Swine Flu news and updates thread

U.S. Cases

The U.S. will see an increasing number of swine flu patients with more severe symptoms including pneumonia, as well as deaths, as the virus spreads to people with higher health risks, said O#ani, a virology professor at Tohoku University in Sendai. Mexico has seen the highest death toll from swine flu because of its poorer health-care system, he said. -Bloomberg

Originally posted by larphillips
Wow... and they wonder why we don't trust them anymore.

NEW YORK (CNN) -- An assistant principal who died after being hospitalized with the H1N1 virus did have an underlying condition, the New York City's health commissioner said Monday.

But Dr. Thomas Frieden would not discuss the nature of the condition.

www.cnn.com...

Somebody had a message to call the governor's office today....

The actual spread of the virus and the CDC / WHO statistics are apples and oranges at this point. The virus is ahead of them by a factor of 20 to 100 X now.

Kiora,

We're all a bit miffed about why WHO hasn't increased the level to 6. The criteria has been met, that’s obvious, but they are keeping it at 5. For now anyway.

But Why? An upgrade to 6 could prevent deaths surely – governments will take more drastic action, including border controls and minimising gatherings, and it will certainly wake up the average joe….which has got to be a good thing!

Isn’t it?

Although I’m personally hoping a L6 is never needed, I admit to being very curious as to why they’re disregarding their own criteria for THIS particular virus? Ok, going to L6 has its own risks and worries - (panic, financial collapse, scarce resources, loss of personal freedom, etc), so that is definitely a factor…..but surely, going to L6 now can prevent more loss of life.

In mid April when this all broke out information was given freely to the public and WHO was right on the ball so it seemed. Then all of a sudden, nothing. Media black out, suspicious tally's of cases, downplaying severity of cases, terminology of cases being 'mild', suggesting underlying medical conditions, borders not closed, failing to close schools, etc etc. To us it seems they are being very incompetent!

But are they?...


I have been reading this thread every day since it started.

Based on info & intel from this thread, here is my opinion on why they are holding off going to L6.

What if they discovered the true nature of H1N1 a few weeks ago which changed everything. And they aren’t making that public.

What if they realised that containment & preventative measures now are fruitless, so decide to change their game plan.

What if they are downplaying the threat so that people don't panic, that they continue on their lives productively, thus avoiding putting people more at risk and added hardship.

What if they discovered the virus is unstoppable at this stage, because it spreads easily from H2H mostly by touch. Like we've discussed on this thread:

1. It lives easily on surfaces for an unusual period of time (maybe up to 36hrs).
2. It remains unnoticed inside the host for many days without showing symptoms, meanwhile host is infectious.
3. When symptoms start it is ‘mild’ and host remains infectious.
4. Several weeks later host becomes unwell again. This time more serious. In some of the cases fatal. Host remains infectious during this second bout.

What if this thing has been around for several months all over the world, infecting millions of people due to long time between the stages (virus on surfaces, infection of host, delay before first symptoms, mild case of flu, then bad reoccurrence several weeks later).

What if they know containment or prevention or management is fruitless and they are powerless to stop it without a vaccine. Which hasn’t been formulated yet. And if one was ready they know they don’t have enough time to make enough for everyone.

What if they know raising to level 6 at this stage will cause HUGE panic, financial collapse, civil unrest, huge burdens on resources, etc etc. Eg: Why did they tell schools not to close when they find positive cases? Maybe they know many people will be infected anyway so why add panic and loss of income to the mix.

What if they are just trying to maintain calm & order for as long as possible... prevent loss of lives &/or hardship caused as a result.

What if the only thing they can do now is maintain normalcy and order for as long as possible thus giving themselves, agencies, military, governments etc time to prepare for the terrible outcome they are almost certain is going to happen.

What if by maintaining L5, downplaying severity, having a partial media blackout, and maintaining normalcy really IS the best way they know to save as many lives as possible...



edited to add smiley at bottom.

[edit on 18/5/09 by antmar]

Daughters class today had 7 out of 17 student in her class alone out sick plus the teacher. I was at my daughters award ceremony and one kid in her class starts crying , she was so ill and they sent her home.

This school has already tested positive. There are a LOT of kids out sick, but they still do not close it. Her teacher is my neighbors Aunt, and he said she has flu symptoms.

I actually agree that they do need to have a more descriptive criteria to describe what is happening.

The difference between a virus that is Level 6 and has a mortality rate between .01 to .04 is WAY different than a Level 6 with one of .1 or more.

They probably also need to break down areas to reflect their risk factors. Having this virus hit in North America and then spread into Europe and the richest parts of Asia first is going to seriously squew the criteria compared to it hitting first in poorer nations and poorer areas. This isn't being reflected.

I am amazed at human behavior.

Yesterday I got into a heated debate about Swine Flu with my sister who was visiting me in my Manhattan apartment for the weekend. She thought my concern was overblown, and was sure that nothing would come of this virus...even as the reports of the NYC school principal dying as broadcast all over the television.

It seems like people are rebelling against the threat of Swine Flu and are in serious denial. PEOPLE ARE SICK. I had two co-workers today who sounded terrible, and you just shouldn't be that sick in late May, and you can't contribute it to just "allergies".

There is no way to avoid being exposed to this flu if you are in NYC or any big city. There are just too many people not following proper precautions. Washing your hands is useless. Also, sometimes you forget. I talked to a friend earlier about him being violently ill a couple of days ago, shook his hand, and then when I got back to work I put my hand on my face from work-job frustration.

Everyone is sneezing, and a lot of people have moisture in their throats. They all contribute it to allergies.

I know better. I know too much.

I joke with people "It's not Swine Flu. It's only Swine Flu when people start dropping dead all around us." But it's true.

GLTA.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Please take a moment to read Dr. Chan's address, link should be with above thread

She's attempting to set a international agenda via WHO here with the themes of:

1) global meltdown
2) call for universal health care
3) how helpful the Western countries are with everything re: H1N1...(False!)
4) a big lie about "underlying factors" for severe/fatal H1N1 cases (an even bigger lie)

Can we fill in any blanks here?

I thought of something less conspiratorial that she might be doing through this speech: don't let economics allow this virus to spread OR this is my basis for raising the level to 6.

~Any thoughts? I'm interested to hear them

--

reply to post by antmar


Antmar - I like your summary of the situation.

Here is another recent development -

Fears virus and bird flu could mix
2009.05.19 03:26:48 Worldwide

The authorities have confirmed that more than 100 wild birds found dead in the Gengahai region of Qinghai province "died of avian flu", sparking fears that the virus could mix with the A(H1N1) outbreak if it spread. Tests on 121 dead migratory birds in Qinghai on Sunday revealed the carcasses contained the pathogenic bird flu virus, said a statement from the Ministry of Agriculture.

Local authorities have culled nearly 600 poultry in the region, the ministry said. Experts warned of the possibility of the A(H1N1) and H5N1 strains "re-assorting or mutating" in humans or pigs to threaten more lives if the former is allowed to spread. "We cannot ignore the possibility that the strains could re-assort to generate a new type of virus with a high transmission and fatality rate among people," Guan Yi, a professor with the department of microbiology from the University of Hong Kong, said. "Mutation of the bird flu virus with H1N1 would be disastrous," Guan said, adding that checks on the possibility of human-to-human transmission of bird flu was "still necessary in the fight against the H1N1". As of May 6, the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases of H5N1 bird flu in humans worldwide is 423, with a death toll of 258, figures from the World Health Organization showed.

Swine Flu: Latest Coverage
abcnews.go.com...
www.cnn.com...

Transmission of Swine H1N1 In Japan Signals Phase 6
Recombinomics Commentary
14:46 May 18, 2009
www.recombinomics.com...

Flu pattern worries global health experts
Tue May 19, 2009 1:06am EDT
www.reuters.com...

Egyptian girl dies of bird flu virus - agency
www.reuters.com...

Egypt: 71st case of bird flu
18 May 2009
www.worldpoultry.net...

California has 553 swine flu h1n1 cases with 30 hospitalized patients and 2 in critical condition. #swineflu #h1n13 minutes ago from web

Case Reports Of Hospitalized Patients with Influenza A (H1N1) Swine Flu In California During April And May 2009
May 18th 2009 10:14 PM
www.scientificblogging.com...

Swine Flu Spreading Quickly in NYC, Mayor Says
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
www.washingtonpost.com...

Memorial for NYC's 1st swine flu death
57 minutes ago
www.google.com...

Japan closes 4,000 schools over swine flu fears
news.yahoo.com...

No Guidance on How to Rein In the Flu
www.nytimes.com...

Swine flu h1n1 continues to accelerate in Japan this evening. Cases have climbed from 4 Friday to somewhere near 150 today #swineflu #h1n1about 8 hours ago from web

#H1N1 case alert: Zacatecas, Mexico: 1 confirmed dead. Source: Mexican Ministry of Health (Spanish pdf file with map) ..about 6 hours ago from twitterfeed

Maryland Has 33 Confirmed Swine Flu Cases
wjz.com...

Attendance low at Plattsburgh school where swine flu identified
www.pressrepublican.com...

[edit on 5/19/2009 by Hx3_1963]

ok - here is some data regarding H1N1 confirmed and probable infections and the percentage of people in california hospitalized.

As of May 17, 2009, 553 novel influenza A (H1N1) cases, including 333 confirmed and 220 probable cases, had been reported in 32 of 61 local health jurisdictions in California. Of the 553 patients, 30 have been hospitalized. No fatal cases associated with novel influenza A (H1N1) infection had been reported in California. This report summarizes the 30 hospitalized cases as of May 17, including a detailed description of four cases that illustrate the spectrum of illness severity and underlying risk factors. This preliminary overview indicates that, although the majority of hospitalized persons infected with novel influenza A (H1N1) recovered without complications, certain patients had severe and prolonged disease. All hospitalized patients with novel influenza A (H1N1) infection should be monitored carefully and treated with antiviral therapy, including patients who seek care >48 hours after illness onset (4,5).

Disturbing data continues -

The largest number of patients, (15 [50%]) resided in San Diego and Imperial counties. Of the 26 patients for whom information on ethnicity was available, 17 (65%) were Hispanic. Ages of the 30 patients ranged from 27 days to 89 years, with a median age of 27.5 years; 21 (70%) were female. Four (13%) patients had traveled to Mexico in the 7 days before onset of illness. None of the 30 patients reported exposure to swine or a known confirmed case of novel influenza A (H1N1) infection.
The most common admission diagnoses were pneumonia and dehydration. Nineteen patients (64%) had underlying medical conditions; the most common were chronic lung disease (e.g., asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), conditions associated with immunosuppresion, chronic cardiac disease (e.g., congenital heart disease and coronary artery disease), diabetes, and obesity. The most common symptoms were fever, cough, vomiting, and shortness of breath; diarrhea was uncommon. Of the 25 patients who had chest radiographs, 15 (60%) had abnormalities suggestive of pneumonia, including 10 with multilobar infiltrates and five with unilobar infiltrates. Six patients were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), and four required mechanical ventilation. Five patients were pregnant. Two of these developed complications, including spontaneous abortion and premature rupture of the membranes; the fetuses were at 13 and 35 weeks gestation, respectively.

Link to report

reply to post by Hx3_1963

It is really worrying that so many people have died from Bird Flu in Egypt. 27 deaths in 72 cases. Here's hoping that these two don't meet any time soon.

reply to post by Hx3_1963


Hey Hx3, thought you'd gone AWOL for a while there, good to see you back



Timeline: Tracking the Spread of Swine Flu
A Summary of the Major Developments in the H1N1 Outbreak

Full Article Here


Tenth Scottish case of swine flu

A 22-year-old woman from the Greenock area has been confirmed as Scotland's tenth case of swine flu.

Full Article Here




Japan closes 4,000 schools? @ their way of handling this, other governments should take note.

Mask-wearing de rigeur as flu spreads in Japan
Tue May 19, 2009 5:43am BST

TOKYO (Reuters) - It was everywhere in western Japan on Tuesday and is showing signs of spreading to heavily populated Tokyo -- not the new H1N1 flu virus, but the wearing of surgical face masks.

Full Article Here

YouTube Clip Fuels Outcry At Egypt Pig Cull
11:59am UK, Monday May 18, 2009

A YouTube video clip showing pigs being culled in Egypt as part of swine flu measures has caused outrage over the barbaric method of slaughter.

Full Article Here

# Japan reporting cases of swine flu up to 173 overnight from around 130 yesterday #swineflu #h1n13 minutes ago from web

#H1N1 case alert: Zacatecas, Mexico: 1 confirmed dead. Source: Mexican Ministry of Health (Spanish pdf file with map) ..about 6 hours ago from twitterfeed

# Mexico reporting swine flu cases reach 3646 (3103) and deaths 70 (68) #swineflu #h1n1half a minute ago from web

# Canada reporting 520 cases of swine flu h1n1, up from 496 last time #swineflu #h1n14 minutes ago from web

I had half of this posted today, when my computer decided to send all to cyberspace! ugh!! So I'll give it another shot. This is an attempt to fill in the missing pieces of the puzzle around the "novel" H1N1. if you have already seen or read this material, then I apologize for wasting your time; if this information is new to you and gives you a fresh direction to take, then as always please share. I thought about making this a thread, but really don't want to deal with all the skeptics out there. However, if you think what I present here has merit and will help spread the word, then by all means I will do just that. Please remember this is my own theory, and if it proves to be true, yes it is a huge conspiracy but more importantly we are in bigger trouble than we thought.

While reading about the death of the Assistant Principle in Queens last night, I noticed something that really struck me as odd. It was precisely this.

Mr. Wiener, 55, had been “overwhelmed” by the illness, despite beginning a course of treatment with an experimental drug, Ribavirin, after he failed to respond to other antiviral drugs, according to Ole Pedersen, a spokesman for Flushing Hospital Medical Center, where Mr. Wiener had been a patient since Wednesday.

link:[www.nytimes.com...]

"experimental drug Ribavirin" What exactly is Ribavirin and why was he treated with it?

Ribavirin (brand names: Copegus, Rebetol, Ribasphere, Vilona and Virazole) is an anti-viral drug indicated for severe RSV infection (individually), hepatitis C infection (used in conjunction with peginterferon alfa-2b or peginterferon alfa-2a) and other viral infections.

" hepatitis C infection (used in conjunction with peginterferon alfa-2b or peginterferon alfa-2a) and other viral infections."

Hepatitis C,? Interesting. I responded to a post that stated the victim went to bed and woke with "confusion." Because the media had already released the fact that he was having trouble with his liver, I believed the marked confusion was due to a high Ammonia level due to liver toxicity which is indicative of liver failure. More about Ribavirin:

It is active against a number of DNA and RNA viruses. It is a member of the nucleoside antimetabolite drugs that interfere with duplication of viral genetic material. Though not effective against all viruses, ribavirin is remarkable as a small molecule for its wide range of activity, including important activities against influenzas, flaviviruses and agents of many viral hemorrhagic fevers.

Other interactions with nucleoside antivirals for HIV should be considered when HIV/AIDS patients use ribavirin to treat hepatitis C.

There it is again, "used to treat hepatitis C."

Experimental data indicate that ribavirin may have useful activity against many viruses of interest, including avian influenza, hepatitis B, polio, measles, Canine distemper[8] and smallpox. Ribavirin is the only known treatment for a variety of viral hemorrhagic fevers, including Lassa fever, Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever, and Hantavirus infection. Ribavirin is active in a hamster model of yellow fever, a finding which is not surprising, given the familial relationship of yellow fever AND HEPATITIS C as flaviviridae.

Finally, ribavirin is known to enhance host T-cell-mediated immunity against viral infection through helping to switch the host T-cell phenotype from type 2 to type 1. This may explain ribavirin's antiviral activity against some viruses such as HEPATITIS C, at doses which do not clearly interfere with replication of the virus when used without INTERFERON.

So now that is Ribavirin and Interferon, the same 2 drugs used to treat Mr. Wiener before he passed.

Adverse effects

Ribavirin is not substantially incorporated into DNA, but does have a dose-dependent inhibiting effect on DNA synthesis, as well as having other effects on gene-expression. Possibly for these reasons, significant teratogenic effects have been noted in all non-primate animal species on which ribavirin has been tested. Ribavirin did not produce birth defects in baboons,[bold] but this should not be an indication that it is safe in humans.[/bold]

link:[en.wikipedia.org...]

Not safe in humans? That is a major red flag for me!

Now, let's look at Interferon,

The interferons are a family of naturally occur-ring proteins with nonspecific regulatory activity. These cytokines are secreted by many mammalian cells and influence cell growth and differentiation, modulate the immune response and inhibit the replication of a number of viruses including hepatitis B and C. Although the antiviral, immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory properties of interferon-a are thought to contribute towards its beneficial effects in patients with CHR]ONIC hepatitis C, the exact mechanism of action of this cytokine in hepatitis C has yet to be established.. [20] The mechanisms of action of interferon-a have been reviewed in detail elsewhere; [21-23] this section therefore provides a brief overview of its putative antiviral activity in patients with CHRONIC HEPATITIS C. Unlike many anti-HIV drugs, which target the functions of HIV proteins, the antiviral activity of interferon-a is achieved by its ability to alter interactions between the host and virus in a complex man-ner.

Finally, a pattern is beginning to emerge. This time however it is not just hepatitis C but CHRONIC!! The article is above my area of study but what I am guessing is by using Interferon, you are trying to force certain gene mutations within the host in hopes that it will either burn itself out or stop attacking the victim. Again just a guess.

link:[www.natap.org...]

Trust me the plot thickens. Unfortunately, I have to stop there and post the conclusion tomorrow.

Thank you for your patience.

Pax






[edit on 19-5-2009 by paxnatus]

# Mexico reporting swine flu cases reach 3646 (3103) and deaths 70 (68) #swineflu #h1n16 minutes ago from web

# These announcements suggest new non-US cases of swine flu will be around 650 with at least 2 more deaths in line with trend #swineflu #h1n13 minutes ago from web

I've been fighting this same UR bug off and on but tonight I started feeling very, very bad. Instantly I had a sore throat, felt cold, temp 1 degree low, headache, coughing worse and everything tastes funny. I felt like a truck had hit me and went straight to bed and crashed until just now. I can't even get this post out, I kept passing out writing this and finally wrapped it up an hour later and published.

I still feel cold but I'm sweating. I'm going to try and eat some soup (I just made fresh broccoli and cauliflower soups yesterday) and see how it goes.

reply to post by ecoparity
Hmmm...not good

A 59-year-old German tourist died in Thailand on Monday after developing high fever during her visit #swineflu #h1n12 minutes ago from web

N.Y. Swine Flu Death Frightens Local Parents
05/18/09 4:14 pm
www.wjla.com...

China reports suspected case of A/H1N1 influenza in Tibet
2009-05-19 11:23:00
news.xinhuanet.com...

AP reporter quarantined in China after Cancun stop
news.yahoo.com...

Greece confirms first H1N1 flu case
www.reuters.com...

Update 43 - Influenza A (H1N1) Swine Flu
healthconnection.co.nz...

[edit on 5/19/2009 by Hx3_1963]

Tourist dies, possibly of swine flu

By: BangkokPost.com
Published: 19/05/2009 at 11:38 AM

A German woman who was under close watch for possible swine flu infection after she arrived in Thailand has died, Public Health spokesperson Suphan Srithamma said on Tuesday.

A lab test would reveal within 24 hours whether she died of swine flu, Dr Suphan said.

www.bangkokpost.com...


thailand

OH crap H3 you beat me to it ... oh well thats life


[edit on 19/5/09 by alysha.angel]