Originally posted by FredT
As I noted in another thread also many hospitals are not able to test for the virus to that detail. They can do a Influenza A/B test but not specific
as to what it is so it has to be sent out out to a location that does it. That can take days and those centers that do do it are inundated now hence
the lag.
Based on personal observation, I believe they are reporting cases at the following levels:
'suspect' = patient's symptoms coincide with CDC's symptom guidelines, Swine Flu cannot be ruled out.
'probable' = patient tested positive for Influenza A, so given the current infectious epidemic it is most likely Swine Flu, test sent to WHO lab for
official H1N1 testing
'confirmed' = Positive H1N1 test from CDC, or WHO, laboratory
(Everything above and below are personal accounts, observations, opinions and mostly memory. These threads are moving faster than the virus, and I
want others, especially those in the medical field - FREDT
- to chime in.)
Doctors are required to report infectious, possible epidemic cases per CDC guidelines. Most of the flu testing will be off-site, usually a University
or larger metropolitan hospital. So, once it leaves the Dr. Office or other medical office, the sample is now a 'suspected' case which is required
to be reported to CDC. I worry that many physicians will simply prescribe anti-viral, without sending for lab work or going through the CDC
guidelines. How many went unreported, only a week ago?
I believe there are only four labs labs worldwide, two in the U.S., that are testing for the H1N1. Can you imagine how backed up they are? I'm sure
the suspected cases in areas that are already confirmed, like Mexico) are pushed to the side and the cases coming in from new areas are taking
priority. They'll probably focus on samples coming in that will update them on where the virus has spread, suspected deaths, it's generation, and
how it's changing or mutating. So, we may not hear anything other than, "we have __ number of new suspected cases" or "__ number of probable
cases" for certain areas.
This may be what we are seeing in Mexico, not that the virus is running it's course but that it's not longer precedent in the WHO labs. That is
unless, it shows signs of later generational (3rd, 4th, etc) or signs of mutation.
I'm doing some searching back through old H5N1 notes now and will post more later, but I think I know the reason for worldwide hysteria in
governments and disease laboratories.
Strictly by memory (reason for my going back through notes): I believe the 'Bird Flu' (H5N1) caused such a ruckus because of it's mortality rate.
Was it 90%, or something like that? Well, the thing saving us from it's wrath on humankind, was that it was not easily transmissible to humans. If
a human caught it, it died off with its host. The scare was based on the possibility of H5N1 mutating with a human virus (or swine) that is highly
contagious and spreads rapidly, like TB.
I also think that why the Dr's who originally tested the H1N1 were so perplexed and made comments referring to its possibility of being
bio-engineered. A swine/human/bird virus? Just out of nowhere? We were scared of a bird/human virus!
Anyway, stick with me...
What if the REAL fear is this mutating with the H5N1? Are they closing schools, and other misc., to slow it's spread, not necessarily to contain it,
while they work on a vaccine?
If it does mutate with H5N1, will it be as viral and highly contagious as H1N1 with the mortality rate of the H5N1?
Given this theory, wouldn't it be an advantage to be exposed to this current swine virus? Would exposure, with full recovery,to the H1N1 virus
increase our chance of survival; if or when it mutates with the H5N1.
[edit on 30-4-2009 by SourGrapes]
, I am so sorry, antar! My thoughts are with you, and your family. I'm sending good vibes for your reservoir, or energy pool! 
