Quite logical and predictable.

Where is the upside for the Arabs to cooperate?

In a word - "None".

J

"Those who have the gold write the rules".

crap..... the arabs are not going to help us, we got in it so we are stuck with it and this entire thing that all the phony money was printed for was and will do nothing except slow it all down... still gonna crash , crap and burn.

Arabs have nothing to gain so basically they are gonna do nothing... this is mainly our mess.

Well...it could be argued that the Arab nations have massive dollar holdings and investments (like the Chinese and Japanese), and thus have an interest in protecting these holdings and the system that supports their value.

I acknowledge its a weak argument, though, because the Arab nations have OIL and oil will always have value, whether its priced in dollars, euros, gold, Ameros, or New World Order tokens of credit. If the current system goes down, Japan, for example, will see massive losses on its dollar holdings and it will be hard for it to find a market to replace the US. The OPEC nations will always have people lined up at the door begging to buy, however.

You might also make the argument that the regimes in control of the Arab nations benefit from implicit US military support...that is to say, the Saudi Royal family enjoys the backing of the US military. The royals are increasingly disliked in their own nations and there is a strong posssibility that without US muscle behind them, the House of Saud and other regimes in the area could be swept away by popular or military revolt. This is a slightly stronger argument.

The question remains as to how this balance of needs plays out. Looks like the US role in the equation is slipping for sure. If the Saudis and other OPEC types let the dollar go into freefall, watch out, the Chinese and Japanese will have to sell off too, and then its truly a global collapse. The OPEC nations are the ones to watch, the canaries in the coal mine as it were, because, being oil-rich, they have less to lose than the Chinese and the Japanese if the dollar goes south.

They have everything to lose actually. They based all their spending off the price of oil and have gained their money from our consumption of it in the US. If they no longer have a product to export they they lose all their money and power very fast.

Lindsay Williams say something along these lines and its a smart theory IMO.

Originally posted by whoshotJR
They have everything to lose actually. They based all their spending off the price of oil and have gained their money from our consumption of it in the US. If they no longer have a product to export they they lose all their money and power very fast.

Lindsay Williams say something along these lines and its a smart theory IMO.

Are you claiming that if the US was laid low economically there would be no market for oil?

There is no reason falling US oil demand couldn't be replaced by rising standards of living in the BRICs (Brazil-Russia-India-China) nations. They don't even have to make it anywhere near the US standard of living to deliver the same level of demand, due to their burgeoning industrial sectors and massive populations.

The US ain't irreplacable.

Too many factors here to do more than guess what's happening.

Of course the US goes to the Saudis for help. It is part of the arrangement since 1945. The Saudi Royal family are kept in power unthreatened and the US gets oil form them at a premium rate.

But the assumption was the US would always be strong financially. Now they're on the verge of bankruptcy, though still the military goliath they've always been.

The Saudi's may play games with Obama, make him jump through hoops. First they'll tell him to gut Israel, just for spite. They they'll want Iran castrated.

They may be thinking they can give him a nominal financial guarantee and string him along while they arrange something long term with the Chinese - which may have happened already. But the Saudi know the Chinese may not give the same respect for terms the US has, and decide they don't need a useless royal family in place.

It's not game over yet and there is still manoeuvering on all sides. The US will not disappear off the map, just become chastised economically as Germany, France, England were after WWII.

But then again, it seems in the works that Russia and China together are warming up for a real pull down of the US as the superpower of the world.

The Fahd family is primarily concerned about saving their asses and being in power without problems. A lot depends on where they think things are going.

There is the possibility a radical realignment of the Gulf states will come out of the current impasse. The Arabs and Iran have had control of most of the oil reserves for the better part of a century. They are weak militarily, with corrupt counterproductive leaderships more concerned with tribal religious disputes than progressiveness.

Huge resources but weak politically the region is just begging to be colonially carved up by the major powers. Say the US takes control of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Emirates, and other Sunni nations. Russia or China get Iran, Syria, and the Shiite contingency of the region.

Sound like a fantasy? It's been thought about for a long time. A major Gulf War. Pakistan's instability and the fact that their nukes have to be kept secured may be the tipping point.

Besieged from all sides, Israel has been prepared for something like this for a long time.

The ball is in the Saudi's court.


Mike


[edit on 11-5-2009 by mmiichael]