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Second wave of flu likely in two months

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posted on May, 15 2009 @ 05:19 PM

Second wave of flu likely in two months
Published: 16/05/2009 at 12:00 AM
(per johnb)

Newspaper section: NewsThailand should prepare for a second wave of the (A) H1N1 influenza, which could occur as early as July, warns a viral expert.

The pattern of the (A) H1N1 outbreak is similar to other flu pandemics such as the Spanish flu in 1918, which killed 20 million people worldwide, said Dr Thirawat Hemachudha, director of the World Health Organisation's Collaborating Centre for Research and Training on Viral Zoonoses.

Scientists say there are four steps which indicate whether the disease can cause a pandemic. They are that it is a new strain of virus, humans can contract it, it is non-seasonal, and the virus can spread quickly and widely.

''The (A) H1N1 flu has already passed the first three steps. We'll just wait and see when the last step explodes. The current situation is like a warning sign, reminding us that the big wave is coming,'' he said.

''According to scientific records, the second wave should happen between two months to two years [after the initial outbreak].''
More at Link...

And here we have another warning of a impending 2nd wave to come...

Many experts are beginning to believe persons infected in the "First Wave", are now weakened and susceptible to secondary/tertiary infections that can take hold easily under such conditions...Pneumonia seems to be the preferred at the present time, but, more/others will arise as this tracks around the world...


[edit on 5/15/2009 by Hx3_1963]

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 06:43 PM
reply to post by Hx3_1963
Mutations make swine flu virus more dangerous than AIDS

And yet more Intel...

Someone seems worried...

[edit on 5/15/2009 by Hx3_1963]

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 07:15 PM
Good find.

I would like to think it is all just hype and trype, but on the other hand the fact that it has been lurking as a thread in the background for several years and the the big public thrust and media presentation.............

Hard to say, I hope that they are wagging the dog or scamming for more money, yet there are many reasons I can see a manufactured virus being released in the near future.

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 07:29 PM
July seems to be a very busy month in the CT world

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 07:34 PM
reply to post by xxpigxx

These "waves" seem to be running 1-2 months behind detection...

We're now peaking in wave 1 after the early/mid April original NA detection and wave 2 is beginning...

At this rate mid June into July should be a lot worse...

I pray not, but, the next 2 weeks might tell the tale, if we see more hospitalizations and deaths...not good...

[edit on 5/15/2009 by Hx3_1963]

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 07:44 PM
Not just with this flu crap.

I mean with EVERYTHING.

It is very strange.

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 08:16 PM
Just thinking out loud here...

Ya know what else is kinda scary?

If they're pretty much cought up from the backlog of samples sent in...

And...they're not testing the general population now...

Then these increasing numbers must be from more serious/hospitalization cases??? Hmmm...

Does that make any sense to Y'all?

Mild U.S. Swine Flu Cases May Exceed Official Tally

The real number of swine flu cases in the United States could be “upwards of 100,000,” a top public health official estimated on Friday — far higher than the official count of 7,415 cases confirmed by laboratories.

The official, Dr. Daniel Jernigan, head of flu epidemiology for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said at a news conference that the official number gave an inaccurate picture of the outbreak because so few mildly sick people were being tested.

He added that flu was more prevalent than usual, “something we would not normally expect at this time of year.” But he emphasized that most cases were mild. There have been only 173 hospitalizations and 5 deaths reported to the disease centers.
More at Link...

[edit on 5/15/2009 by Hx3_1963]

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 09:21 PM
reply to post by Hx3_1963

A New, New H1N1 in Mexico?
May 15, 2009

This odd exchange took place at today’s press conference with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

David Brown, The Washington Post: There’s a report that there is yet another new H1N1 virus that has been found in the states of Durango, Zacatecas, and Jalisco that is distinct from both this swine H1N1 and the seasonal Brisbane H1N1. Have you heard of this and can you tell us anything about this?

Daniel Jernigan, CDC’s deputy director of influenza division: We’ve heard of some reports about that, but I’ve not had any direct information about the specifics of that case. There’s ongoing dialog between us and the folks that are in Mexico, and as we know more about that, we’ll be able to let people know.

ScienceInsider is investigating but has yet to learn anything substantive. It was aired in a public venue, though, and likely will receive media attention, regardless of whether it turns out to be false.

—Jon Cohen

Update (6:44EDT, 15 May): “We heard a rumor but think it may be a misinterpretation of some lab data by a non-lab person,” Nancy Cox, head of CDC’s influenza division, tells ScienceInsider. “We are following up.”

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 09:31 PM
With enough layers of paint, they can turn black to white; they flip-flop their statements like there's no tomorrow...perhaps there isn't.

Personally it's become tiresome to follow. There's been a complete black-out in the UK. I've just stocked up on tinned food, powdered milk and will prepare some kind of ditch-kit, that's as much as i can do.

No needle is going in my arm.

Anyway, i just wanted to express my deepest gratitude Hx3_1963 for your updates. You've done a phenomenal job and you are a true Borg [1963 of 2009]. I hope we meet in the collective concious


posted on May, 15 2009 @ 09:47 PM

Originally posted by Hx3_1963

The pattern of the (A) H1N1 outbreak is similar to other flu pandemics such as the Spanish flu in 1918, which killed 20 million people worldwide, said Dr Thirawat Hemachudha, director of the World Health Organisation's Collaborating Centre for Research and Training on Viral Zoonoses.

Well .. the good doctor is only half right. This is following the same pattern as 1918... but his 20 million dead people count is way off. The estimates are 40-100 million.

[edit on 5/15/2009 by FlyersFan]

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 09:53 PM
reply to post by FlyersFan
Isn't that convenient?

How they can just randomly change numbers and history, in a single thoughtless (probably not) fit what ever they're trying *not* to convey?

Another "Lulling" tactic I'd guess...smaller numbers generate less fear/panic...

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 09:57 PM
Good find and good work. S&F.

The second wave will be the telling one. ...Wonder what particular bugs will get together.

ALSO - have you noticed that the cytokine storm in H1N1 and H5N1 are like a hemoraghic fever? Do you have any immuno-histo-chemistry info for comparison? [I haven't got round to looking yet.]

Thanks, sofi

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 10:00 PM
reply to post by soficrow

Read the book - The Coming Plague - by Laurie Garrett.
I just finished it. It goes into the hemoragic virus' as well as the swine flu.
Absolutely amazing. It'll scare the stuff'n out of ya.

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 10:04 PM
reply to post by soficrow
A good Contributor in this area would be Ecoparity, who's been "Hanging Out" in the:

Swine Flu news and updates thread


He's been on top of a lot of this for awhile now

[edit on 5/15/2009 by Hx3_1963]

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 10:25 PM
The following is my opinion as a member participating in this discussion.

Although the source of outbreak is not clear, some reports have said the (A) H1N1 virus could have leaked from a laboratory during the process of developing new vaccines. OP Source

Just lovely.

Because our benevolent government only plays around with viruses in laboratories for vaccines... :shk: In my personal opinion, while the chance exists for vaccination workers who are truly interested in human benefit to have accidentally released the virus, I can more easily imagine the hubris of a government-contracted individual allowing him not to be careful with what he was developing and letting it loose.

So carelessly handled by so many governments, if only we could be ensured that the Darwin Award would be awarded appropriately. Unfortunately it is the little guy that will suffer.

Fortunately I am in a much better position than I was years ago, but knowing how life was without affordable healthcare provisions, I wouldn't have seen a doctor with these symptoms described, believing I could ride it out. Now transfer that position for an astronomical amount of humans worldwide, and the lack of news information being allowed to go out (which I believe is definitely the case), how many have the potential to die? Thank God for ATS members providing me with the efficient means of staying informed.

Regardless of whether it kills 10 people or 20 million, there was an enormous hole exposed in pandemic defense. To think that is going to be used more than likely for purposes not in the best interest of the populace disgusts me to know end. Vaccines... over my dead body (which is sadly possible.)

As an ATS Staff Member, I will not moderate in threads such as this where I have participated as a member.

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 10:27 PM

Originally posted by FlyersFan

Read the book - The Coming Plague - by Laurie Garrett.
I just finished it. It goes into the hemoragic virus' as well as the swine flu.
Absolutely amazing. It'll scare the stuff'n out of ya.

Okay. Thanks.

FYI - I linked her Newsweek article on H1N1 - it was good, but she did NOT refer to the early (1997-98) cases of triple assortment H1N1 in swine or humans. Seemed to think it all started in mid-2000 as I recall. ...Made me wonder.

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 10:35 PM
From posts a couple of days ago...

Mexico detected a mutation of the H1N1 virus and warns has aggressiveness
May 13 09 - Mexico City

Just when the Mexican Government was attempting to convey an image of calm did what many experts had already predicted, the virus Muto, increasing the possibility of new outbreaks of influenza. Health authorities in Mexico, United States and Canada have found what could be a new version or a mutation of the influenza virus A (H1N1), and not out at the moment that is more aggressive than those currently circulating in the world.

"We have cases where immunofluorescence says is A, but does not tell us what subtype. Today we have cases like this, and this case is United States and Canada have such cases, revealed to the international media director general of the National Center of Epidemiological Surveillance and Disease Control (Cenavece), Miguel Angel Lezana.

The director of Cenavece did not rule out that this new version of the virus is more aggressive than currently circulating. "It is a possibility, the only way to know this is a series of bioassays, and the complete sequence of the gene of the virus, something in which he has been working, 'he explained.

In line, Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said that the mutation of the human influenza virus is larger than that introduced the human immunodeficiency virus that causes AIDS. Cordova also presented the latest report on the evolution of this epidemic and reported that so far are 2446 cases of people who contracted the virus, 60 of whom were killed.
More at Links...

H1N1- Ultimate News on influenza A - bird flu, swine flu & avian flu alerts
H1N1 USA : more than 3000 cases: Swine H1N1 Outpaces Seasonal Flu In the United States

This movement of swine H1N1 into the human population is cause for concern. The increase over seasonal flu may be driven by the avian PB2 gene in the swine isolate. Position 627 is E, which favors growth at the higher body temperature of birds. Seasonal flu has a K at position 627, which allows for more rapid replication at a lower temperature, which is consistent with the internal temperature of a human nose in the winter.

The presence of avian PB2 may offer a selective advantage over the summer, when seasonal flu falls to barely detectable levels. However, the swine H1N1 that moves south in the upcoming months will be growing under colder conditions, which may favor the acquisition of E627K though reassortment or recombination. This change could create a more virulent H1N1 in the fall in the northern hemisphere.

Thus, the swine H1N1 may be launching a two virus strategy. The H1N1 with avian PB2 will dominate in the northern hemisphere over the summer, while the H1N1 in the southern hemisphere will acquire E627K and establish dominance during the winter months.

Thus, the spread of H1N1 is in high gear, as WHO debates if a swine H1N1 is a swine H1N1 and if a pandemic at phase 6 is really at phase 6.

Swine H1N1 doesn't read WHO press releases.

It just gains transmission efficiencies via homologous recombination

I also posted a link to something about "how it all started"...about some Wisconsin/Minnesota farming family that did something with sick pigs and chickens in a barn, but, can't find it at the moment...Hmmm...

[edit on 5/15/2009 by Hx3_1963]

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 10:56 PM
reply to post by Hx3_1963
Hmmm...more *wonderful* news...

Odd late season surge of seasonal flu activity accompanies swine flu surge
1 hour ago

posted on May, 15 2009 @ 11:03 PM

off-topic post removed to prevent thread-drift


posted on May, 16 2009 @ 12:23 AM
A(H1N1) virus expected to mutate and drug resistant

The Path of a Pandemic

From the magazine issue dated May 18, 2009

Around Thanksgiving 2005 a teenage boy helped his brother-in-law butcher 31 pigs at a local Wisconsin slaughterhouse, and a week later the 17-year-old pinned down another pig while it was gutted. In the lead-up to the holidays the boy's family bought a chicken and kept the animal in their home, out of the harsh Sheboygan autumn. On Dec. 7, the teenager came down with the flu, suffering an illness that lasted three days. He visited a local clinic, then fully recovered, and nobody else in his family took ill.
This incident would hardly seem worth mentioning except that the influenza virus that infected the Wisconsin lad was unlike any previously seen. It appeared to be a mosaic of a wild-bird form of flu, a human type and a strain found in pigs.

It was an H1N1 swine influenza. Largely ignored at the time, the Wisconsin virus was a step along the evolutionary tree, leading to a virus that four years later would stun the world.
Flash-forward to April 2009, and young Édgar Enrique Hernández in faraway La Gloria, Mexico, suffers a bout of flu, found to be caused by a similar mosaic of swine/bird/human flu, also H1N1. And thousands of miles away in Cairo, the Egyptian government decides pigs are the source of disease, and orders 300,000 animals in the predominantly Muslim (therefore not pork-consuming) society slaughtered.

Each of these three incidents is related to the unfolding influenza crisis. It is the manner of human beings to seek blame during times of fear. Fingers are now pointing, either at the entire pig species Sus domestica, or at the nation of Mexico. Such exercises in blame are not only scientifically ill founded, ut are likely to prompt government actions that, at the very least, are useless and, at worst, harmful for efforts to control a pandemic.
More at Link...

[edit on 5/16/2009 by Hx3_1963]

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