'd be hard to guarantee getting everything... although it's hard to imagine that they've got hangers' full of nukes lol.

reply to post by cautiouslypessimistic


My Goodness-- he talked about assassinating elected officials and rounding up Jews?? lol-- what a nutbar, sounds like he should be locked up.

reply to post by KingPen


KingPen,

Good to hear your thoughts on this matter from someone who’s chewed some of the same dirt that I have.

I am aware of the SCUD system that North Korea has in place, and I’m also aware of the extensive PATRIOT Missile systems we have throughout the area (not just along the DMZ). With a launch failure rate of around 20% for well maintained SCUD’s, I’d venture to say that there’s a likelihood of around 40% failing to even get off the ground due to neglect. SCUD’s are also renowned for their horrible guidance systems (especially the older models which are likely to be prominent in North Korea). In the Persian Gulf we saw first hand those things dropping out of the sky nowhere near their intended targets (I remember seeing one in the Marina Shopping Mall in Kuwait City). The OP link specifically noted that additional PATRIOT batteries were recently deployed to both South Korea and Japan. Do I think we’ll get all of them? Certainly not. Do I think we’ll neutralize the majority of the threat? Yes. I have a buddy there right now, in fact, but I haven’t heard back from him yet about this. I told him to keep his M9 tape close and his seal tight.

The OP link specifically mentioned “Multiple cruise missiles using Time of Arrival (TOA) control to detonate simultaneously along the DMZ” effectively wiping out the first wave North Korean forces. I know things have changed a lot as far as tech is concerned since I was in. I’m pretty sure we have drones flying all along the DMZ picking up every heat signature there is. Will we get them all? No. Will we get most? I’m confident that we will. 30 Million people in Seoul are hoping we get them all before they even know what happened.

In conclusion, I am aware of the possible weaponry used by South Korea in an attack. I’m also aware that their nation probably doesn’t do the maintenance and upkeep on their complex weapons systems in order to keep them running like they should. If this whole thing truly goes down, we’ll all know how it plays out.

The best thing Kim Jong-Il can do now is contact the US and issue a formal surrender. Will he do that? Not a snowball’s chance in hell. The hammer is cocked. Who will twitch first is anyone’s guess.

Originally posted by OutShine
reply to post by bpg131313

 

Thanks for your thoughts, they made me think. Ultimately, I stand by what I said, but I do have a few respectfully posed questions for you:

First: Truman was close to the end of a long war with a hard fought enemy, his decision to use nuclear weapons had somewhere in its balance the weight of hundreds of thousands of American lives that would be spared by avoiding a conventional invasion of Japan, and he arguably did not fully comprehend the downstream consequences of unleashing nuclear weaponry into the world. Isn't Obama's decision to use nuclear weapons in a first strike against the DPRK vastly different from Truman's to use them against an old foe? Isn't the decision to use nuclear weapons, particularly in a first strike, radically different what it was in 1945?

President Truman knew that fighting a land battle in Japan would be catastrophic for our troops. It’s important to know your strengths, and more importantly your weaknesses. The best thing we could do in that scenario was to get Japan to surrender without trying to take Japan by force. You also have to remember that Pearl Harbor was still fresh in everyone’s minds at that time. President Obama is in a similar, yet entirely different situation. Due to the success in World War Two, the planet has come to look at America as a global police force, whether we like it or not. The nation of Japan is specifically looking at Obama to make the decisive call and end the threat of a nuclear North Korea (I’m sure the last thing they want is a third nuclear detonation in Japan). China was North Korea’s ally in the Korean War. The OP link specifically states that China was the one that asked the US to end this, with as little damage to China as possible. It is likely that China has grown to see North Korea as a thorn in their side, yet for some reason, can’t bring themselves to do the dirty work. The answer to your specific question of whether the decision to use nuclear weapons, particularly in a first strike, is radically different than it was in 1945, is not a simple one. I believe that by withdrawing from the Armistice, North Korea knew exactly what it was doing. They knew the ceasefire would be ended and that the original Korean War would resume. Kim Jong-Il would have to know that when he did it. If he knew what he was doing, then there’s a high degree of likelihood that he plans on advancing on South Korea and trying to take it over. We have seen long range missile tests. We’ve seen supposed satellite launches (to confirm that the missiles could handle a heavy payload). We have two nuclear tests. We have agreement after agreement being broken by Kim Jong-Il. At what time does the world say enough? I believe that the people of South Korea (30 million in Seoul alone) are hoping we come to their defense. Does that mean a nuclear first strike? Yes. We not only have to take out Kim Jong-Il we also have to take out all successors that are like minded. That means taking out all of the top military tier. The only way to effectively do that in this scenario is a blinding white flash.

Second: Do you really think Kim would destroy Seoul right off the bat? What leverage does he have after that?

I believe that Kim Jong-Il will do precisely that. He knows that Seoul is the Capital and it’s there where most of the dissenters are. He’s looking at this the same way we’re looking at Pyongyang. Take out all of the opposition in government and you have a more assured victory. Don’t forget that Kim Jong-Il is 68 years old. He’s probably come to the conclusion that he’s not going to be around much longer, especially without access to First World healthcare. By destroying Seoul and advancing across the border (remember that Seoul is only about 60 miles from the DMZ) he believes it’s possible to capture the capital and end the war. Obviously, he isn’t thinking clearly.

Third: If we used cruise missiles to wipe out the million man army, as you suggest, why would we need to nuke Pyongyang?

As I mentioned in #1, we not only have to remove Kim Jong-Il from power, we also have to eliminate the top tier of his command structure. I’m confident that we know where these people will be if they are outside Pyongyang. That said, we take out the First Wave along the DMZ and then we take out Pyongyang in order to ensure that the command structure below Kim Jong-Il will not survive. Does that mean a high casualty rate? Certainly. You have to ask yourself this important question. Do you accept 3.5 Million dead, or 30 Million? You bring in politics to it and see that Japan is furious about the second nuclear test, and you have your answer. Elimination of command and control in Pyongyang is a must.

Finally: We are probably quite capable of intercepting many, if not most, of the missiles that could come out of Pyongyang, and they have enough nuclear material for somewhere between 8-16 nuclear weapons. Why would we use nuclear weapons against a country so ill-suited to make good on its posturing?

I'm not trying to be offensively contentious, and I would like to hear what you think.

I commented in another post regarding the effectiveness of the SCUD missile systems, and our interception capabilities. We can not ensure that we will intercept all of the missiles aimed at Seoul. We are aware of North Korea’s NBC capabilities. Our forces have the gear to protect themselves, the civilian population of Seoul isn’t so lucky. A First strike is the best way of ensuring that significant loss of life doesn’t occur in South Korea.

All this said, it all comes down to President Obama. This is his battle now. He has to decide what strategy he wants to use. Kim Jong-Il has repeatedly not kept his word. He’s broken deal after deal. He simply can’t be trusted. Now that North Korea has formally announced withdraw of the Armistice, I have to believe he has other plans in mind. I’d rather make the first move.

Originally posted by mckyle

As for N.Korea, Kim Jong il, is not as crazy as he likes the world to think. He wants recognition and aid, and this is his way of attempting to get it.

I'd love nothing more than to give North Korea recognition and aid. All they have to do is stand their army down and rather than making their lives all about defense of "Dear Leader", they start working to improve their own lives. Naturally, this will never happen while Kim Jong-Il is alive.

As for the Armistice, it's still intact. N.Korea are just just posturing at moment.

You're wrong. Renunciation of an Armistice by any one party is a return to war. North Korea officially withdrew. That's not posturing, it's intentional suicide, unless he's calling out Obama and telling the world that Obama doesn't have the guts to make a move (effectively labeling Obama as all talk / no action on the world stage).

Regardless, we'll all see which leader prevails.

Totally disreputable article aside, I believe China will be the ones to deal with North Korea, not the United States.

You dont have to find and destroy all the artillery pieces. No, I am not naive. I understand that either way, when the bullets start flying, it means very bad things for the South and certain death for the Good people of the North.

However, consider this. An Army is a Living organism. The brain is the Commanders and the Limbs and appendages are the Army.

If you punch someone in the nose, what happens? They start to tear up and cant see you and are a little dizzy for a bit. The opponent will probably flail their limbs around a bit blindly and may land a few good wallops upon you in the meantime, but overall their defense is ineffective until the tears clear up and their head stops swimming.

Now, taking that point one step further, their is a spot between the eyes and slightly above the nose called the Triangle of Death, that when penetrated, instantly stops all brain impulses from leaving the brain and causes sudden and immediate death to the body and appendages. The object of warfare, is to hit that spot. They hit it in Iraq. The Army simply did not show up for the fight.

Sometimes, you miss that spot and must take further actions. If you sever the spine causing a fracture in the information being passed from the head to the limbs, Though Technically those limbs can be stimulated by other sources, they will mostly just flop limply to the sides receiving no instructions to move.

Thus, if you cut the communications totally off to the troops. Same thing will happen. Yes, maybe the local Nerve will try to stimulate the limb and cause it to twitch, but that is all that will happen. Unorganized twitches.

One other thing. Organisms must have Food and Water. Take that away and it will quickly wither and die. Severing the supply lines is an time tested and effective measure of defeating an enemy. However, if that enemy is already FAT, food and water caches. It might take a while longer for it to die.

In short, hit the Command and Control directly in that Triangle of Death and the Body cannot Defend itself and will instantly die.

Of course their are other factors to consider. Insurgence and independent hostile elements of outside influences. However, that is another discussion in of itself.

NK is no different here. Except, their supply lines are already diminished greatly. Sure, the Army probably has a good cache, BUT the people do not. Uncooperative Civilians and Unrest cause a 2nd front to be opened upon the Battle Fields.

NK will be vanquished quickly in this fight. If the Triangle is not struck, massive civilian casualties MUST occur.

I can sum it up in two words for you all.

This Sucks!

[edit on 28-5-2009 by arcnaver]