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China may grow old before it gets rich

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posted on Apr, 27 2004 @ 01:02 PM
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Title
China may grow old before it gets rich, new study warns

URL
www.smh.com.au...

Abstract
Faced with a population ageing at an unprecedented rate, China has been warned it may grow old before it has a chance of reaching widespread prosperity.

"Today's great powers became affluent before they became ageing societies," say the US demographers Richard Jackson and Neil Howe in a new study. "China may be the first major country to grow old before it grows rich."

The proportion of over-60s in the population will rise from the current 11 per cent to 28 per cent - and possibly even as high as 32 per cent - by 2040, the year when communist leaders are confident that fast growth will have brought China close to challenging the economic power and strategic size of the United States.

My Opinion
In some ways Chinese citizens will fare no better than the no-independently-wealthy American citizens. The article states that social security in China is a sham and most deposits into the fund are used for other purposes. Who says our two governments aren't that similar???

The interesting problem is that Chinese elders are reliant upon their children to take care of them. That, from what I understand, is Chinese custom. The higher lifespan of humans combined with the forced one-child requirement in China since the late 19070s means that nowadays, the child has to take care of the parents and the grandparents. This is further compounded by the fact that female fetuses were usually aborted as couples were striving to have a son. As the article states, females are the primary caregiviers to the edlerly - they will soon be in short supply.

I can see our agencies trying to jump on this angle somehow to ensure that China does not grow richer first.

Thoughts?




posted on Apr, 27 2004 @ 01:10 PM
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Hmmm.... this would be absolutely devastating to the newly-growing economy. The problem is similiar in canada, where our liespan is beginning to reach ridiculous lengths.

However, this reeks of plot. China was jsut beginning to dig itself out of its commie-hole.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

It's it western technology and medical techniques that are advancing the lifespan of the chinese?

DE



posted on Apr, 27 2004 @ 01:35 PM
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The Peoples Republic of China has had a single child per family policy for several decades . This policy will cause there to be fewer young people as a percentage of the population. Therefore more old people as a percentage of the population.Not really a conspirousy as much as a draconian solution to overpopulation.



posted on Apr, 27 2004 @ 01:41 PM
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Right, rcalligan. However the solution becomes the problem when there is noone left to work. What about India -- don't they appear to be following the same road in a sense?



posted on Apr, 27 2004 @ 02:05 PM
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No, this is a Worldwide problem. It's called overpopulation meets technolgy. This is happening in the USA too. Birth control and family planning juxiposed with the longer lifespans due to technolgy combine to eat at the ratio of old to young from both ends.



posted on Apr, 27 2004 @ 02:25 PM
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Originally posted by Ambient Sound
No, this is a Worldwide problem. It's called overpopulation meets technolgy. This is happening in the USA too. Birth control and family planning juxiposed with the longer lifespans due to technolgy combine to eat at the ratio of old to young from both ends.



Well said ambientsound. One way to eliminate this problem in American is to eliminate welfare and government subsidies for reproducing as much as possible. But, that's considerably off-topic and has been discussed here before.



posted on Apr, 27 2004 @ 07:59 PM
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Bringing this back up top for more feedback. I am interested in the intel perspective. Does anyone find an interesting angle in this story for foreign intel agencies to help this possible situation happen in China? I am referring to the study's finding that China may age too much before it becomes a rich country which is contrary to how most countries progress.





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