Swine flu set to spread, reported cases surge: WHO, page 1

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ATS Members have flagged this thread 2 times

Topic started on 15-5-2009 @ 10:49 PM by TheAssociate

Swine flu will spread further across the world, experts at the World Health Organisation warned Friday, as the number of confirmed cases surged by more than 1,000 and the US reported two more deaths.
source

Just when you think it's over, they come out and say something like this. Is there really something to fear or is the WHO engaged in disinformation? I'm beginning to believe the latter.

Acting WHO Assistant Director-General Keiji Fukuda told reporters that studies by experts indicated a "significant number of people" had been infected, but remained undetected or unconfirmed by laboratory tests.

They make vague, indefinite statements like that one and expect people to continue to listen. This could be dangerous if this virus is actually dangerous, because people aren't going to believe them when. They're starting to remind me of the little boy who cried "wolf."

TA

reply posted on 15-5-2009 @ 10:56 PM by heyo

Damned if yo do, damned if you don't.
You're right the media has cried wolf a lot and that IS the most dangerous thing. We need to keep our eyes under the table.

reply posted on 15-5-2009 @ 10:59 PM by soficrow

Important news. Flagged.

H1N1 obviously is spreading. Even if the current form doesn't kill many people, the situation still very, very dangerous.

Why?

Because the more people H1N1 infects, the more likely it is to cross-breed or reassort with another, more lethal virus like H5N1 bird flu, AIDS, Ebola or rabies (for example).

When people (or pigs, birds or other animals) are infected with more than one disease, the danger is that the host will act as a "mixing vessel" and allow a new disease to evolve.

This WILL happen - the only question is "When?"

reply posted on 15-5-2009 @ 11:09 PM by TheAssociate

reply to post by soficrow

Excellent point, soficrow and thanks for the flag. This virus will get more dangerous, i'm just afraid that by the time that happens, the WHO and the media will have lost all credibility in reporting on the situation. Oh well, nothing to do but wait and see.

TA

reply posted on 15-5-2009 @ 11:12 PM by heyo

reply to post by soficrow

Why is the risk of H1N1 mutating any higher than the risk of any regular flu strain mutating? were there deaths in 1st world countries occuring in a usually strong demographic like 18-36 or something? And stats from mexico don't take into account the fact that we're just cleaner up here. Not trying to be insulting. No sarcasm either.

reply posted on 15-5-2009 @ 11:26 PM by OmegaPoint

World Breaking News

Some people have the flu

Many are sick at home recovering

Other people are catching it, and they too are off work at home recovering.

Run for your LIVES!

reply posted on 15-5-2009 @ 11:41 PM by soficrow

Originally posted by heyo
reply to post by soficrow

Why is the risk of H1N1 mutating any higher than the risk of any regular flu strain mutating?

The risk of mutation isn't higher - but H1N1 - and some other diseases like H5N1 bird flu - already have key mutations that bring them close to being very bad (fast spreading, highly lethal).

If the wrong mutations get together - and they will - then we will face an fast spreading, very lethal new combination of mutations in one disease or another.

were there deaths in 1st world countries occuring in a usually strong demographic like 18-36 or something?

The info says that the hardest hit are the young, aged about 18-40, and those already sick with chronic disease. NO (or few) elderly have succumbed.

And stats from mexico don't take into account the fact that we're just cleaner up here. Not trying to be insulting. No sarcasm either.

We do need to keep social distance, and wash hands etc. BUT - anyone can get sick. Becoming infected is NOT a sign of bad personal hygiene.

...It's just that social distancing and personal hygiene are the only defenses we have right now. Make the best of them - but please, don't judge others who get sick no matter how hard they try...

reply posted on 15-5-2009 @ 11:44 PM by Magnivea

It seems like the less people pay attention to this, the more dire the warnings. I do think it's intentional.

I have not seen a report about H1N1 in about a week, but two weeks ago it's all I heard about. It was sensationalism to get people into a panic and take precautions when they were not necessary.

Now that the public is less interested and I've seen more stories on John Edwards' cheating on his wife, when it does mutate (probably intentionally) and people really start dying it will be ignored for long enough to really get a foothold. And the news networks will still be in the clear because the current sparse coverage coupled with the beating the story to death a few weeks ago will give them more than enough room to say "told you so."

reply posted on 15-5-2009 @ 11:56 PM by heyo

reply to post by Magnivea

Haha you're right. I can just see tptb's sitting on their collective highchair and crying about how the manipulation didn't work this time...until they release the strain that is designed to combine with it and cause a dire epidemic that is!!!
joke.
I hope.

reply posted on 16-5-2009 @ 03:46 AM by CultureD

reply to post by soficrow

4500 hundred kids at home- in NY, schools are closed- one person is in critical condition- and the speculation is that that H1 N1 is mutating into a MORE virulent strain....hmmmm

www.nydailynews.com...

reply posted on 16-5-2009 @ 07:02 AM by CultureD

reply to post by TheAssociate

From the BBC and my post a few days ago:

posted on 12-5-2009 @ 07:21 AM single this post "quote"REPLY TO:

WOW- This just published on BBC RSS feed:

news.bbc.co.uk...

1 in 3 people worldwide could be "hit" by "swine flu". From the article, and from the journal "Science":

"A third of the world's population could be infected with swine flu, expert projections suggest.

Researchers say swine flu has "full pandemic potential", spreading readily between people and is likely to go global in the next six to nine months.

Although one in three who come in contact will likely become infected, the Imperial College London team declined to estimate the death toll.

The study based on Mexico's experience is published in the journal Science.

This virus really does have full pandemic potential

Professor Ferguson
The number of laboratory-confirmed swine flu cases has reached 5,251 in some 30 countries around the world, with 61 having died from the disease, the World Health Organization has confirmed.

Working in collaboration with the WHO and public health agencies in Mexico, the researchers assessed the Mexico epidemic using data to the end of April and taking into account factors like international spread and viral genetic diversity.

Lead researcher Professor Neil Ferguson said it was too early to say whether the virus will cause deaths on a massive scale, or prove little more lethal than normal seasonal flu.

His "fast and dirty" analysis of Mexico's swine flu outbreak suggests that the H1N1 virus is about as dangerous as the virus behind a 1957 pandemic that killed 2 million people worldwide.

But it's not nearly as lethal as the bug that caused the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, which caused an estimated 50 million deaths in 1918.

Its full impact on the UK is not likely to be known until the annual flu season in the autumn and winter, when a "really major epidemic" can be expected in the northern hemisphere, says Professor Ferguson.

FROM THE TODAY PROGRAMME

More from Today programme
Prof Ferguson, who sits on the World Health Organisation's emergency committee for the outbreak, told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: "This virus really does have full pandemic potential. It is likely to spread around the world in the next six to nine months and when it does so it will affect about one-third of the world's population.

"To put that into context, normal seasonal flu every year probably affects around 10% of the world's population every year, so we are heading for a flu season which is perhaps three times worse than usual - not allowing for whether this virus is more severe than normal seasonal flu viruses."

His study suggests swine flu could kill four in every 1,000 infected people.

Professor Ferguson said his findings confirmed that decisions must be taken swiftly on vaccine production.

"We really need to be prepared, particularly for the autumn. At the moment, the virus is not spreading fast in the northern hemisphere, because we are outside the normal flu season, but come the autumn it is likely to cause a really major epidemic.

"One of the key decisions which has to be made this week by the world community is how much do we switch over current vaccine production for seasonal flu to make a vaccine against this particular virus? I think those decisions need to be made quickly."

reply posted on 16-5-2009 @ 07:11 AM by detachedindividual

reply to post by soficrow

This is exactly the danger that many people failed to understand when all of this began.

Mass farming is at a stage now where it could easily assist in the mutation of this virus.

The WHO stated previously that we are in a better position than ever before to combat an outbreak. But they fail to take into account that we have H5N1 on one continent, H1N1 spreading rapidly, and we now have global travel and mass pig farming (pigs act as a petri-dish (sp?) to combine viruses) like never before in Human history.

We may have the communication and vaccine development capability, but we are in no way better prepared for this than we were in 1915, because we have improved methods of easy transmission and it's easier for it to spread and mutate.

reply posted on 17-5-2009 @ 01:48 PM by soficrow

reply to post by detachedindividual

Excellent points - and all too true.

...And unfortunately, H1N1 and H5N1 are just the tip of the iceberg. If these two get together AND pick up genetic material from HIV or Ebola...

reply posted on 17-5-2009 @ 02:01 PM by ZeroKnowledge

reply to post by soficrow

I feel that there is very very very very low possibility that virus from one family would get genes from another one in vivo and would still be able to infect people as easily as flu. The whole issue behind flu being wide-spread is its relative low lethality.
Every one of us has viruses in nose that cause cold. They are much more wide spread then flu. So far no hymera with HIV or Ebola.
If such a virus would appear, i personally overnight would be convinced that all the crazy depopulation theories are real and it was a lab beast.

reply posted on 17-5-2009 @ 02:15 PM by soficrow

Originally posted by ZeroKnowledge
reply to post by soficrow

I feel that there is very very very very low possibility that virus from one family would get genes from another one in vivo and would still be able to infect people as easily as flu. The whole issue behind flu being wide-spread is its relative low lethality.

Many new lethal diseases bypass the immune system, and appear to be dormant for a period of time before causing acute symptoms.

Every one of us has viruses in nose that cause cold. They are much more wide spread then flu. So far no hymera with HIV or Ebola.

Good point.

If such a virus would appear, i personally overnight would be convinced that all the crazy depopulation theories are real and it was a lab beast.

Many "lab beasts" are loose in the world - and maybe, positioned to facilitate. ... We have bugs crossing not just species and kingdom barriers but super-kingdom barriers too. Seems to me that anything is possible these days, even without further intervention.

reply posted on 17-5-2009 @ 02:21 PM by FlyersFan

Considering how wide spread this is ... and considering that America now has more cases then Mexico .. and considering that Japan just closed over 500 schools due to swine flu ... and considering ________

WHY THE HECK ARE WE NOT AT A LEVEL 6????

reply posted on 17-5-2009 @ 05:02 PM by CultureD

I hope this post is relevant to this thread-

Josh Lederberg is one of the great epidemiologists- a true warrior against Ebola, AIDS, etc. This is an interesting and important article about the 1918 strain- and its possible "ressurection"- and the dangers of it.

Regardless of whether people believe this is a similar scenario to '18 or not- I think it's an important read, re: background and expectations if the current situation were indeed to in any way mimic the '18 events.:

www.pnas.org...

Also please note this was written in 2001. Virologists have known for some time that this kind of influenza outbreak is something for which we are overdue (overpopulation, fewer resources, war, encroachment on vector environments, etc., all lead to emerging and lethal pandemics).

And yes- in my opinion, it's time to go to Level 6, esp. in light of the explosion in Japan.

C

reply posted on 17-5-2009 @ 05:40 PM by soficrow