THIS IS WRONG, NOT PRECISELY AN EXPONENTIAL BEHAVIOR!

Originally posted by Jim11
reply to post by Mexican against NAU

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In Mexico confirmed deaths are only 15.
The virus is not "very" lethal.
And this is not, precisely, an exponential behavior.

You don't say 40 infected will precisely infect 40, each one.
40*40= 1600
Instead 40 give it to, let's say 3 each.
40*3=120
One out of those 120 won't infect 120 people.

Although the virus could rapidly spread, most people, are in fact, not dying from it.

Originally posted by Jim11
reply to post by Mexican against NAU

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And again, it is not exponential, when you have 2,999 infected, let's say I'm one of those... I won't infect 2,999 people myself!

Originally posted by kawz1
reply to post by Mexican against NAU

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Your "math", although well intended, is a twisting of statistics. You are using the growth rate of the first few days to project the overall rate. This is misleading. Don't get me wrong, I think there is quite a good chance that this virus is man made and potentially just as lethal and contagious as my worst fears suggest, but it is too early to say. Preparation would be the best option, but your "math" misleads and will cause some to panic.

It's like this, the opening day of a movie is always huge, but you can't use the tally from the first weekend to project the total box office gross after 3 months. Your sample size is too small and there are a number of outside factors to consider.