The Mysteriously Shrinking Swine Flu Death Toll, page 2
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reply posted on 3-5-2009 @ 02:20 PM by finemanm
reply to post by Memysabu



They don't get it. If this thing become a real pandemic, we will be talking about 2 million dead americans, not 36,000. If the mortality rate of this virus is exactly like the spanish flu of 1918, .645 % (less than one percent), then 2,000,000 million Americans die. Over a hundred million people all over the world.


reply posted on 3-5-2009 @ 06:03 PM by Cyberbian
reply to post by finemanm



No, you greatly underestimate. If you use the confirmed numbers for Mexico, 400 infected, 19 dead, you get a 5% death rate.

If you use the suspected numbers, it could go as high as 20% death rate in Mexico.

At 5% that would be 15.3 Million Americans dead.


reply posted on 3-5-2009 @ 07:00 PM by Jim Scott
reply to post by finemanm


Just looked at the disease map at flutracker.rhizalabs.com.... Southwest of Mexico City shows a location with 800 suspected infected and 57 deaths, about 7%, like the spanish flu. If this is going to be the norm in the future of the US, that means of the 300 million residents, 21 million deaths. I doubt it would go worldwide for all populations, but if it did: 420 million deaths. Still not enough to lower the population to 500 million, the desired number by the stone monument in Georgia.

[edit on 3-5-2009 by Jim Scott]


reply posted on 3-5-2009 @ 07:35 PM by Cyberbian
reply to post by Jim Scott



The 1918 Spanish flu killed 3% of the infected, and infected 1/3 of the population. So 1% of population was killed.

I suspect they seriously underestimated the number of infected in Mexico.

An interesting aspect of the difference in this current Mexican flu and seasonal flu is that the .6% who die of seasonal flu die of pneumonia 4 to 6 weeks later.

The ones who die of the Mexican flu take a turn for the worse after about 3 days of showing symptoms, and die of pneumonia rather quickly.

With the Spanish flu the first wave was mild, the second wave in the fall was the killer.


reply posted on 4-5-2009 @ 04:52 AM by Cyberbian
reply to post by reugen



At this point, the count is based on tests which are backed up because they cannot process them fast enough. They have stopped testing mild suspected cases.

Now they are only testing severe cases.

The statistics are basically bogus. The only number which will mean anything from this point on is the death toll.

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