Tamiflu Maufacturing Predicted a 531% Sales Increase in 2009 !!

The following is from the Annual Report from 2008 ,

on page 3 it shows predicted growth of 531%,

What could they have done to know of this pending need in 2009.

Page 3 is a interesting read www.chugai-pharm.co.jp...

This definitly smells of pre-planning to me

USE THE PAGE ENLARGER < TOP MIDDLE

[edit on 29-4-2009 by Seany]
Mod Edit: All Caps – Please Review This Link.

[edit on 30 Apr 09 by Gools]

This is too big a story to be lost amongst breeding reptiles

How did this company realize the need for a 531% increase of a vaccine !

reply to post by Seany


Because they engineered the virus themselves perhaps? It's very easy to make a profit when you have a good for sale that is perfectly inelastic in terms of its demand. What other conclusions could we possibly draw from this? Are they colluding with some biotechnology corporation to produce a vaccine for an engineered supervirus? Did they have information regarding a potential virus outbreak?

[edit on 29-4-2009 by cognoscente]

ROFL

six flags and no comments , weirdness

This will be bumped 1 last time, The conspiracy is real

reply to post by cognoscente


If they didnt engineer the disease , still a boatload to make to

engineer the cure, if you can corner the market in ADVANCE

reply to post by Seany


It would be interesting if you could dig up the 2007 report to compare projections.

Originally posted by schrodingers dog
reply to post by Seany

 

It would be interesting if you could dig up the 2007 report to compare projections.

Ill look for it, I hope I can find it before my EDIT button wears out , lol

No luck trying to find the annual report and tbh, the response to thread dictates no real desire to put myself out , its a non-issue

reply to post by Seany


Don't worry about the response Seany ...

People are reading your thread and flagging it, that means they appreciate the information.

They claim it is

due to expected resumption of government
stockpiling in FY2009 and the ongoing recovery
of the prescription rate for seasonal influenza.

-E-

Believe it?

Well, if you go to their financial statements page (www.chugai-pharm.co.jp...), you'll find a bunch of PDFs with lots of info.

Doing a quick read through the Full Year Results (Jan 07-Dec 07) linked PDF, on page 3, it says, "Projections assume intermediate-scale flu outbreaks in the 2007/2008 and 2008/2009 season. These definitions are based on the average extent of outbreaks over the previous 10 years."

So, to me, if they had knowledge of the outbreak in 2009, they didn't know until very early 2009.

This was also inside the document; Acknowledgment of a partnership with Roche.

"Since our strategic alliance with Roche in 2002, we have acquired a rich development pipeline centering on the oncology field."

So I started searching and saw Roche decided to up their stake in this company less than a year ago: LINK

Roche is trying to boost its stake in Japanese partner Chugai Pharmaceutical to 59.9 percent from its current 50.1 percent.

So there's no guarantee the call to increase tamiflu production 500% came from within that company; It could have come as a hat tip from someone inside Roche... But I ain't got no proof.


It's interesting that their Mid-Term business plan is called "Sunrise 2012" though.

The link in th op works for me to get the pdf, and the prediction is 513%. citing the resumption of government stockpiling, which of course would be needed if they were able to sell down the existing stockpile.

This is along the lines of a thread I started Here regarding the governments urgency to get tamiflu to the states source even though tamiflu does not protect from swine flu and a vaccine will not be ready until fall sourcec

So, the only one who benefits from the urgent rush to make sure the masses get plenty of tamiflu is the makers of tamiflu.

@AlienChaser - While I suspect this pandemic of nerfarious origin, and and am very glad for this thread (S&F!) it does seem that the medical community is reporting that this new 'swine flu' is responsive to both Tamiflu and Relenza.

How long that will be the case is another question entirely.

Link to Bloomberg "Surviving Avain Flu Q&A"

reply to post by beaverg

So there's no guarantee the call to increase tamiflu production 500% came from within that company; It could have come as a hat tip from someone inside Roche... But I ain't got no proof.

You don't need proof when you have a very good point. Critical thinking is still alive on ATS, and this is a very pausable. an interesting connection that will make a few people some serious money.

It's interesting that their Mid-Term business plan is called "Sunrise 2012" though.

Yes it is.
I won't drift to far here, but I find it very interesting that those four digits come up so very often lately, and in that same order too.

It's another topic...Isn't it??

reply to post by IrvingTheExplainer


excellent links. I'm looking at their excel sheets for 2009 and their Tamiflu sales is just bonkers. In 2006 and 2007 they had more than 38 billion yen in Tamiflu sales but in 2008 it's marked at 8 billion yen. Then 2009 starts and their sales are off the charts, government stockpiles are up more than 7000%.

I wonder if it's a 500% increase on the decreased production or not*

[edit on 29-4-2009 by beaverg]

I'll admit, I am curious to know the mechanics of why a company would predict such a jump in sales for these flu meds.
Sounds to me like Tamiflu and Relenza might just be the replacement drug of choice for the common flu bug? What is/was the previous med of choice, I wonder? (googles it)
About.com's reply

Flu Treatments The flu, like the common cold, is caused by a virus, so antibiotics don't work against it. However, there are many antiviral medications that can be used to treat the flu and may help your child to get better a few days faster. In general, they are only effective if started within 1-2 days of your child's symptoms beginning. Flu medications include:
* Relenza (Zanamivir) - a Diskhaler that is given by inhalation to children over the age of seven years. It is effective against Influenza type A and B.
* Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) - available as a capsule or oral suspension and can be used as a flu treatment and prevention in children over the age of 1 years and adults. It is effective against Influenza type A and B.
* Symmetrel (Amantadine) - an older medication that is only effective against Influenza type A and can be used to prevent and treat the flu in children over 12 months of age
* Flumadine (Rimantadine) - also only effective against type A Influenza and it is only approved for use to prevent the flu in children under 10 years, and not as a flu treatment. Because of problems with resistance, the CDC recommends that doctors not prescribe amantadine and rimantadine to prevent or treat flu any longer.

So, Relenza and Tamiflu it is, but this doesn't explain why just a huge jump in the quantity unless they had to wait multiple years for the present stockpile to be used...in which case it would.

I know an oncology nurse who used to work for Genentech and when we passed the Roche Winery in Napa, she mentioned they'd bought Genentech or were in the process, so I googled it:
Link

In a phone interview, Roche Chairman Franz Humer said the deal would create "the best health-care company in the world," with the largest resources in biotech research. "I don't think we do have a competitor now that can compete on a global scale with what we have."

Is it just good smart business, I wonder?
I really really really hope there isn't the kind of nefarious conspiracy that some of us fear as we read into this kinda stuff.
That would be a bit closer to the plot of a show I like to watch called Fringe for my liking.

reply to post by TheWayISeeIt

@AlienChaser - While I suspect this pandemic of nerfarious origin, and and am very glad for this thread (S&F!) it does seem that the medical community is reporting that this new 'swine flu' is responsive to both Tamiflu and Relenza.

From your own link.

Q: Is there a vaccine against the swine flu from Mexico?
A: Flu vaccines generally contain a dead or weakened form of a circulating virus. The vaccine prepares the body’s immune system to fend off a true infection. For the vaccine to work, it must match the circulating, “wild-type” virus relatively closely. There is no vaccine currently that exactly matches the swine flu. The seasonal flu vaccine doesn’t appear effective against swine flu, said Richard Besser, acting head of the CDC.

Bloomberg

And these

Q. Is there a vaccine?

A. No vaccine exists to protect humans from the current swine flu, but the federal government is taking initial steps to prepare for potential production of a swine flu vaccine. The seasonal flu vaccine available this year is not believed to be effective at warding off swine flu, and it's unlikely that people vaccinated against the 1976 swine flu strain are protected against this new strain.

The Boston Globe

Canada's top lab in Winnipeg tested 225 A/H1N1 influenza "isolates" for Tamiflu resistance and all of them were resistant to the drug because of the virus's capacity to mutate. Tests in British Columbia also showed the A/H1N1 flu was resistant to Tamiflu. Tests in the U.S. have also come to similar conclusions

Vancouver Sun

I found it interesting that the positive outlook for Tamiflu comes from places like TradingMarkets.com and are accompanied with disclaimers stating that the endorsement is not meant to be a "buy signal" to investors.

Follow the money, Tamiflu is crap, pushed by big pharma and their well paid wheel greasers who convince the government to push it on the public. I've never had it, and I never will. And I'll be fine.

reply to post by AlienChaser


we all will be fine, till your dead

there will be deaths folks, this thing will last for months

reply to post by cognoscente


Oh wait now, tamiflu is not the only product on the market and the market is increasing. I dont know how their projections are made but 531% growth due to a growing demand (natural) and a larger market share do not correlate to a a/h1n1 pandemic, if they know that in advance the sales projection would have been 20000% or something like that. Plus the fact, we dont know how much CDC/ECDC and similar want to stockpile for future use, but the makers of Tamiflu and other producers have a constant dialgoue with them.