Pandemic - what happens in worst case

Story Here

WASHINGTON – Two million dead. Hospitals overwhelmed. Schools closed. Swaths of empty seats at baseball stadiums and houses of worship. An economic recovery snuffed out. We're nowhere close to what government planners say would be a worst-case scenario: a global flu pandemic. But government leaders at all levels, and major employers, have spent nearly four years planning for one in series of exercises....

A full-scale pandemic — if it ever comes — could be expected to claim the lives of about 2 percent of those infected, about 2 million Americans.

The government estimates that a pandemic like the 1918 Spanish flu would sicken 90 million Americans, or about 30 percent of the population. Of those, nearly 10 million would have to be admitted to a hospital, and nearly 1.5 million would need intensive care. About 750,000 would need the help of mechanical ventilators to keep breathing.

That is going on a 2% mortality rate.
This swine/avian/human flu in Mexico has a 7% mortality rate.

Does this country even have 750,000 ventilators?
Would this country have enough healthy medical workers to work those ventilators?

Just thought I should post this .. in answer to those who are saying 'what's the big deal' .. 'why the panic' .... 'only a few thousand are sick' .... 'it's just sensationalized' ... etc etc etc.

The 1918 flu started mild but mutated and ended up being a world wide killing machine. We are at the start of this pandemic. It could fizzle, but it could also be very, very bad.

Education and monitoring the situation are important.

Let's not be head-cases ... but let's not all be Pollyannas either.

I think people have gotten past the panic stage and are starting to prepare for the worst! I know I have...

An interesting report..

www.nytimes.com...

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration dispatched high-level officials from several agencies Monday to allay concerns about swine flu and to demonstrate that it was fully prepared to confront the outbreak even as the president said there was “not a cause for alarm.”

An important message buried in that report:

While experts praised the administration’s initial response, many warned that a more extensive outbreak of swine flu could tax the nation’s public health capabilities.

“If this gets worse, you’ll see the weakness of our system,” said Dr. Jeffrey P. Koplan, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “In an event like this, where everyone’s well-being is dependent on everyone else’s, we will both feel and see the problems our system creates.”

Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University, said federal officials reported six years ago that hospitals would need far more beds, ventilators and personal protective equipment to respond to a pandemic. Hospitals never got nearly enough extra equipment, Dr. Redlener said.

“We will pay a very heavy price for this if we get the big one,” he said.

It is a very good article and I highly suggest you read it if you have time

The aftermath of an epidemic is nothing to sneeze at either. [sorry for the stupid pun but I just couldn't help myself]

Seriously, the initial disease is just the first phase of an epidemic. The dead and dying also add contributing factors of their own. ex. breeding grounds for many other nasties, perhaps fostering a second epidemic on the heels of the first one, adding to the burden of the now exhausted and perhaps sick themselves, medical establishment.

Mother natures way of thinning the herd. Malthusian theory in action.
The survivors will envy the dead.

It's a brave new world, welcome to the monkey house.

[edit on 28-4-2009 by whaaa]

Worst case? Well, the only model we have is the 1918 flu pandemic. That one killed ~2.5% of the world's population and sickened ~500M or about 30% of the world's population. With the current world population of 6.7B we could expect perhaps 170M deaths. That, of course, is assuming that it runs similarly to the 1918 pandemic.

The argument could be made that we have muchy better medical infrastructure now and some anti-virals not available in 1918. But countering that is the fact that we also have much, much higher mobility than in 1918. It could spread much farther, much faster.

This outbreak will likely fizzle-out in short order. But we need to be especially on-guard come fall/winter when it could resurface with a nasty, nasty attitude.

I work for a medical device manufacturer..mostly breathing devices.So far orders have not increased. But its still early in this thing so who knows.

FOX TV NEWS is reporting a confirmed case of Swine/Avian/Human Hybrid Mexican flu in Florida. They also said the person had been to Disney World.

That fits MY PERSONAL worst-case ... an infected kid with a runny nose running around an amusement park with 100,000 people ... touching handrails .. sneezing and coughing in the Haunted Mansion .... etc etc

story here


[edit on 4/28/2009 by FlyersFan]

Originally posted by jtma508
Worst case? Well, the only model we have is the 1918 flu pandemic. That one killed ~2.5% of the world's population and sickened ~500M or about 30% of the world's population. With the current world population of 6.7B we could expect perhaps 170M deaths. That, of course, is assuming that it runs similarly to the 1918 pandemic.

The argument could be made that we have muchy better medical infrastructure now and some anti-virals not available in 1918. But countering that is the fact that we also have much, much higher mobility than in 1918. It could spread much farther, much faster.

This outbreak will likely fizzle-out in short order. But we need to be especially on-guard come fall/winter when it could resurface with a nasty, nasty attitude.

Okay so if 30% got sick and 2.5% of the total population died, then 2.5/.3 gives us the percentage of sick who died. This comes to 8 1/3 percent, which based on estimates so far, is higher than the 6-7% mortality rate of the current strain.

Even though this strain can mutate and become more deadly, this is the slightest bit of good news from a terrible situation, imo.

Well, considering outside of Mexico, it so far has a 0% mortality rate, I'd not get too worried about it. The symptoms are reported to be very mild. The 16 yo in NZ who was tested positive said pretty much that he didn't think he was 'in that league,' as the folks in Mexico, because it was so mild.

So, while whatever in Mexico proper is causing fatalities, it's odd that outside of the country, no one seems even at risk of being hospitalized for any symptoms.

In Mexico, the first cases appeared in december/2008 (many many unreported cases). After aprox. 4 months, number of people infected started to increase and the death rate is around 7%, based on what the media is telling us (it may be much worse). Maybe the virus needs some time to become deadly and to spread in a faster pace. I think that, at present time, pandemic is unstopable and we and our families can count only with luck not to be infected and, if infected, not to die.

reply to post by FlyersFan

Awww, Jeeese, i just got back from a month in Orlando and we went to all Disney parks the whole time i was there. I did leave with a cold but came back good as new. Incubation is only a few days and i've been back for over a week, so maybe i will be spared. What about my little grandchildren???
I know, we are here only meant to suffer. Thats it.
A good time for awhile, then suffering returns.
I can only ask for mercy in this lifetime. Thats all any of us can do.
My daughter in law works at Disney. :shk:

Not even 160 people have died.
www.msnbc.msn.com...

More people die in car accidents. And of everything else.

www.who.int...

10,000 people die of the flu each year.

Thousands die of cancer.

Thousands die from all kinds of things.

No one IN THIS COUNTRY has yet died from this.

Our health care isn't as terrible as everyone makes it out to be.

Everyone needs to settle down and be cautious...don't flip out.

As for Mexico...i hope for them...and I hope it doesn't happen here either.

This swine flu has hiding all of the things the government has done the last few days....it's all being overlooked...all for this.

Look at the other hand people....i'm not saying dismiss this obviously...but don't focus both eyes on the same thing.

reply to post by unityemissions



Check your math. IN the 1918 pandemic ~500M got sick. 50-100M died. So the mortality rate in 1918 was between 10% and 20%.

The problem in the current situation is that the Mexico outbreak has been going on for quite awhile. At least 4-weeks since it was first suspected. Earlier cases were not tested for it (since it wasn't suspected) and deaths not linked to it for the same reason. Only now is testing being done to determine if recent deaths are attributable to this outbreak.

Unfortunately, as is always the situation in cases like this, we won't have real numbers for quite some time. Outside of Mexico this is just starting. The 1918 flu came in three waves. First one in Spring (not too bad); second in Fall (much worse) and third the following Winter (major-ass killer).