The Point of Collapse: North Korea

One could say that the next two weeks are some of the most important in modern history. North Korea has successfully tested a Nuclear weapon and has abandoned its ceasefire from 1953 with South Korea.

Russian forces are looking to a higher alert status in the region.
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North Korea is certainly a first strike power, and an attack on South Korea could be devastating. If the attack came, there would be a massive retaliatory response from the United States and its allies in the region. However, the damage may already have been done.

The best case scenario, if we assume that a North Korean offensive is inevitable, is a missile strike launched against Japan rather than South Korea. The United States and Japan already have Aegis-equipped destroyers in the waters off of Japan, so, ideally, no North Korean missile would reach Japanese soil. This would give the United States cassus belli against North Korea and allow for a strike against the North's missile sites. It would also, hopefully, not escalate to a ground war.

However, the most disturbing news comes from the realization that the most likely scenario would be a missile strike against South Korea by the North with an accompanying ground offensive. The battle in the DMZ would be intense, as the United States and South Korea have taken steps in recent months to fortify the area. Clearly, the United States would move troops from Japan and the Pacific, but, it would be a war.

The worst case scenario is if Israel decided to launch its own offensive during this time as Netanyahu has indicated. But, more discussion of that in a subsequent post.

SO, the point to consider: will the next month carry some of the most important events in the last 50 years? Can the Obama administration prevent a war? Is their current strategy effective (i.e. treat the N Koreans like children clamoring for attention)? If the economic trouble gets worse and a war erupts in the Middle East and Korea, are we looking at a SitX moment? Just points to consider.

You make a very good point about Israel. If they do surprise us it will be a huge disaster for the whole world.

We are just standing at the confluence of a large number of different conflicts around the globe. These, individually, might be able to be handled with some skilled diplomacy... but, when you throw the economic situation into the mix... I have some serious doubts about the way in which things could proceed.

The best way to look at things is as a whole. All of the pieces interlock, either for good or for ill. At the moment, things seem to be gliding down a path that leads to... well... things falling apart.

Don't forget the massive network of tunnels under South Korea with their origin in North Korea. The North Koreans have only tested a couple of devices, I suspect their device has not been weaponiz
ed yet, it's one thing to blow up a bomb, another to be able to deliver it via a missile. I would expect the North to drive their weapon South and bring it close to the surface in one of their tunnels near a military base then explode it, claim the Americans did it and launch an all-out defensive war on the South.

The South Koreans will be paralyzed by the attack, the US will be dissuaded from retaliation by threats from China, Russia, and losing focus in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the threat of Iran. Europe will tell the US to sort out their own mess and not get involved.

Chaos will ensure for several weeks, with a human tide of Communist Korean troops rampaging across South Korea, their losses will be terrible as they drive forward like a plague of locust, of a single mind, brainwashed to obey and to conquer.

Finally the US will retaliate, at the point when defeat looks inevitable, a series of non-nuclear surgical strikes will remove the head of the Korean government. The war will then grind to a stalemate, as the red tide is left leaderless at a strategic level. Food, fuel, and a lack of decisiveness will cause the North Koreans to come to a realisation that stopping the war is their best way forward.

Korea will then enter a period of reconstruction, drawn between the desire to become a Westernized country, and those who want to return to their traditions. The US and China will enter a standoff each trying to influence the outcome of the Korean people. Nothing will happen to help the Korean people, they will be devastated by the effects of the nuclear device and the human cost of war and the years of division. Cadres of Kim Jong Il will spring up as terrorist groups causing more untold misery for many years as US Forces effectively occupy Korea, implementing the same failed plans as in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

In the end the people to suffer will be the Korean nation, the brave US men and women of the services, and the relatives of those killed, maimed, and lost in the conflict.

That's broadly how I see things going...not good for anyone.