Swine Flu news and updates thread

Sorry if I'm duplicating anything previously posted, but I think having some solid information about how flu viruses evolve might be useful here.

I see a lot of posts about this being engineered somehow. It puts me in mind of a quote I read somewhere:

"Never ascribe to conspiracy what can be adequately explained by stupidity."

Or something like that. My point is that natural processes easily account for the the presence and effects of this virus.


www.college.ucla.edu...

en.wikipedia.org...

www.truveo.com...

evolution.berkeley.edu...

www3.niaid.nih.gov...

www.plospathogens.org...

www.medicalnewstoday.com...

WHO has just upped it to level four.

Originally posted by Zykloner
Anyone have any idea of when to expect a WHO statement on wether they will raise epidemic phase etc?

-Zyk

Looks like they aren't going to so much raise it as revise the rating system. The jump between Level 3 and Level 4 is quite large and doesn't properly encompass what is actually happening. They need a level 3.5.

edit : Well, I guess I'm wrong! I still think that they need a level 3.5 though.

[edit on 2009/4/27 by Aeons]

reply to post by Chiiru


Saw some posts on something like that a little while ago, but then i read it(WHO) will revise its phase system.

Any sources?

-Zyk

you can add Saskatchawan, Massachusetts, South Dakota, and Ireland

MSNBC is reporting that a south carolina school is closed because of a swine flu scare there as well... ???

DHMC Napolitano says the alert level has been raised to 4

Originally posted by Chiiru
WHO has just upped it to level four.

Do you have an external link to this information? I cannot find anything on the WHO website.

The WHO just raised to level 4

Now I'm officially worried! - let's hope we never see level 5


Edit: I was beaten with a breaking news again! you guys are fast!

[edit on 27-4-2009 by Chevalerous]

Im not sure if Im thinking along the right lines here and maybe someone could help. Many of the posts have questioned the fact that there have been deaths in Mexico, yet none elsewhere. Ive also noted people posting about 1st, 2nd, 3rd generation contact.

So, my thinking is this.......... Lets take it that those who died were 2nd or 3rd generation contacts. This would mean that previously there had to be milder cses in the population that didnt result in deaths.

Stick with me.......is there any way to find out if there was a previous outbreak of flu in Mexico prior to this time. Maybe 3, 4,5 weeks before.

A. It wouldnt raise much concern because those who had it would just be suffering the conditions being seen outside mexico and it would probably just be classed as a standard viral or flu like infection.

B. The health service and conditions in mexico may mean that the officials didnt equate the initial virus as being the same as the next generation/s that are killing.

I think its important to know whether what we are seeing on our own doorsteps with (mild) symptoms is only the start.


Respects

reply to post by captiva


Very interesting....MANY here in Texas have been "ill" in recent weeks with sort of flu like symptoms,you know when you feel a bit cruddy but not bad enough to slow down or stay home?
I've heard of it elsewhere in the US as well,that "not myself" feeling.

I am hoping someone can expand on your possible theory!

[edit on 27-4-2009 by irishchic]

Holy crap the guy on the Live Stream on CNN just said that they are concern about this from a BIOTERRORISM response perspective - which is why they aren't upset at Mexico's standards.

That's a bad slip up.

Second guy is trying to tone it down from the first guy.

[edit on 2009/4/27 by Aeons]

MSNBC - WHO officially raises alert to stage 4

Edit: Also beaten by faster posters!

[edit on 27-4-2009 by lucentenigma]

Could anyone give me the real, not the media hyped numbers, the real numbers about the Mexico and the worldwide case? As I read at BBC, when they stated there was 20 dead, there was 200. Now there are 146, so should we multiply this number with 10?

The real numbers are surely not covering the reality.

reply to post by captiva


There are immune system factors to consider, however, I believe the high mortality rate in Mexico is a result of the early outbreak when initially people thought they had a common flu.

Perhaps it is possible that the progression of the illness was allowed to reach an irretrievable fatal level (respiratory) as a result of that initial ignorance?

By the time people from other nations had been confirmed as having this virus treatments were immediately available.

I suppose only time will tell, but this seems a more logical explanation for the discrepancy in the severity of this infection in Mexico and the reported infections elsewhere.

reply to post by Aeons


Not sure I understand but you're suggesting that the "response" might be "as if" it were a bio-terriorism event instead of the possibly of less than best hygiene of some of the areas affected in Mexico?

Holy Chit...now that would be alarming...the fact that it would possibly be "dealt with" as such without knowing for a fact that if was one?

Now I'm a bit worried.

Originally posted by ShadowIntelligence
Could anyone give me the real, not the media hyped numbers, the real numbers about the Mexico and the worldwide case? As I read at BBC, when they stated there was 20 dead, there was 200. Now there are 146, so should we multiply this number with 10?

The real numbers are surely not covering the reality.

Not every case will be confirmed. The confirmations should be seen as being a good indication that something is happening, but not as the full picture.

I sure don't go in to be tested every time I get the flu or a cold. And I don't take my kids in. I am fine with doctors, I just don't see that it is necessary. There are surely MANY people who never are confirmed from a scientific stand point.

can someone please confirm the raising to level 4 status by WHO..?

Not a one line post

respects

Originally posted by Walkswithfish
reply to post by paperplanes

 

I agree, from the reports I have been reading through this virus seems to cause the most severe condition in people in prime health.

The better your immune system the more severe the respiratory condition can be?

In fact in some of the cases that ended in death many were in prime health, between the ages of 20-50 years... And the intense immune system reaction caused inflammatory tissue reaction and the lungs to fill with mucous and fluids... An overreaction of the immune system?

That's about it. The response is called a cytokine storm, and is held responsible for the majority of the deaths seen during the 1918 flu pandemic. In this event, your body calls far too many immune cells to the site of an infection, and the result is inflammation in the tissues. As a cytokine storm continues, the inflammation becomes more severe and can even cut off breathing and cause permanent damage to lung tissue.

Because the victims of the 1918 pandemic tended to be those with the most virile immune systems, and the victims this time around are also apparently from the healthiest age group, a connection has been made between the two. Now, we don't have a complete picture of the demographics of the current Swine Flu victims, so we cannot be certain. However, authorities reporting from Mexico have frequently stated that the victims appear to primarily be young adults. History tells us that this is likely due to cytokine storm.

www.wisegeek.com...

For reasons not completely known, too many immune cells can be sent to the infection site. This happens when a particular type of molecule in the body, known as cytokines, activate the immune cells at the infection site and cause more immune cells to flood the site of infection. This propagates what is referred to as a cytokine storm where far too many immune cells are caught in an endless loop of calling more and more immune cells to fight the infection. The cytokine storm ends up inflaming the tissue surrounding the infection.
When the infection is in the lungs, severe inflammation caused by a cytokine storm can cause permanent lung damage. A prolonged cytokine storm will eventually shut down breathing altogether. Airducts get clogged and cells no longer properly absorb oxygen. This is what makes the cytokine storm so deadly in certain epidemic strains, such as bird flu. Even bronchitis, other varieties of influenza, pneumonia, sepsis and possibly rheumatoid arthritis are susceptible to triggering a cytokine storm.

Originally posted by Aeons

Originally posted by Zykloner
Anyone have any idea of when to expect a WHO statement on wether they will raise epidemic phase etc?

-Zyk

Looks like they aren't going to so much raise it as revise the rating system. The jump between Level 3 and Level 4 is quite large and doesn't properly encompass what is actually happening. They need a level 3.5.

edit : Well, I guess I'm wrong!

I still think that they need a level 3.5 though.

[edit on 2009/4/27 by Aeons]

Actually Level 4 is quite appropriate

From the WHO website:

In Phase 2 an animal influenza virus circulating among domesticated or wild animals is known to have caused infection in humans, and is therefore considered a potential pandemic threat.

In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks. Limited human-to-human transmission may occur under some circumstances, for example, when there is close contact between an infected person and an unprotected caregiver. However, limited transmission under such restricted circumstances does not indicate that the virus has gained the level of transmissibility among humans necessary to cause a pandemic.

Phase 4 is characterized by verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause “community-level outbreaks.” The ability to cause sustained disease outbreaks in a community marks a significant upwards shift in the risk for a pandemic. Any country that suspects or has verified such an event should urgently consult with WHO so that the situation can be jointly assessed and a decision made by the affected country if implementation of a rapid pandemic containment operation is warranted. Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region (Figure 4). While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

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This is what's strange too..........it is in other countries. That in itself is the worrisome part really. Also, media keep calling it 'SWINE FLU' when it is actually a combo of bird and human and swine. Of course mainstream media isn't saying that. In fact, some news sources, radio shows have commentators saying the whole story is stupid basically because it was a 'dead news' weekend and they had to drum up something. WHAT???

I still smell a fish here............