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Swine Flu news and updates thread

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posted on Jul, 13 2009 @ 10:08 AM
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Flu casualties 'high-risk'

Source


FOLLOWING the death of a second person from swine flu, Minister of Health Ruddy Spencer said hospital staff did all they could for at least one of the victims.

Kareem-Jabar Nathaniel Leiba died of influenza A (H1N1 virus) at the University Hospital of the West Indies
after being transferred from the Spanish Town Hospital last Monday.

Spencer said the review into Leiba's death revealed he was particularly susceptible.

"The patient had underlying medical conditions, which placed him at high risk for complications and death from being infected with influenza A (H1N1)," the minister said.

Spencer also said the review into the second death indicated that the person fell within the high-risk group and died from complications to underlying medical conditions.

Leiba's grieving mother, Rochelle Grandison, told The Gleaner last week that she needed answers about how her son died, as the ministry's claim of underlined health problems opened the door to speculation.

"There are too many unanswered questions," Grandison said.



Peter Holden, the British Medical Association's lead negotiator on swine flu, has warned that "if this virus does (mutate), it can get a lot more nasty".




posted on Jul, 13 2009 @ 02:48 PM
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I am currently working on a project studying h1n1 (among other ssRNA viruses) and in my work received a letter from one of my SME's about this coming fall and the H1N1 IMMINENT outbreak.

In the memo:
-Be prepared for business shut downs
-Large gatherings to be canceled
-NATIONWIDE VACCINATION BEGINNING WITH FIRST RESPONDERS

also...
-the virus (so far) is not becoming more deadly
-the virus is 2x to 3x more infectious than common flu strains
-20-60yo is the target population

...and most interestingly what we have found so far
-pregnant women are most at risk. Most likely bc their immune systems are already on high alert trying to protect the fetus. As we have already seen in the cases in the US thus far, it is the over reaction of the immune system that kills the patients. Whenever a disease turns autoimmune, its easy to fudge the numbers as many deaths will be classified as pneumonia and other complications.

H1N1 infection can be likened (loosely) to HIV infection (but inversely related). Where as HIV breaks down the immune system and deteriorates to AIDS, H1N1 causes the immune system to fight back enormously, causing major damage to tissue inside the body.

There are NO SIGNS it is man made. And I see a lot of quotes and references here that 'many scientists confirm its man made'... I have talked to at least 100 scientists (molecular biologists, microbiologists and virologists) and NOT A SINGLE ONE has even mentioned it being man made. 50% of those have seen preliminary genomic data, and still... no calls for a bioweapon.

Everyone just needs to be aware. You will probably be infected. You will probably know 20-30 people that will be infected. You will probably know 1-2 people that will die. Those are just the facts.

Look at the widespread infection rates in the southern hemisphere and they are just now starting their 'flu season'... it will only get worse in the south. This scenario presents quite a problem for us in the NH. If the infection rates continue this fast in the south, case rates in the north will rise even before the fall and our flu season. This heightened baseline before we even enter the typical flu season simply equates to even more cases in the northern hemisphere than there will be in the south... also coupled with the NH being the initial site of infection.

Again, I try to check these boards regularly... but I am quite busy in my work and research right now. I will try to get to as many U2U as I can, don't be affraid to ask... I'll shoot it to you straight (from the horses mouth).



posted on Jul, 13 2009 @ 03:07 PM
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Teachers and other child care workers should be at the top of the list for vaccinations. There is a clear trend for adults with severe complications or who are dying to be in these professions.



posted on Jul, 13 2009 @ 05:46 PM
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H1N1 swine flu attacks the respiratory system in a more sustained way than the standard seasonal virus, research in animals shows.

Tests showed swine flu multiplies in greater numbers across the respiratory system, and causes more damage.

And instead of staying in the head like seasonal flu, it penetrates deeper into the respiratory tissues - making it more likely to cause pneumonia.

The University of Wisconsin study appears in the journal Nature.

It also suggests that swine flu may mimic the flu virus which caused the great pandemic of 1918, in which millions died.
news.bbc.co.uk...



posted on Jul, 13 2009 @ 08:49 PM
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reply to post by EDteach
 


Like we've been noticing for a while now-

It also suggests that swine flu may mimic the flu virus which caused the great pandemic of 1918, in which millions died.

The 1918 virus also had a greater ability than standard flu to cause damage to the respiratory system.


And in the US, a billion dollars has been approved to fight this in the fall...lovely.



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 04:54 AM
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www.reuters.com...

The elderly seem to have some extra immunity to this new H1N1, which is a mixture of two swine viruses, one of which also contains genetic material from birds and humans. It is a very distant cousin of the H1N1 virus that caused the 1918 pandemic that killed 50 million to 100 million people.

A study published in the journal Nature on Monday confirmed that the blood of people born before 1920 carries antibodies to the 1918 strain, suggesting their immune systems remember a childhood infection.



"Obesity has been observed to be one of the risk factors for more severe reaction to H1N1" -- something never before seen, Kieny added. It is not clear if obese people may have undiagnosed health problems that make them susceptible, or if obesity in and of itself is a risk.

On Friday, a team at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the University of Michigan reported that nine out of 10 patients treated in an intensive care unit there were obese. They also had unusual symptoms such as blood clots in the lungs and multiple organ failure.

None have recovered and three died.


www.washingtonpost.com...

Sheila Morris is almost certain her 13-year-old son Evan got the H1N1 influenza virus at summer camp two weeks ago -- but she'll never know for sure. And neither will the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The Fairfax County mother suspected H1N1, or swine flu, when her son came home with a temperature of 104. An e-mail from the camp director confirming eight cases of H1N1 among campers solidified her hunch.

"That night we called the doctor's office, and she said, 'Sure, it's probably swine flu,' " Morris says. But the doctor did not suggest that Evan come in for testing. "She didn't think the CDC was interested in anything unless you died."


www.walesonline.co.uk...

ONE in three people in South Wales could be struck down with swine flu, experts have claimed.

As the number of people with the virus in Cardiff hit 96 yesterday, public health chiefs told the Echo they believe swine flu will affect 30% of the population and the pandemic will last for 18 months.

Wales is expected to be hit by two waves of the disease, but a vaccination programme could lessen the virus’ impact this winter.



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 05:03 AM
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www.postchronicle.com...

Flu viruses that sparked the three worst pandemics in the last century circulated in their near-complete forms for years before the catastrophes occurred, researchers in Hong Kong and the United States have found.

The H1N1 virus that sparked the Spanish flu of 1918-1919 circulated in swine and humans well before the pandemic started, and it did not come directly from birds as previously thought, they added. Instead, it was probably generated by genetic exchanges between flu viruses from swine and humans.

This contrasts sharply with previous studies which suggested that the H1N1 virus of 1918 was a mutant that jumped direct from birds to human and ended up killing as many as 50 million people.

The findings are considered important because of the lack of studies of the virus in animals before the current outbreak of H1N1. Through understanding the natural history of viruses, monitoring of current viruses can be fine-tuned, the team from the University of Hong Kong and St Jude Children's Hospital in the United States wrote.

Published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study also involved two other pandemic viruses

the H2N2 responsible for the Asian flu of 1957, and the H3N2 which sparked the Hong Kong flu of 1968.


www.alertnet.org...

BANGKOK, July 14 (Reuters) - The Thai capital will close 435 schools for five days to prevent the spread of the H1N1 flu virus, a senior official said on Tuesday.

Thailand has reported 4,057 cases of H1N1, commonly known as swine flu, since mid-May and 24 deaths from the virus, 10 of them people from Bangkok.

"We will conduct a thorough cleaning of the schools during the closure to prevent further outbreaks here," Ponksak Semsan, permanent secretary-general of the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, said in a statement, announcing the closure from Wednesday.



www.alertnet.org...

DAKAR, 14 July 2009 (IRIN) - Should an outbreak of severe pandemic influenza occur in West Africa, most countries in the region would be armed with plans that look good on paper but are untested and underfunded, according to health experts.

"Only a few African countries have started to get ready for the potential disruptions a severe influenza pandemic would cause society," Liviu Vedrasco, West Africa'S pandemic readiness adviser for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), told IRIN.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has confirmed 94,500 cases of H1N1/09 worldwide with 429 deaths as of 7 July. Of these cases, 140 are in Africa, which has not recorded a H1N1/09 death.



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 11:42 AM
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Don't know if you've caught this news but it seems to me there might be another link to the military testing vaccines at the Air Force Academy in Colorado .

www.denverpost.com...



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 12:02 PM
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Scary stuff, I have a feeling the USA is going to get broad sided with this. Most people think its all over. So now Ive got to worry about the vaccine killing me or the flu, great!

So if we take off work and just stay in the house is there still a chance of getting it?



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 12:31 PM
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Ok so they admit they have no idea how many people have it now estimates range into the millions but why are the WHO not releasing any more updates, the last one was July 3rd.

Has it really got that bad already that they are scared mass panic will ensue if they release how widespread it now is and how many have died already.

I just want to see the latest figures, why is it, in this digital age, still so difficult to get any real data - rhetorical question really.



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 01:51 PM
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@johnb


I just want to see the latest figures, why is it, in this digital age, still so difficult to get any real data - rhetorical question really.


It has gone beyond any realistic data acquisition and is now based on mathematical modelling and extrapolation of old-ish data, as the exponential curve trend now kicks in.

Things will now be kept quiet to avoid further economic disruption and panic. When it comes to wealth of the elite over health of their minions, you know which one prevails


@Digital_Reality


So if we take off work and just stay in the house is there still a chance of getting it?

The infections will go through communities in waves of 6-8 weeks. If there are mutations, then the infections will perpetuate depending on population size until it will eventually burn itself out, probably if there aren't enough hosts or it mutates to a less virile strain.

Just avoid public places (if you can) and especially avoid anyone coughing. The virus has a 5-7 day incubation period so you could catch it from someone without knowing.

DO NOT touch any part of your head when your out and about. When back home, wash your hands with disinfectant and change clothes. Try to develop a clean room attitude, so you can contain any bacterial pick-up. Get stocked up with food now, as the more people get infected, the more they'll be touching food in supermarkets as it can live on hard surfaces for ~48hours.

/End rant.

I don't mean to preach but the above is what i'm doing, so HTH. Also, eat an orange a day and a clove of garlic. Prepare to batten down the hatches for winter, if it does indeed turn nasty.



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 02:12 PM
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NatureNews, a good science magazine, has put up a special page relating to A/H1N1, including history, research, and breaking news. It's a very good source with pretty reliable info.

www.nature.com...



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 08:19 PM
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I don't necessarily think its going to be that terrible that everyone needs to stock up on food etc.

To put it simply:

-A ton of people are going to be infected and I mean well more than 50% of US citizens.
-You will most likely be infected
-1/3 of the cases will be severe enough the people will have to seek medical attention
-1/3 of the people who seek medical attention will die.

Take that as you will.

Businesses and schools will have to be shut down for a week or two at the height of the pandemic. The precious NFL and NBA seasons will be affected by fan lock outs of games in hot zone areas (games will be played without fans). The vaccine will not be manditory, but after those who do not get vaccinated see the rate the virus is burning through the unvaccinated public, they will get it as well.

...if it doesnt't mutate.



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 09:19 PM
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DEATH RATES

Writing in the British Medical Journal, Garske and colleagues said current case fatality ratios -- the number of deaths from swine flu divided by the total number of cases -- is only around 0.5 percent. This is similar to the death rate from seasonal influenza, which kills anywhere between 250,000 and 500,000 people globally each year.

But Garske noted this varies greatly from country to country. Unlike seasonal flu, influenza H1N1 is causing severe illness in previously healthy young adults and children.

"Accurately predicting the severity of this swine flu pandemic is a very tricky business, and our research shows that this can only be achieved if data is collected according to well-designed study protocols and analyzed in a more sophisticated way than is frequently being performed at present," Garske said.

"If we fail to get an accurate prediction of severity, we will not be providing healthcare planners, doctors and nurses, with the information that they need to ensure they are best prepared to fight the pandemic as we head into the flu season this autumn."

Garske's team outlined ways to improve estimates, including using individual towns as examples.
www.reuters.com...



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 10:45 PM
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Take a look at this article in today's 'Florida Today': www.floridatoday.com...
1/907140322/1006/news01 -"Swine flu is getting transferred better than we expected." Says it all.

EDIT: Link HERE

[edit on 14-7-2009 by RiotComing]

[edit on 14-7-2009 by RiotComing]



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 10:54 PM
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When I get back from the store, I turn on my ozone machine for 10 min before putting away the groceries. That should kill anything.



posted on Jul, 14 2009 @ 11:50 PM
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Swine flu “service centers” open in Phuket






To combat the spread of the new flu strain, the Phuket Public Health Office (PPHO) has launched three “One Stop Service” (OSS) centers for suspected swine flu cases at Phuket’s three district hospitals





Story Here



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 12:49 PM
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Originally posted by retroviralsounds
I don't necessarily think its going to be that terrible that everyone needs to stock up on food etc.

To put it simply:

-A ton of people are going to be infected and I mean well more than 50% of US citizens.
-You will most likely be infected
-1/3 of the cases will be severe enough the people will have to seek medical attention
-1/3 of the people who seek medical attention will die.


From your numbers, you are guessing at a 5.55% mortality rate. A little high don't you think? Maybe your three's should be turned into fives or sixes, but it's still a not so bad rough estimate.

At 1/5, 1/5 the mortality rate would be 2% & at 1/6 1/6 the mortality rate would be 1.4%. I think this is still quite high based on the current statistics.

This is, as you mentioned, not including a more severe possible (probable?) mutation...



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 01:06 PM
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reply to post by EDteach
 


This report seems misleading. They give a key figure of ~.5% mortality case rate, and then compare this to seasonal influenza. From this they seem to infer that they are about the same relative danger for the global population.

What they fail to include is the fact that many more people will be infected and become cases than regular seasonal influenza. Why is this not mentioned? People have some immunity to seasonal influenza. To my knowledge (or lack there of) nobody has any immunity to this novel flu, at least until they already go through a round of it.



posted on Jul, 15 2009 @ 01:08 PM
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What drives you to think that half the population will be infected?


Originally posted by retroviralsounds
I don't necessarily think its going to be that terrible that everyone needs to stock up on food etc.

To put it simply:

-A ton of people are going to be infected and I mean well more than 50% of US citizens.
-You will most likely be infected
-1/3 of the cases will be severe enough the people will have to seek medical attention
-1/3 of the people who seek medical attention will die.

Take that as you will.

Businesses and schools will have to be shut down for a week or two at the height of the pandemic. The precious NFL and NBA seasons will be affected by fan lock outs of games in hot zone areas (games will be played without fans). The vaccine will not be manditory, but after those who do not get vaccinated see the rate the virus is burning through the unvaccinated public, they will get it as well.

...if it doesnt't mutate.



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