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Swine Flu news and updates thread

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posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 01:42 PM
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reply to post by Aeons
 


the 5.5% is a bit high, I was just throwing out some rough estimates.

I wrote a paper about two years ago on the effect of mass transportation, transportation rates, and city centers and their effect on virus mobility. So I understand this topic pretty well (without being an actual virologist, I'm a lowly molecular biologist, but I do focus in pathogenics). Modern day transportation is amazing, we can throw 200 people on a plane and transport them from NY to just about anywhere in the country in a few hours. If one of those people have H1N1, not only will that whole plane likely be infected by the time they reach the ground, but you have also transplanted the virus from one side of the country to the other, and now have 200 carriers spreading the virus. This is where city centers come in. Now not only have you transported the virus cross country, but the densely populated city centers are virtual media for the virus to propagate and spread wildly.

The reason the WHO raised the pandemic level to 6 is because H1N1 is undergoing (in the definition of level 6) community wide infection. Take that just as it sounds. If the virus works its way into your community, nearly everyone will come down with some form of it. yes it is that infectious.

SO...

If you live in a rural setting, your probably the safest of everyone. Suburbs, a little higher on the infection probability scale and if you live in a city (like I do) your virtually dead meat (dead meat, bad pun).

I came up with 50% by thinking 75% of urban populations (where the virus spreads easily due to close contact and sheer number of contacts you have in a daily basis) and 25% of rural population... quick average 50%. Its a high number but I really think the infection rate this fall will fall into the 33%-50% category.

You have to think at LEAST 1/3 of the US comes down with regular flu each flu season (im not talking about year long numbers). With a more pathogenic strain such as H1N1 that number is going to be a lot higher.




posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 02:37 PM
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edited: off topic post



[edit on 15-7-2009 by unityemissions]



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 10:49 PM
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Superb page to stock up on stuff. Notice the Oral Rehydration Solution, which would be crucial in an emergency but very simple to make:

www.flutrackers.com...



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 10:08 AM
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29 now dead in the United Kingdom of Swine Flu, government notices a rapid increase of fatalities.



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 11:26 AM
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I know about 7 people now who have pig flu. They are all ok still, they have been house bound and have drugs from the docs.

I have to admit, I panicked when I first heard about swine flu, as alot of people did, but after reading into it, realising that the symptoms are very watered down over here, i can breathe a sigh of relief.



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 11:28 AM
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reply to post by infinite
 


Beat me to it! Quite a jump in deaths, and this is the summer!

[edit on 16-7-2009 by Haydn_17]



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 11:44 AM
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Cherie Blair has suspected swine flu

Phew, that's a relief. The elites reptilian blood is susceptible to piggy flu.



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 01:10 PM
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reply to post by infinite
 


Not only the jump in deaths but the number of cases has risen to 55,000 which i assume is the uk total, thats up from 10,000 last week.



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 01:43 PM
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I don't understand why people seem suprised. It's just an exponential curve:





When the creator of the game of chess (in some tellings, an ancient Indian mathematician, in others, a legendary dravida vellalar named Sessa or Sissa) showed his invention to the ruler of the country, the ruler was so pleased that he gave the inventor the right to name his prize for the invention. The man, who was very wise, asked the king this: that for the first square of the chess board, he would receive one grain of wheat (in some tellings, rice), two for the second one, four on the third one and so forth, doubling the amount each time. The ruler, who was not strong in mathematics, quickly accepted the inventor's offer, even getting offended by his perceived notion that the inventor was asking for such a low price, and ordered the treasurer to count and hand over the wheat to the inventor. However, when the treasurer took more than a week to calculate the amount of wheat, the ruler asked him for a reason for his tardiness. The treasurer then gave him the result of the calculation, and explained that it would be impossible to give the inventor the reward. The ruler then, to get back at the inventor who tried to outsmart him, told the inventor that in order for him to receive his reward, he was to count every single grain that was given to him, in order to make sure that the ruler was not stealing from him. The amount of wheat is approximately 80 times what would be produced in one harvest, at modern yields, if all of Earth's arable land could be devoted to wheat. The total of grains is approximately 0.0031% of the number of atoms in 12 grams of carbon-12 (Avogadro's Number) and probably more than 200,000 times the estimated number of neuronal connections in the human brain (see large numbers). In terms of volume: if we assume that a grain of rice occupies a volume of 2 cubic millimetres, on average, in a bag of rice; then the total volume of all the rice on the chess board would be about 36.89 cubic kilometres

Wiki



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 03:00 PM
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UK says worst case scenario 63,000 people will die
online.wsj.com...
Austrailia says worst case scenario 6,000 people will die
news.xinhuanet.com...
Russia Today (RT) says the swine flu was created in a lab
www.youtube.com...
WHO says its spreading so fast that they stopped counting!
www.reuters.com...

very troubling developments indeed

[edit on 16-7-2009 by TheCoffinman]



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 06:40 PM
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I'm surprised this hasn't been posted already-

news.yahoo.com...

So local needs will be enough to overcome how much another country is willing to pay?



posted on Jul, 16 2009 @ 07:18 PM
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reply to post by winotka
 


- no vaccines produced in uk
, thats typical!

makes no odds to me as i wont be taking it but it will worry some, although you can bet the guys at the top will get it before the peasants.



posted on Jul, 17 2009 @ 08:02 AM
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4 more uk deaths, including a baby less than 6 months old.



posted on Jul, 17 2009 @ 08:02 AM
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4 more uk deaths, including a baby less than 6 months old.



posted on Jul, 17 2009 @ 11:25 AM
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Besides the direct risk of dying from the flu, there's likely to be collateral damage, both to the economy and the population.

The more I research the aftereffects of the 1918 flu pandemic, the more I discover that a very large percentage of those hospitalized (or those who should have been) and survived, turned out to have lingering aftereffects which killed them a year or three later; they never truly recovered their pre-illness health. The 1918 virus showed an ability to penetrate the nervous system, causing dementias and effecting judgement, as well as diminishing overall health; the 2009 virus is showing a similar ability to penetrate deeply into the body, in this case it seem to be penetrating the digestive system. So there will be an extended risk period, severity currently unknown, but above zero.

So far, absolutely none of the financial talking heads on Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, anywhere I can find, are taking the fllu into account economically: the current thinking is that the magical mystery "consumer" will re-emerge from hiding in the fall and put the economy back on its feet, all while the job market continues going south through 2010. How that works is beyond me, and I'm a pretty smart guy who pays lots more attention to a wider variety of things than most do: the employee and the consumer are the same person, which bankers and financial gurus don't seem to get. What seems to be driving their thought process is the idea that"Well, those are bad numbers, but not as bad as they could have been." Sorta of like "Wow, I only lost an arm in the wreck!". Put's me in mind of Monty Python's knight: "It's only a flesh wound!!". But the reality is that a lot of economic activity will simply drop off a cliff if the pandemic strikes hard. Apply that to the current financial scenario and I'm pretty sure the flu will be as deadly to the economy as it is to the population: a nasty feedback loop.

Just thinking.

www.google.com...

Swine flu could tip world into deflation: study


www.google.com...

[edit on 17-7-2009 by apacheman]



posted on Jul, 17 2009 @ 11:33 AM
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Well I just learned from my sister in Puertorrico that they just got a hoard of scientist and (weird looking people) taking over the hospitals for the testing of the new swine vaccine she works in one of the major hospitals in the Island and even she said that many of the doctors and hospital workers are very apprehensive about the testing and its results.

My sister said that she will not be taking their (junk) and will not be a Guinea pig either.



posted on Jul, 18 2009 @ 11:47 AM
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China is still taking this seriously-

news.bbc.co.uk...

At first the article said 100k children. Now it just says 100. I bet editors get paid well.


Something I hadn't noticed before in The Stand towards the end. The Walkin Dude is looking for that lab in the west that may have new and improved strains of swine flu. That's just creepy that King had that in his novel.



posted on Jul, 18 2009 @ 12:10 PM
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Ok, found a new website that is compiling breaking swine flu news in one location. Get instant swine flu alerts and valuable headline news on the influenza pandemic. Hope that helps centralize some of the work we have to do staying on top of things.

To get the latest, visit www.swineflufeeds.com... Swine Flu Alerts Website.



posted on Jul, 18 2009 @ 12:36 PM
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reply to post by swine_flu
 


good but....
In Western Europe, countries aren't even counting anymore. Doctors aren't obligated to report cases and the public is adviced to just stay at home when they suspect to have this flu.
I don't think the numbers are accurate, certainly not since last week.

We had 3 reports of busdrivers who where infected, Imagine how much they spread it around, and the people who got it from them.. and them... etc. No one is counting.

[edit on 18/7/2009 by GypsK]



posted on Jul, 18 2009 @ 02:32 PM
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Originally posted by apacheman
Besides the direct risk of dying from the flu, there's likely to be collateral damage, both to the economy and the population.


Totally agree with you about this and yet it's not being widely discussed anywhere. If large numbers of people start staying off work, because they're ill, then it could have some serious implications.

Larger companies may have contingency plans to keep them afloat but smaller businesses might not be able to cope with a lot of staff off. With the world economy in such a bad state, we can't afford for more small businesses to go under, more people to lose their jobs and more houses to get repossessed.

My husband and I have a small business and if we don't work, we don't get paid. If we don't get paid, we can't pay our mortgage and bills. There's so many more people in exactly the same position and already I know several self-employed friends that are off work right now, with flu symptoms, and they're very worried about lack of income. In the current work climate, they've been taking on every job they can get because none of them know when work will dry up. Now they've got unhappy customers that expected a job to be done but it hasn't been because of the flu.



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