A380 Break-Even Point Likely To Slip Further to 2020, page 1
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Topic started on 16-5-2009 @ 01:30 AM by FredT
The issue now is not production problems but rather defered deliveries for the airframe. Boeing is having similar issues with its 777 and 787 which has not even had its first flight.

The question I always go after as many well know, these subsadies and loans they have recived now are not going to be payed back untill 2020? The inital break even point was to have been 250 aircraft but now its closer to 500???

Must be nice


Mounting deferrals of A380s are further undermining Airbus’s efforts to achieve profitability for the program, and could push the financial break-even point for the aircraft past 2020.

Although airlines aren’t singling out the A380 for deferrals—Boeing 777s, 787s and other aircraft types are similarly affected—the postponements spell particular trouble for the economics of the mega-transport. Airbus is in a critical period of ramping up production of the A380 to gain efficiencies and make up for the greatly increased development costs that surged by billions as a result of the two-year delay in the program. If those efforts stall due to sagging demand, it will increase the challenge to reach financial viability for the aircraft.

Airbus has ceased providing a break-even number for the aircraft—following the lead of rival Boeing—but cost increases owing to program delays have effectively meant the aircraft maker would have to sell more than 500 of the aircraft to turn a profit. So far, it has 200 firm orders. The original break-even point was around the 250th unit.
www.aviationweek.com.../aw st_xml/2009/04/20/AW_04_20_2009_p43-133953.xml&headline=A380+Break-Even+Point+Likely+To+Slip+Further



reply posted on 16-5-2009 @ 05:51 AM by RichardPrice
Originally posted by FredT
The question I always go after as many well know, these subsadies and loans they have recived now are not going to be payed back untill 2020? The inital break even point was to have been 250 aircraft but now its closer to 500???


Ahh more of the same old rubbish.

The loans and RLI (repayable launch investment) is getting paid back with every airframe delivered, and that timeline has nothing to do with the break even point moving at all.

If the original break even point was 250 airframes, then the repayable launch investment will be repayed in full when the 250th airframe is delivered - the thing that is pushing the break even point up is the additional costs suffered by Airbus due to delay compensation and extra expenditure incured during development.

Put simply, the breakdown of repayment schedules with each airframe delivered is thus:

Airframes 1 - 250: Airframe construction costs, Airbus/EADS investment, 3rd party investment, RLI from governments.

Airframes 251 - X: Airframe construction costs, Airbus/EADS additional investment, new loans to cover additional costs

The amount repaid to initial investors and governments per each airframe delivered was set at the start of the A380 development program - it does not change, and thus 3rd party investors and governments will get their original investments back on the airframe delivery schedule they initially agreed to.

So the answer to your question is 'no'. But it won't stop you asking the question, will it?


reply posted on 16-5-2009 @ 07:40 AM by Harlequin
www.faqs.org...

The United States and the European Union are having a trade fight on the issue of, government aid to Boeing co. and Airbus. The complaints are so large, the United States alleges $15 billion in illegal EU subsidies to airbus while the European Union claims $23 billion in unfair U.S government aid to Boeing, that the outcome could increase costs, not just of air travel, but also of other goods on both sides of the Atlantic.



so whislt you says `interest free loans` fred , the governement DID give aid to boeing - both sides here arn`t really whiter than white



reply posted on 16-5-2009 @ 07:58 AM by FredT
reply to post by RichardPrice



Wow somebody sure woke up on the wrong side fo the subsadies eh?

I thought this thread was about the A380 not the F-136. If you dont have a source, there is no need to go all strawman on it


reply posted on 16-5-2009 @ 10:31 AM by Harlequin
reply to post by C0bzz



year to date:

boeing:

737 41
747 -1
777 8
787 -49 (was -57 till they got 8 last week)

total for year to date for boeing is

-1


active.boeing.com...

total orders for boeing year 2008

active.boeing.com...

644 aircraft of which

430 are 737 family.

narrowbodies keep the companies in business.

current market prices for the 787 and A350 are very very similar , the A350 weighing in around $160million with the 787-8 at 161>171 million

www.boeing.com...

before discounts of course

airbus:

total orders 2008 are 777

of which 472 are the A320 family

www.airbus.com...

the current year to date info on airbus site is a bit of a messy excel sheet


edit:

as of todays date there are 861 firm orders for the 787 family , BUT in my opinion the 43 for the 787-3 will be scrapped , as that version is rather close to being chopped.

with the current climate i can see the real number of orders dipping under 800 sooner rather than later.


for the A350

www.airbus.com...


478 , although again look at reducing downwards when compnaies go bust or can`t pay

[edit on 16/5/09 by Harlequin]


reply posted on 23-5-2009 @ 02:49 PM by FredT
reply to post by kilcoo316



The difference is that the EU etc does research and this type of pump priming as well. Are you saying the the EU spends zero in this type of research?

Add to that launch aid and loans that only have to be repaid if the venture is profitiable.



reply posted on 4-6-2009 @ 11:14 AM by kilcoo316
Freddie boyo, have a wee gander at this:

www.defense-aerospace.com...



WRIGHT-PATTERSON AIR FORCE BASE, Ohio --- Members of the Air Force Research Laboratory and Lockheed Martin's famed 'Skunk Works' launched a new era of aircraft manufacturing technology and performance with the successful initial demonstration flight of the Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft June 2 at Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, Calif. The ACCA is a modified Dornier 328J aircraft with the fuselage aft of the crew station and the vertical tail removed and replaced with completely new structural designs made of advanced composite materials fabricated using out-of-autoclave curing.


and

The road to this first flight started over a decade ago with industry and government laboratories collaborating in the AFRL-led Composites Affordability Initiative (CAI), a series of critical development steps in both materials and manufacturing technologies designed to mature dramatic, cost-saving processes.


Now, do you really think the AFRL are not going to get this out to Boeing?

If your thinking no.

www.ml.afrl.af.mil...

The Composites Affordability Initiative (CAI) team consisting of the Air Force Research Laboratory's Materials and Manufacturing Directorate and Air Vehicles Directorate, the Navy's Office of Naval Research, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman, has developed a relational database to archive all test data and make the data accessible to all team members for current and future use.




The lines linking Boeing to the US govt are much more blurred than Airbus and the EU... that does not mean they do not exist.


reply posted on 10-6-2009 @ 06:58 PM by Harlequin
reply to post by Seekerof



whats thet problems with an A330 got to do with this thread?
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