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Swine Flu news and updates thread

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posted on Oct, 13 2009 @ 09:02 PM
I wanted to share some information with everyone, please don't take this as something to be afraid of, in fact it might lead to some positive developments.

One of the mysteries of this virus is the random ways in which it affects people. Going off of the standard flu models the reasons for this were thought to be variations in the genetic make up of the virus, differences in the genetic make up of the population and so on.

What we've seen from this virus is a set of three main "effects"

1. Long lasting version, patient can remain ill for a month or more (6 week avg). Some deaths but all are from secondary infections (pneumonia). Primary symptom is severe cough. Low fevers, rising as secondary infection takes hold.

2. Mild flu, no deaths - 3 to 5 days with very mild symptoms / fewer symptoms. No fever but usually lower than normal temperature.

3. Rapidly lethal. Patient goes into cytokinetic storm and dies within 12-24 hours from onset. Very little warning, symptoms go from nothing to severe breathing difficulty in a few hours time. Panic, confusion, high fever starts midway, violent cough is usually first sign.

The most progressive theories on this are that the variation is from "viral load". This means the strength of infection depends on how much of the virus is present in the local populace.

A normal pandemic flu moves in waves. The first season will show some lethality above the norm and the second season will be much worse. Past highly lethal pandemics such as the Spanish Flu had two waves with the second being the worst. Everyone expected this swine flu to act the same and for the most part, it has tracked very close to the 1918 model. It was this expectation of a severe second wave which drove the WHO to push for rapid vaccine development and fed all the drama around this coming season.

While the official policy is still to expect a much worse virus this season the number of fatalities vs. high numbers of infected has diverged from the predictive models.

The experimental theory being discussed is that this virus does not behave according to the standard model, that it acts in waves which are much shorter than the seasonal standard and that these waves also very in length. It's thought the viral load in terms of the strength of the virus itself varies in these waves which in turn causes the lethality to vary.

Since the virus is moving through the population in vectors the timing of the waves for each vector would be slightly different the further away they move from the initial outbreak.

This would explain why we say mass casualties in Mexico but also saw mass instances of the other two waves.

The waves start with the mild variant which lasts x amount of time (probably a week to one month). The viral load / strength increases and it moves into lethal form for a few days, killing very few people at a time or even one person in a geographical area. After this peak the virus moves into the last wave and hits people with a "medium" strength which triggers the long time variant. This phase may last anywhere from a week to a month.

If this theory pans out it means we have a good chance of not seeing another "Mexico City" type outbreak of fatalities unless the virus waves / vectors manage to randomly sync up again in a prime location -or- if the waves start to compress.

Unfortunately the possibility of a compression of the lifecycle is higher than we would like to see. The natural mutation in the flu virus is also a possible modification source. Sorry, no really good news but we may finally have an idea why this virus seems to effect people with such random results.

I should mention, in lab conditions the virus is very "universal" in its ability to infect people. Since the changes in results are driven by viral load / virus strength the lab testing would show a fairly consistent genetic profile. The differences in viral load would be attributed to other factors than a compressed wave cycle (for lack of better terminology).

Also - the spread of vaccines in the public may also effect the cycles in a negative way. Its all about how long it takes us to reach 60% completion of the population as to exactly how bad that impact might be. In other words, we might make it worse before it gets better.

[edit on 13-10-2009 by ecoparity]

posted on Oct, 13 2009 @ 09:05 PM
reply to post by gluetrap

If he's already had the bug for 1-2 days now the tamiflu really won't do much for him other than help some of the symptoms. At this point just make sure he gets plenty of gatorade/powerade to replace the electrolytes (pedialite is the best, regardless of age, I keep a bottle in my fridge just in case I get it... or that new gatorade tiger stuff would work well). Plenty of tylenol (not asprin or alieve or advil, just tylenol). No strenous activity, but it would help to pile up with clothes, keep the thermostat up and anything else that might help him shed some sweat (thus shedding virus). Wish him a speedy recovery.

posted on Oct, 14 2009 @ 01:16 PM
i wonder if the governent will be helping the poor with the cost of injections

posted on Oct, 14 2009 @ 01:21 PM
Don't know if this is already on this thread or not, and don't have the time to read through 500 or so pages, but thought any suggestion to help stop the spread of H1N1 might be useful information. I received this info via an email, and also found the website where it was taken from.

"Prevent Swine Flu - Good Advice

Dr. Vinay Goyal is an MBBS,DRM,DNB (Intensivist and Thyroid specialist) having clinical experience of over 20 years. He has worked in institutions like Hinduja Hospital , Bombay Hospital , Saifee Hospital , Tata Memorial etc.. Presently, he is heading our Nuclear Medicine Department and Thyroid clinic at Riddhivinayak Cardiac and Critical Centre, Malad (W).

The following message given by him, I feel makes a lot of sense and is important for all to know

The only portals of entry are the nostrils and mouth/throat. In a global epidemic of this nature, it's almost impossible to avoid coming into contact with H1N1 in spite of all precautions. Contact with H1N1 is not so much of a problem as proliferation is.

While you are still healthy and not showing any symptoms of H1N1 infection, in order to prevent proliferation, aggravation of symptoms and development of secondary infections, some very simple steps, not fully highlighted in most official communications, can be practiced (instead of focusing on how to stock N95 or Tamiflu):

1. Frequent hand-washing (well highlighted in all official communications).

2. "Hands-off-the-face" approach. Resist all temptations to touch any part of face (unless you want to eat, bathe or slap).

3. *Gargle twice a day with warm salt water (use Listerine if you don't trust salt). *H1N1 takes 2-3 days after initial infection in the throat/ nasal cavity to proliferate and show characteristic symptoms. Simple gargling prevents proliferation. In a way, gargling with salt water has the same effect on a healthy individual that Tamiflu has on an infected one. Don't underestimate this simple, inexpensive and powerful preventative method.

4. Similar to 3 above, *clean your nostrils at least once every day with warm salt water. *Not everybody may be good at Jala Neti or Sutra Neti (very good Yoga asanas to clean nasal cavities), but *blowing the nose hard once a day and swabbing both nostrils with cotton buds dipped in warm salt water is very effective in bringing down viral population.*

5. *Boost your natural immunity with foods that are rich in Vitamin C (Amla and other citrus fruits). *If you have to supplement with Vitamin C tablets, make sure that it also has Zinc to boost absorption.

6. *Drink as much of warm liquids (tea, coffee, etc) as you can. *Drinking warm liquids has the same effect as gargling, but in the reverse direction. They wash off proliferating viruses from the throat into the stomach where they cannot survive, proliferate or do any harm.

I suggest you pass this on to your entire e-list. You never know 20 who might pay attention to it - and STAY ALIVE because of it."

This is the address of the website:

posted on Oct, 14 2009 @ 04:52 PM
It sounds like this was a result of the seasonal vaccine - not the swine.
But - it was a reaction to a vaccine - and a life that's changed.

posted on Oct, 15 2009 @ 07:46 AM
Swine flu kills pregnant teenager

A pregnant teenager from the Borders has become the 15th person in Scotland to die from swine flu.

The 17-year-old is understood to have died in the past 24 hours though no further details have been released.

This tragic death highlights that some groups are at greater risk and should take up the offer of vaccination

Nicola Sturgeon
Health secretary

What a shame, Gives no details of her unborn child, two die as a result of this flu.. My heart goes out to this girls family.


posted on Oct, 15 2009 @ 09:31 PM
Well here in my state only 3 deaths has been attributed to the swine flu, but as today the health department is going to count all flu related deaths as not longer a division between seasonal flu and swine flu but all will be credited to Swine flu alone

posted on Oct, 16 2009 @ 09:02 AM
reply to post by marg6043


If true that is blatant dishonesty.

posted on Oct, 22 2009 @ 10:19 AM
WHO figures:


Worldwide (total) 5,335 Increase the last 7 days: +588 (11%) figures:

Suspected (9,029)
Confirmed (723,962)
Fatal (6,177)

Fourteen people have died in the last week in the UK, four in the same school (within 24 hours) in Scotland

posted on Oct, 22 2009 @ 03:15 PM
This is, effectively, every school in the Battle Creek, Michigan area:

Some are citing 1/3 of students as being out with the flu (!), as their reason for closing the schools. Locally, it's being reported as H1N1, but I'm not sure on the number of confirmed cases.

Churches are also closing their doors, in large numbers.

posted on Oct, 22 2009 @ 04:13 PM
latest flu news from Belgium,
They just said on tv that we had 15000 new cases in the last week, the numbers are doubling each week. So far 5 comfirmed deaths.
In some schools 1/3 of the kids is sick at home with Mexican flu, they expect this to worsen over the next weeks.

Vacines are available next month and the gov wants everyone who gets the vacine to be registered (not sure why)

it is estimated that 53% of the people is saying they won't take the vacine, upon this they keep reasuring us on tv that the vacine is safe, fully tested and aproved and that there are no risks.

I found no online link about this, im sure there will be one tomorrow.

posted on Oct, 22 2009 @ 06:02 PM
Not sure if this has been posted but Sauk county Wisconsin is under a state of emergency because of the swine flu...They will be receiving 60,000 shots soon...I'll keep the board updated not sure if this is in the right place..and I can not yet start a post yet

posted on Oct, 22 2009 @ 08:55 PM
Just thought I would add a bit of information I learned today from a friend who's niece is part of the Infectious Diseases Department at our local Hospital.

They recently had a meeting to discuss the procedures they are going to have in place for incoming patients they feel may have the H1N1 virus. They were told that if a patient comes in exhibiting symptoms of the H1N1 virus they were to take a blood sample which would be forwarded for testing to an out-of-town lab (which is not uncommon for our local as many of the blood tests from our hospital have to be done by labs out of town.)

The patient would then be sent home until these blood tests were confirmed to be positive or negative. The problem being they were told is that it may take two weeks to get the results back!! Bottom line, they were told is that by then the possibly infected person may potentially have already succumbed to the disease or more hopefully had recovered.

I thought this seemed an almost archaic way of doing things and wanted to get some feedback and or confirmation if this is the way it is being handled at Hospitals in other communities both inside and outside of Canada.

posted on Oct, 22 2009 @ 09:26 PM
My 14 year old great niece is fighting for her life in the hospital.

She had the swine flu 5 weeks ago and then got pneumonia.

During the time she was in the emergency room Monday 4 other teens were also admitted with pneumonia. Three of those went home from the hospital today.

Michelle's father was given emergency leave from the Air Force to come to Georgia to be with her.

The H1N1 hits hard when it hits home. This child is or was the picture of health and an outstanding student with no underlying conditions.

posted on Oct, 22 2009 @ 10:40 PM
reply to post by ecoparity

Very informative post. IMO, this deserves it's own separate thread.

Although, I have to say, I'm having to do a lot of research to try to understand it (not knowing very much about medical terminology/theory/etc myself).

Cytokinetic Storm? Viral Load? I'm trying to figure out precisely what this terminology means.

Nevertheless, great post.

posted on Oct, 22 2009 @ 10:58 PM

Originally posted by dizziedame
My 14 year old great niece is fighting for her life in the hospital.

She had the swine flu 5 weeks ago and then got pneumonia.

During the time she was in the emergency room Monday 4 other teens were also admitted with pneumonia. Three of those went home from the hospital today.

Michelle's father was given emergency leave from the Air Force to come to Georgia to be with her.

The H1N1 hits hard when it hits home. This child is or was the picture of health and an outstanding student with no underlying conditions.

I am really sorry to hear this... my thoughts are with her as well as the rest of your family. I hope she recovers soon.

posted on Oct, 23 2009 @ 02:09 AM
Is it getting worse?

Swine flu doctors 'unnerved' by patients' decline

The number of people in intensive care with swine flu has reached its highest point yet, with 99 people currently in critical care beds out of a total of 506 in hospital.

Sir Liam said intensive care specialists have told him privately that they are 'unnerved by the severity off the illness and how quickly it can develop'. He said some patients are 'getting into a life and death situation very early on'.

The number of patients in intensive care has risen from 74 last week. The proportion of patients in hospital who are in critical care has remained at around 12 to 13 per cent since the outbreak began but is now been at 20 per cent for two weeks.

The reason for the sudden jump in the number of patients with suffering with severe swine flu is unknown.

Sir Liam said the virus has not changed and further data will be collected to establish if there are common factors linking the patients in critical care, such as underlying illnesses.

Paediatric intensive care beds are under particular pressure with 17 per cent of beds in some areas taken up by swine flu patients.

Plans are in place to double intensive care bed capacity as cases rise and health officials said that is now becoming more likely.

One in four of the patients in intensive care is under the age of 16.

The number of people who have died so far in the outbreak has increased to 122 in the UK, with 93 of them in England.

Sir Liam said over half of the deaths were in people aged under 45 and that this was a "very unusual pattern for flu".

Older people seem to have some residual immunity against the H1N1 virus from previous pandemics involving similar strains, research has suggested, and swine flu is hitting young age groups harder.

One in five deaths has been in children under the age of 15 and a further 34 per cent has been in people aged between 16 and 44, data from the Department of Health showed.

Sir Liam said the swine flu pandemic will see unprecedented pressure on the health service for months to come as the second wave of the disease takes hold over the winter.

Cases almost doubled in the last week with an estimated 53,000 new diagnoses of H1N1 in England in the last seven days.

Revised predictions for the course of the disease over the coming winter were released by the Department of Health showing that at its peak week 1.5 million people may be ill.

posted on Oct, 23 2009 @ 02:13 AM


Worrying leap to 53,000

Cases of swine flu have almost doubled in a week with more young people being hit and fears that hospitals may soon be struggling to cope.

Figures yesterday showed an estimated 53,000 new cases in the past seven days - up from 27,000 the previous week.

The total is now put at 435,000 and experts believe it could peak at 1.5million a week which would put huge pressure on the NHS.

As a girl of nine was feared one of the latest victims, Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson said he was concerned by the high proportion of deaths in younger age groups.

He was also worried by the number of hospital cases, which have risen in England to 506, with 99 people in critical care.

Of these, 23 are 15 or under, 73 are between 16 and 64 and just three are 65 or over.

The death of the nine-year-old was reported from East Surrey Hospital in Redhill.

She was a Year 5 student at the Three Bridges Junior School near Crawley. In a letter to parents, head Matthew Westgarth said: "The cause of death is not yet known. However swine flu may be a contributory factor."

And now we have Four more deaths from swine flu

posted on Oct, 24 2009 @ 02:51 PM
reply to post by tarifa37

All four patients had significant underlying health conditions.

Do we have any figures at all that show what percentage of healthy people are croaking?

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