BUT 9 out of 10 who die from common flu are people over 60 who had another illness that adds up to c

BUT 9 out of 10 who die from common flu are people over 60 who had another illness that adds up to common flu

But you're missing something... 9 out of 10 deaths from normal flu happen to people over 60, who had in many cases another illness, adding up to a weak immune system.
At the time the spanish flu pandemic started people were also dying from common flu, however the death rates increased and added up to common flu. We should consider that this new strain is in its infancy. It took around 3 years for the Spanish flu to claim as some experts estimate over 100 million death.. and charts to show a clear increase in death rates globally.

Now the new strain, in Mexico is not killing people over 60 but people between 20 and 40 aprox., affecting the active population, not the elder and thus the economy.

I read that about common flu and thought as you do, that there was too much hype around swine flu, but reconsidering... it seems logical to expect more from this new strain, it just started and pandemics are common in history.The people who could die on higher rates will not be the elder but active people. Then the problem further develops... as the number of sick people begins to increase adding to common flu and vaccines and medicines become scarce.

Besides estimating the number of death from this new strain...

There were around 1.8 billbion people in 1918 and around 100 million died...
How much could that last number be in 2011, taking into consideration airplanes and the more rapid spread of the disease?

That's why we should take precautions.

The Spanish flu of 1918 was notable for not only its lethal nature but specifically because it hit primarily the healthiest parts of the population, 20 to 40... which this seems to be doing as well. NOT the youngest, oldest and weakest.

reply to post by Jim11


The more extreme strains of viruses tend to exhaust themselves and dissipate in waves is because they are too deadly... You have to think of it in terms of what the virus is "thinking." It's in a virus' best interest to keep the host alive for as long as possible, because the only way it can replicate itself and spread is through the host.

The softer strains that become the common ones because of this fact.

Originally posted by Jim11
Now the new strain, in Mexico is not killing people over 60 but people between 20 and 40 aprox., affecting the active population, not the elder and thus the economy.

Go back and look at the ages of death from SARS and bird flu, also young people, but in Asia...the thing that is clear to me, is that these new outbreaks start in very crowded, poorer populations and hit hard because the immune system overreacts to the new bug it has no previous defense for. Also, people there are often malnourished, may have existing conditions, and do not have access to regular medical care. This thing was building for weeks before somebody figured out it was a new virus. People were filling ER's and being turned away. Also, the fact that you have a good immune system may actually be harmful in some of these cases of severe chest illness, it's a hyper-immune response that causes the lungs to fill with fluid. The flu doesn't often do the actual killing, it's the secondary pneumonia. As it starts going from person to person expanding outward, I think it's DNA changes a little to suit itself to the human host, and the human body has an easier time erradicating it without overreacting.