Deadlier H1N1 in winter
Warning seen in rising death toll in S. America as seasons change
BUENOS AIRES - MOUNTING fatalities in the South American winter launched a new warning yesterday on what to expect from the flu pandemic.
With the World Health Organisation now putting the global toll at more than 700 - a leap of 40 per cent since the start of the month - scientists fear
the onset of winter could see Influenza A (H1N1) mutate to a more deadly form, in a reprise of the Spanish and Asian influenza pandemics of 1918 and
1958.
www.straitstimes.com...
July 22, 2009
No respite from flu
SANTIAGO - CHILE announced on Tuesday that the country's death toll from swine flu has risen from 40 to 68, as the virus cuts deeper across Latin
America where hundreds of deaths have been linked to the pandemic.
Last week, Health Secretary Jeanette Vega predicted Chile was nearing the end of a wave of cases associated with the southern hemisphere's winter
season, despite 11,293 confirmed cases of infection.
On Monday, Argentina announced 168 confirmed fatalities associated with the virus, becoming the world's second worst-affected country, behind only
the United States, where 263 people have died of swine flu.
www.straitstimes.com...
This is what we feared would happen, I think. For those of you interested, I'm tracking the "hot zone" mortality rates and trend lines on this
thread:
www.abovetopsecret.com...
I define a "hot zone" as any geographic area with a mortality rate equal to or more than 0.7%. Current mortality rates are very scary for the
Central/South America as of 2 days ago:
Central America:
Costa Rica: 2.2%, 11 of 503
Dominican Republic: 1.9%, 2 of 108
El Salvador: 1.1%, 5 of 453
Honduras: 0.8%, 1 of 123
Jamiaca: 4.4%, 2 of 44
aggregate: 1.7%, 21 of 1231
South America:
Argentina: 4.5%, 137 of 3056
Colombia: 4.0%, 8 of 202
Ecuador: 1.3%, 5 of 394
Paraguay: 5.7%, 10 of 175
Uruguay: 3.6%, 20 of 550
aggregate: 4.1%, 180 of 4377
Hot zones aggregate: 1.0%, 594 of 60586
Global aggregate: 0.6%, 780 of 126,660
www.abovetopsecret.com...
I'll be gathering stats and updating later today with US hot zones by state after the CDC publishes their weekly update. Clearly this is worse by at
least a third more than the 0.43% max mortality predicted by the WHO and CDC.