Update and Projections - H1N1 Real data of the Swine Flu

H1N1 Swine Update and Projections

Source: World Health Organization - www.who.int...

Mortality Rate

- Confirmed Data -

5/1/09 – 331 Cases; 10 Deaths = data estimated 3.02% mortality rate

4/30/09 – 257 Cases; 8 Deaths = data estimated 3.11% mortality rate

4/29/09 - 148 Cases; 8 Deaths = data estimated 5.4% mortality rate

4/28/09 - 105 Cases; 7 Deaths = data estimated 6.6% mortality rate

4/27/09 - 73 Cases; 7 Deaths = data estimated 9.6% mortality rate

Average 5.6%

Summary: As data is collected an confirmed, mortality rate is decreasing. Rate of decrease is slowing. Projections based on current data suggest mortality rate should level at 2.75% to 2.9% with a high degree of confidence. Data should move toward this expectation as collected data continues be confirmed.

Infection Growth Rate

4/28/09 – 1.43%
4/29/09 – 1.41%
4/30/09 – 1.73%
5/01/09 – 1.29%

Average Infection Growth Rate – 1.46%

Southern hemisphere at greater risk moving into fall/winter with higher infection rate possible

Northern hemisphere at lesser risk moving into spring summer with lesser infection rate possible.

However, given the virus manifested in spring/summer conditions and is exhibiting a infection growth rate of 1.46% in these conditions, 1.46% may be the low with the expectations of a much higher rate in fall/winter for both hemispheres.

Summary: Immunity to H1N1 in the general population in non-existant. Exposure is likely to yield infection thereby producing the demonstrated 1.46% infection growth rate.

Infection will continue until population is dead or immune. Growth will continue to increase exponentially in populations of little to no immunity. All human population is at risk.

Comparision to Common Flu

Up to 500,000 deaths are attributed to common flu worldwide. This usually impacts the weak, children, elderly, already unhealthy/malnourished.

H1N1 Swine/Mexican flu is more likely to cause death in the healthy, igniting a cytokine storm/overun in those that have a well functioning immune system as the cause of death. This is a critical difference when compared to the common flu and is actually more similar to the 1918 pandemic.

On average there are tens of millions of cases of flu that occur globally, much of which is unreported. Because the global population has built up immunities in respect to many strains of the common flu the growth rate is typically much less than what the H1N1 Swine/Mexican virus has demonstrated. This is why the H1N1 Swine/Mexican virus has the ability to spread so quickly, as there are many more potential infectees. The mortality rates also differ significantly, the common flu is less than .5%, where as the H1N1 Swine flu appears to be between 2.75% and 3%.

Should this pandemic realize its full potential, then healthcare is likely to max out in days or weeks. This would amplify the normal mortality rate to perhaps 5%.

Now that the above has been reviewed, which is supported by current and historical confirmed data, we can build mathematical expectations.

Hard numbers and projections, below.

5/1/09
# of infected to date =331
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 2
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 3
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 7
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 10
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 17

Notice in the above that a 3% mortality rate places us in the neighborhood of the amount of deaths we have witnessed globally to date.

5/8/09
# of infected to date =4,681
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 23
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 47
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 94
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 140
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 342

5/15/09
# of infected to date = 66,186
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 331
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 662
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 1,324
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 1,986
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 4,832

5/22/09
# of infected to date = 935,918
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 4,680
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 9,359
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 18,718
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 28,078
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 46,796

At this stage, healthcare should be breaking down, even in wealthy countries. A 5% mortality after this point may not be unrealistic.

5/29/09
# of infected to date = 13,234,513
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 66,173
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 132,345
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 264,690
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 397,035
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 661,726

6/13/09
# of infected to date = 3,863,676,821
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 19,318,384
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 38,636,768
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 77,273,536
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 115,910,305
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 193,183,841

At this point, one half of the world’s population has been exposed and infected. If this virus yielded the same mortality rate as the common flu, we would likely expect over 19 million deaths worldwide. If the current mortality rate continues with the current growth rate, then by June 13 we could witness 115 million deaths just 6 days later. If healthcare collapse, panic, and social unrest occur, then 193 million is the catastrophic reality.

At this point the growth rate would like slow down as more of the population would be immune and therefore unable to be a viral load carrier, however, deaths would still occur after this point. Of course, by now the fragile global economy will have already collapsed.

The critical difference between the Swine flu and the common flu is in two critical characteristics, growth rate and mortality rate. The rest is just math based on evidence to date. If the confirmed cases do not change to improve the numbers, then examine the above again.




[edit on 3/5/2009 by Mexican against NAU]

Am I the only fool here? Seems none are interested in this virus from outside ats. Even those who have some sense of the truth what ever tha may be simply do not care and laugh at any that seem to feel this is worthy of consideration.

Something is wrong here, something very wicked and wrong is going on.

The numbers are not what matters, what does matter is how people are reacting to this disease. Is that part of the infection?

reply to post by antar

I think the government, through the MSM and Homeland Security have all but blown the "ALL CLEAR" whistle, and for many, if it's not on the evening news, they don't have a clue.

reply to post by antar


The POLITICAL CRISIS has started.

I think that the ECONOMIC CRISIS that started in Wall Street and Banks, led to a COMMERCIAL CRISIS, where businesses started to fail in large numbers.

The POLITICAL CRISIS is when people stop having hope that a politician, (a swine) from any political party, will come to their rescue.

That will, in turn - maybe even now as we speak - will create a SOCIAL CRISIS, when people will stop believing that social institutions are of any value and that they´re there to benefit society at large.

The NOTHING happens stance will lead only to more trouble, I think.

The 1918 Flu, when it first came out was mild. Then people started traveling again and it mutated into a killer.

Most likely this might happen.

Said it before and Ill say it again, the numbers are useless. Once the people around you start getting infected and they tell you the tests were negative youll understand. Im in Texas and seeing this first hand. If they wouldnt have gotten help theyd have died but they dont have h1n1. Its either already mutating or recombining. Either way the tests do not work anymore. Which is exactly why Mexicos death count is all messed up. Far far more people died in Mexico then we are ever going to know now.

I am from mississippi and Friday I went to the doctor in pretty bad shape, couldn't even drive myself. Fever,headache, vomiting,and confusion is what made my mother decide to take me into the ER. I was told i had the stomach flu and sent home. NO TESTS were given what so ever!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I as well as my mom both believe there was more to it.

reply to post by dooper


People are in the parks. Same happenned in México a few days back, and still continues.

People want to cure their stress by taking a mini-vacation.

Meanwhile, war is being readied.

I feel like I am talking to myself here, but in examining the posts, I suspect that my timeline is way too conservative. Actual cases verses confimred cases is the variable.

In reality, we are more likely somewhere in between 5/8 and 5/16 in reality.

We have days at best before this blows up in panic.

Im with you Im not doubting you. Im saying your values are far to conservative. Now youre seeing other people say the same as me, my friend was told she had a viral infection. Thats it. They arent bothering to test everyone and most of the time the Dr's dont want to get into it. She says they tested her for h1n1 and it came back neg. Sometimes I wonder if they are even bothering to test. I mean I dont think 48 hrs was a long enough time frame to get the results from the CDC when they are thousands and thousands of cases behind.

reply to post by Mexican against NAU

dictionary.reference.com...

Looking at these numbers I can't help but think that the reason there is so much talk about the "normal flu killing 30,000 a year" is a way to control when people get afraid.

As I've stated before I don't see many people acting scared at all. Everyone is going about their normal lives, just making jokes about mexico or pigs. They just assume the media is blowing things out of proportion. And everyone seems to bring up this 30,000 number regarding the seasonal flu.

It is possible that TPTB are trying to by some time until May when people will hear numbers approaching 30,000 and -start- to panic a little. Then the real debates will start and real questions will be asked and all the vaccines will be prepared and then God save us come winter.

Have you had the chance to update the #'s with the most recent published #'s?

[edit on 5-5-2009 by Finalized]

reply to post by antar


I noticed that also, life most go on flu pandemic or not, after all people are doing what they do when the regular flu season is in full gear, rest, go to the doctor and go back to work as soon as possible.

Here in my neck of the woods the first 3 cases of confirmed swine flu are in, they are all doing well and about 150 state wide are been tested, still not deaths in my state yet.

Doctors are telling people that so far the strain is mild and that people will recuperate if this trend stays.

So why to worry right now? I guess when people start falling like flies then people will actually start running.

But from the initial panic to the way the virus has run its course things seems to be just like the way they are during regular flu season.

No school closings in my county but one school was close on the county where one of the three cases was found.

It looks like there is another virus out there. They did not test my child but tested for strep throat and then said he did not have it but gave an antibiotic called Cefdinir (maybe look it up). The nurse practioner said it was probably a sinus infection. But I've been sick and the nurs practioner said it was a virus.
Like a stomach virus and gave me hyomax.
But my symptoms went from low grade fever, headache neck ache vomiting upset stomach too then over the weekend lots of sneezing and runny stuffy nose to just feeling sick. To today sleeping forever and still feel like I am fighting something off.
The nurse said she was really mad at the mainstream media for over blowing the swine flu.
In the spring we do have allergies here and in the spring kids do get sinus infections and colds.
They gave my son that Cefdinir and mucenix.
I did look up the Cefinir and it did help me see where they were going with the diagnosis.
All I know is it has been very strange to be sick while there is talk of swine flu.
I wish they would have tested for it but they did not.
Also my dr had prev. called in tamiflu just to have on hand. Our fevers never went above 101 or 102 or not controlled by tylenol or motrin so I never took it. I talked to a pharmacist 2 of them that said don't take it yet. The Dr never said to take it either. The office just seemed mad that everyone get scared.
I think it was how they were dealing with the possible crisis they could or still could have.
I've kept up with all these posts on this topic so thanks for keeping it updated.
We live in the south and there are cases of viruses going around and some cases of swine flu.
I never had that achy feeling though and the chills one gets so I don't think I had it.
Don't worry to much...guys.

reply to post by Finalized


May 5th, 2009
Navy cancels deployment of ship, cites flu concerns
Posted: 04:37 PM ET
From Barbara Starr and Mike Mount
CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) - The U.S. Navy has canceled the deployment of one of its ships because of a number of possible cases of swine flu, Navy officials said Tuesday.

The USS Dubuque, an amphibious transport dock ship, was due to deploy on June 1 to the South Pacific on a humanitarian mission, according to Cmdr. Joseph Surette, a Navy spokesman.

He said there was one confirmed case of H1N1 virus and 49 possible other cases among crew members over the past several days. The 50 crew members are off the ship recovering and being given Tamiflu medication, Surette said. The ship is being scrubbed and disinfected, and the remaining 370 crew members are being given Tamiflu as a precaution, according to Surette.

Officials said there are no other cases of the H1N1 virus on any other Navy ships, though at total of five total sailors throughout the Navy have been confirmed as contracting the virus.

cnnwire.blogs.cnn.com...

reply to post by Finalized


Actual numbers seem right on with the numbers I have published.

I´ll wait until May 8th to compare the actual numbers with my mathematical projections...

I hardly think this is over.

I am worried about a war started by Israel and a religious figure being assassinated to blame it on Iran to start a War while this pandemic grows...

[edit on 5/5/2009 by Mexican against NAU]

Flu Update

Latest numbers:



Date Est. Mortality Cases Total % Case Change

May 6 2.45% 1516 + 34.8%
May 5 2.97% 1124 + 14.1%
May 4 3.19 985 + 60.1%
May 2 2.974% 615 + 85/8%
May 1 3.77% 331

Mortality Rate: 3.19%