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Possible Outcomes of Relations with North Korea (Please Help By Submitting Your Own Ideas)

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posted on May, 27 2009 @ 12:08 PM
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North Korea is a hot topic right now. The possibility of war is always an important issue. We here on ATS are always digging through our heads and thinking of possible scenarios for current and future events.

This thread is to discuss possible reactions to the current issues with North Korea.

Here are the Facts:
(1) North Korea has tested a nuclear device.
(2) This device is larger than the one tested in 2006.
(3) NK is currently testing different types of missiles.
(4) NK has reopened a uranium processing plant.
(5) The International Community has taken notice.
(6) The U.N. is in emergency meetings.
(7) South Korea has joined the Non-proliferation treaty.
(8) NK Sees #7 as an act of war.

Let us all gather our brains together and think deeply.

Here are two of my own scenarios for current events.

(1)Kim Jong Ill is currently on his last leg of health. He knows this, and his top military advisers know this. As a last attempt to get his name down in human history Kim is planning for war. He sees the possibility of using nuclear arms in this war as an easy win.

(2)In an attempt to gain free stuff from the international community through the use of a nuclear test, Kim Jong Ill is testing the world's patience with him. Unbeknown to him though this has increased the tension with surrounding nations of Russia and China. If China and Russia pull their support of NK, NK will see itself as under attack and lash out with great force.


Feel free to add your own thoughts to this thread. I would like to see if any of them come to fruition in the future. Though I do hope not violently or with nukes.

[edit on 5/27/2009 by Tentickles]




posted on May, 27 2009 @ 12:15 PM
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The worst case is he invades S. Korea and decides to throw one of those nukes around... either at us or Seoul... we respond and there is a greasy spot where N. Korea was afterward.

The best case is all he is trying to do is get attention and its all bluster.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 12:28 PM
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I can't decide if Kim is trying to provoke us... Or scare us off from trying to invade him. He was clearly trying to send the U.S.A. a message with that nuclear test on our Memorial Day holiday. Was he trying to tell us: 'don't try us or your troops will be decimated'? Or is he getting cocky and feels the need to terrorize us as in 'this is what's coming up'. I'm just not sure.

There is so much propaganda flying around these days, that it's just too hard to tell, you know? In addition to that, the fear mongering and the one-sided news reports don't make things any easier.

Maybe if our government was more truthful with the people, we wouldn't have so many conflicts. As there would be more room for logical assessment... and less room for the 'shoot first ask questions later' mentality.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 12:50 PM
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How about....

The US realises that the Korean war was 56 years ago, and in a remarkable and hitherto (for some reason) unthinkable act of foregin policy, makes a decent attempt to normalise relations with North Korea - instead of sitting 21000 troops on its border, backed with the unoriginal premise of the might of the US nuclear arsenal to "defend" a country that has the worlds 6th largest army against "communism" when the Cold War ended in 1991.

Then UN releases a statement praising the NK's for making such a huge technological achievement in the face of such adversity, and praises the spirit and tenacity of a nation that has been under sanctions for so long, and pledges food aid and technological aid in order to bring North Korea in "from the cold", stops treating them like the naughty kid on the block and actually starts talking to them.

Now....wouldn't that take the wind out of the sails of all that bombastic chest beating and rhetoric?

Imagine that. Imagine a world where something different happens for a change.

Nah. Never going to happen.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 12:55 PM
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How about just ignoring them?

Seriously. After all, that's pretty much what the W administration did that allowed them to get the bomb in the first place: "We won't talk to you til you stop that" was not a very effective policy.

Now that they have a bomb, we're supposed to do what, exactly? Initiate a nuclear war over it?

Braindead morons, full of hubris. Leave 'em alone, they just want the attention.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 12:58 PM
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There is no real benefit to relations with NK beyond them not building nukes and trying to act like a big boy on the playground. The smartest thing anybody can do is to keep watching the country and let it do itself in; any nation that must disassemble and cannibalize cities in order to obtain raw material for new things surely can't be far from a proper collapse.

I think Tentickles idea #2 is the most likely point so far; the DPRK needs access to free things from the outside world in order to stave off collapse and pretty much will go to any length to get it including playing the one card that most nations today keep in their back pocket.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 01:02 PM
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reply to post by neformore
 


Only one problem there . . .

The Cold War has not ended.

It should be blatantly obvious that is hasn't.

Russia, US, China, Korea

And the proxies . . . Iran, Israel, Venezuela, etc.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 01:03 PM
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I'd say that the Obama administration's treating the North Koreans like children has been a terrible mistake. The sheer arrogance of that policy has caused this situation to escalate needlessly.

I am not supporting the previous administration's policies in everything. But, when Bush was in power, the North Koreans had halted enrichment, and were sitting at the negotiation table. When it was clear Obama was coming to power, the wheels fell off of the whole situation.

If Obama does not make a show of strength now (not blowing up people, but, perhaps a nuclear test of our own that puts the North Koreans' to shame?) he will be rendered impotent on the world stage.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 01:07 PM
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reply to post by xxpigxx
 


Ah but it did.

However the rhetoric behind it was very carefully manipulated by the Neocons, skewed slightly sideways, and became the "war on terror" instead, which convientley led the way for new bogeymen, an "Axis of Evil" for the military industrial complex to fight.

If you think the cold war never ended, then I'm not sure you were alive for some, or any of it.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 01:09 PM
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Originally posted by neformore
How about....

The US realises that the Korean war was 56 years ago, and in a remarkable and hitherto (for some reason) unthinkable act of foregin policy, makes a decent attempt to normalise relations with North Korea - instead of sitting 21000 troops on its border, backed with the unoriginal premise of the might of the US nuclear arsenal to "defend" a country that has the worlds 6th largest army against "communism" when the Cold War ended in 1991.

Then UN releases a statement praising the NK's for making such a huge technological achievement in the face of such adversity, and praises the spirit and tenacity of a nation that has been under sanctions for so long, and pledges food aid and technological aid in order to bring North Korea in "from the cold", stops treating them like the naughty kid on the block and actually starts talking to them.

Now....wouldn't that take the wind out of the sails of all that bombastic chest beating and rhetoric?

Imagine that. Imagine a world where something different happens for a change.

Nah. Never going to happen.


This.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 01:23 PM
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reply to post by neformore
 


Gotta agree with what you stated. I would love to see the two countries normalize ties, all sanctions lifted, and the withdrawal of US troops from S. Korea.

I really feel that this would force China to step in and control N Korea's nuke capability.As it is now, China lets NK do what it wants because it keeps the US eyes occupied on NK rather than China. I doubt that China would want to see NK continuing to play with nukes close to China's backyard with the US mostly out of the picture,.

As far as our commitment to protect SK, we can still do that without having to be in a direct line of fire.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 01:26 PM
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reply to post by Tentickles
 
North Korea are fairly savvy brinksmen. They've challenged successive Japanese, S Korean and Western Governments for decades. They're now undermining ties with China. There's a lack of public dialogue with them that leaves their activities open to interpretation by media and Governments alike. I guess what I'm saying is we don't really know what's behind this flurry of provocative behavior. It isn't apparent who the audience for these actions is. Maybe the world at large, their immediate neighbors or the domestic political power base? All of them? KJI could be flexing muscles for domestic political reasons.

A couple of points I'm willing to be corrected on...

They aren't on a 'war footing.' There are no reports that they are mobilizing for an offensive against S. Korea or Japan. The country is highly monitored by their neighbors, Russia and the US.

Increasingly aggressive foreign policies toward N Korea have no precedent of outright success. A 'carrot' approach from China may be more productive than any Western gunboat diplomacy and 'big stick' rhetoric.

The population outside of Pyongyang will be open to new leadership and political direction due to the conditions they have lived with in recent years.

I'm with Vonnegut here...so it goes.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 01:32 PM
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It is only my opinion and humble possible view of these events.

Kim Il-Sung prepared his succession and imposed his son as new NK front ruler. When he died, Kim Jung-Il was accepted as new leader and the succession ran relatively smootly.
Kim Jung-Il is now dying, he is not the powerforce his father was. He has not succeeded in putting one of his son as future ruler. Who will replace him is still unclear. There is a lot happening behind the curtains in the NK elite, factions are struggling. A period of instability is ahead when Kim dies. The militaristic regime fears the opportunity is seized by some to overthrown the regime and remove their power. Kim Jung-Il is not directly in charge anymore and he may have never been. Affairs are run by a cast.
So they gesticulate. They scream and show how overexcited they are. They tell us they are insane and uncaring. They say that they are capable of any stupid thing and they won't act coherently. They are scaring us so we don't try anything to weaken or destroy the regime at an opportunity.

They are looking for status quo. "Don't mess with us, we are complete fools" means "Everyone stays cool at home and everything will be ok".



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 01:42 PM
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Do nothing in the short term with the exception of "talks" and perhaps a UN resolution or two.

Does history with NK not teach us anything?

This is all a test of the new US president and administration. They need to know how far they can push this one, what they can get away with, and ultimately what they AGAIN can get in return for pulling back from their threats and nuclear programs.

We have been through this with NK before, and so far all indications are in-line with the above.

In the end they will stand down, accept concessions in exchange for aid etc. AGAIN, and they will have a good idea how they stand with the new president and administration.

They aren't through pushing yet, my guess if they will stop just short of too far and want to "talk".

Same old story, new president.

[edit on 27-5-2009 by Walkswithfish]



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 02:04 PM
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reply to post by neformore
 


You are right, I was not alive then. But I know my history very well


The Cold War never ended.

It was just shifted down a gear, and is played with proxies, now.



posted on May, 27 2009 @ 02:11 PM
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How about a new deck of cards with the Korean leadership pictured upon.

Drop oodles of them into the depressed country.



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