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Swine Flu news and updates thread

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posted on May, 13 2009 @ 11:07 AM
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Wednesday, May 13, 2009 8:37 AM
Updated: Wednesday, May 13, 2009 11:15 AM

...There are now eight confirmed cases of the H1N1 virus in Ohio, including four in Franklin County and one case in each of Butler, Holmes, Lorain and Portage counties.

Stay with 10TV News and 10TV.com for continuing coverage.
www.10tv.com...




posted on May, 13 2009 @ 11:11 AM
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reply to post by Hazelnut
 


make that 11


US, Ohio: Two New Cases of Influenza A (H1N1) Brings State Total to 11. #swineflu
about 1 hour ago from web



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 11:55 AM
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A bit more on the three new UK cases, including another on The Rock


news.bbc.co.uk...

Three more people in England have tested positive for swine flu, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the UK to 71.

The cases involve one adult and one child from London, while a second pupil at Castle View School, Canvey Island, Essex, has become infected.

The Health Protection Agency said they all picked up the H1N1 virus through contact with people already diagnosed.

Some 339 suspected cases remain under investigation in the UK. The World Health Organisation said on Tuesday that a third of the global population could become infected by swine flu.


So that's little over two billion could be infected. Going by the official numbers, what's the latest mortality rate?



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 12:07 PM
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3 confirmed cases in Sarasota FL...source is spouse that works at local news station, I think they will be doing a story on the news tonight.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 12:12 PM
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Paragraph from a document US government sent to state governors on how states are to prepare for a pandemic:

Communication During a Pandemic

Public education and communication strategies are vital to
mounting an eff ective pandemic response. The role private
citizens play in supporting crisis response and recovery ac-
tivities will be influenced largely by the information and mes-
sages they receive from their community leaders.
Disease outbreaks frequently are marked by uncertainty, con-
fusion, and a sense of urgency. In the absence of clear, effec-
tive communication, government offi cials at every level can
perpetuate fear unintentionally, undermine public trust, and
inspire counterproductive actions. A fearful public will be
wary of cooperation if information is frequently withheld, if
messages are ambiguous, or if public statements contradict
other public notices.
Given accurate, candid, timely, and trusted information—
starting before a pandemic outbreak—citizens can appreciate
better how their self-interest generally aligns with the pub-
lic interest—protecting public health—and thus how their
actions can help control the spread of disease. An engaged
public with trust in its leadership will be more likely to sup-
port exposure control efforts and contribute to a more rapid
resolution of a crisis.
www.nga.org/Files/pdf/0607PANDEMICPRIMER.PDF


This I believe is why we are all still here. We do not feel that we are being given "accurate, candid, timely, and trusted information". The policies of WHO and the CDC are creating fear and increasing the risk of citizens contracting the virus by a lack of clear information. Citizens, in general I believe, will support the government in it's efforts, if we feel we can trust them.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 12:14 PM
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reply to post by Muppetus Galacticus
 


Doing calculations with the official numbers from wikipedia (which the WHO will confirm in their next update, maybe less cases but 65 deaths)

Cases 6,483 and 65 deaths, we get a CFR of pretty much exactly 1%.

However if we take into account the other 100 probable deaths and add that onto 65 to make 165 we get a CFR of 2.54%.

I would say the real CFR will be in between these values as there has definetely been more deaths than 65 although the chances that all 100 additional suspected deaths being all H1N1 are quite low.


[edit on 13-5-2009 by jonny2410]



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 12:24 PM
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I think we could reliably use a 1.4% mortality rate but I think using an overall infection rate of 33% is too high. In under developed nations infections will be very high. Those are the variables that will swing numbers upwards, however low exposure so far is very good in those parts of the world. If it stays in mostly developed society it will not increase much above 1.4% and around 25% overall infection.( all from me, and i cannot back up anything i just wrote but I am probably right.)



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 12:28 PM
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reply to post by habfan1968
 


thing that makes me worry is that its spreading so fast currently, about a 30% increase in cases each day and we are in the summer.
In the winter (and autumn) flu spreads much faster so its going to get a whole lot worse if its still around then (i hope not).



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 12:50 PM
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Don't know if this has made it here yet or not, but Belgium has confirmed its first case.

www.breitbart.com...



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 12:55 PM
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The so feared outbrake of the H1N1 virus in the southern hemisphere is just about to start. It's just a matter of time. See the latest news:

_Argentina: Casos sospechosos de gripe en Argentina aumentaron a 139 (139 suspected cases, according to Argentinian National News Agency "www.derf.com.ar") and 1 confirmed infection according to WHO

_Brazil: 8 confirmed cases according to WHO and 37 suspected cases (www.uol.com.br and www.saude.gov.br)

_New Zeland: Seven confirmed cases of Influenza A (H1N1) and 12 probable cases – unchanged since Saturday 9/5, according to NZ Ministry of Health.

_Australia: 1 infection confirmed and, surpreendently, I could't find anything about the number of suspected cases nationwide, only the info that are 15 suspected cases in the state of New South Wales (www.theage.com.au). There's clearly a black out on the subject in all australian media.

What's very intriguing is the delay in the confirmation of the suspected cases by these countries health authorities. It seems they are purposedly being very very slow.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 02:07 PM
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Finally state government health workers are speaking out about the confusing statements coming from WHO and the CDC. I imagine we will see more of these types of blogs as the infection rate/deaths escalate.


Nevertheless, I struggle with the abrupt changes from U.S. Health and Human Services in its response to this H1N1 flu virus by making a decision not to follow the pandemic alert levels (which they created their own planning around, and encouraged us to also plan around). I struggle with the fact scientists and the WHO have not yet determined a way to grade this virus’ severity. Both of these facts leave me with a place for doubt to grow. I wonder if I, who am very familiar with the topic of influenza, have doubts, then what is the average Coloradan thinking about all of the variety of information out there? This is the other reason I care.


Be Ready Be Healthy Be Informed

[edit on 13-5-2009 by lunieri]



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 02:18 PM
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Originally posted by Cloudsinthesky

Computational quantitative projections for H1N1 flu dynamics in the United States



The following maps show the projected number of cases in the United States at the county level. The range of numbers represent the most likely outcome according to our model, a confidence interval of 90% (see below for explanation). This is a worst case scenario, in which no containment measures are taken to mitigate the spread. We used the confirmed cases as of May 6th for calibration and project from there on.



Because we adjust our simulations every 24–48 hours, our projections are subject to changes. At the moment our model projects a probable range of 6600–7900 by May 17, 2009 in United States.


Click on the link to view map........click on map to put in motion.....interesting

rocs.northwestern.edu...




posted on May, 13 2009 @ 02:19 PM
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Originally posted by Cloudsinthesky
Swine Flu Smoking Gun? CDC was Combining Flu Viruses in 2004


But here’s the potential smoking gun, the facts that suggest a potential source of the pandemic could be CDC labs. And at the very least, this possibility deserves thoughtful examination and research. The University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) is hardly a place most Americans have heard about and, apparently, the Center’s web site has news the MSM isn’t familiar with, either. But information they published years ago has now taken on an urgent importance. CIDRAP, along with the Canadian newspaper Canadian Press (CP), revealed back in 2004 that the CDC was launching experiments designed to mix the H5N1 (avian) virus and human flu viruses. The goal was to find out how likely it was such a “reassortant” virus would emerge and just how dangerous it might be. Of course, it’s logical to wonder if they also worked with the addition of a swine flu virus, too.



Here’s some background from the five-year-old report by the University of Minnesota research center: “One of the worst fears of infectious disease experts is that the H5N1 avian influenza virus now circulating in parts of Asia will combine with a human-adapted flu virus to create a deadly new flu virus that could spread around the world. That could happen, scientists predict, if someone who is already infected with an ordinary flu virus contracts the avian virus at the same time. The avian virus has already caused at least 48 confirmed human illness cases in Asia, of which 35 have been fatal. The virus has shown little ability to spread from person to person, but the fear is that a hybrid could combine the killing power of the avian virus with the transmissibility of human flu viruses. Now, rather than waiting to see if nature spawns such a hybrid, US scientists are planning to try to breed one themselves — in the name of preparedness.”



And CDC officials actually confirmed the government had plans for the research. The CIDRAP News folks did a great job covering this important issue, which was apparently mostly ignored by the MSM back in 2004, and CIDRAP News wrote to the CDC for information. This e-mail produced an answer from CDC spokesman David Daigle who admitted the CDC was working on the project in two ways. “One is to infect cells in a laboratory tissue culture with H5N1 and human flu viruses at the same time and then watch to see if they mix. For the human virus, investigators will use A (H3N2), the strain that has caused most human flu cases in recent years,” the CIDRAP story stated. This co-infection approach was described as slow and labor-intensive. However, it was a way to produce a new virus that appeared to be closer to what develops in nature.



There was another, faster way CDC scientists could create the mix, too. Called reverse genetics, it involves piecing together a new virus with genes from the H5N1 and H3N2 viruses. Reverse genetics had already been used successfully to create H5N1 candidate vaccines in several laboratories, the CDC’s Daigle wrote. “Any viable viruses that emerge from these processes will be seeded into animals that are considered good models for testing how flu viruses behave in humans… The aim will be to observe whether the animals get sick and whether infected animals can infect others,” he revealed in his e-mail.



What’s more, the CP reported the CDC had already made hybrid viruses with H5N1 samples isolated from patients in Hong Kong in 1997, when there was the first outbreak of that virus, dubbed the “Hong Kong flu”. It is not clear if the results of that research were ever published. Back in 2004, Dr. Nancy Cox, then head of the CDC’s influenza branch, would tell the CP only: “Some gene combinations could be produced and others could not.” The CP’s report noted that the World Health Organization (WHO) had been “pleading” for laboratories to do this blending-of-viruses research. The reason? If successful, these flu mixes would back up WHO’s warnings about the possibility of a flu pandemic. In fact, Klaus Stohr, head of the WHO’s global flu program at the time, told the CP that if the experiments were successful in producing highly transmissible and pathogenic viruses, the agency would be even more worried — but if labs couldn’t create these mixed flu viruses, then the agency might have to ratchet down its level of concern.



The 2004 CIDRAP News report addressed the obvious risks of manufacturing viruses in labs that, if released, could potentially spark a pandemic. However, the CDC’s Daigle assured the Minnesota research group the virus melding would be done in a biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) laboratory. “We recognize that there is concern by some over this type of work. This concern may be heightened by reports of recent lab exposures in other lab facilities,” he told CIDRAP. “But CDC has an incredible record in lab safety and is taking very strict precautions.”

Five years later, we must ask more questions. Were those safety measures enough? Was the CDC creating or testing any of these virus mixes in or near Mexico? What other potentially deadly virus combinations has the US government created? Don’t US citizens, as taxpayers who funded these experiments, have a right to know? And for all the residents of planet earth faced with a potentially deadly global epidemic, isn’t it time for the truth?


All three references to this article listed below have been removed or the link is now broken......... Some of the information in the article I have seen in other articles........I will attempt to locate the missing references below......


For more information: “New flu is a genetic mix”, www.reuters.com...

“CDC to mix avian, flu viruses”, www.cidrap.umn.edu...

“CDC to conduct avian flu pandemic experiements”, www.ctv.ca...


www.scribd.com...


[edit on 13-5-2009 by Cloudsinthesky]



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 02:22 PM
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Just posting what I posted on the other thread.....


Some more interesting reading


March 2, Reuters – (National) Resistance to flu drug widespread in U.S. – study. Virtually all cases of the most common strain of flu circulating in the United States now resist the main drug used to treat it, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Monday. CDC researchers said 98 percent of all flu samples from the H1N1 strain were resistant to Roche AG’s Tamiflu, a pill that can both treat flu and prevent infection. Four patients infected with the resistant strain have died, including two children. This year, H1N1 is the most common strain of flu in the United States, although the flu season is a mild one so far, and still below the levels considered an epidemic.


uk.reuters.com...




posted on May, 13 2009 @ 02:55 PM
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reply to post by nanbei
 


I don't think Australia is having a black out at all. I'm actually from there and have been following it very closely. You have to remember, very very few Australians ever go to Mexico...it's a long way away, and we have many other closer beach destinations we can go to.

I think Australia has dealt with it admirably...they issued a travel warning immediately, enacted emergency legislation which allows them to quarantine the infected, took immediate pre-cautionary steps at the airport, including questionaires for incoming passengers....traced every passenger or every flight with every possibly infected person. And when the Alert went to Level 5, they told Australians to stock their pantries with 2 weeks worth of supplies.

There are not many flights each day from North America to Australia (most air traffic is from asia). I think though as it gets colder there, it's inevitable that they will get more infections, but it seems to me that so far, they've been very frank and honest with the people there and taken far more aggressive steps to control it than has occurred here in Canada, where they took an "it's already here and mild so why bother" approach.

ETA...the reason I think it's not getting much press at the moment, is because it is sooo far away from them and they probably barely think about it there at the moment, whereas here it is on our doorsteps....it got a lot of coverage in the early days.

[edit on 13-5-2009 by phoenixs1]



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 02:55 PM
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From the recombinomics website. The entire article is at www.recombinomics.com...

The presence of avian PB2 may offer a selective advantage over the summer, when seasonal flu falls to barely detectable levels. However, the swine H1N1 that moves south in the upcoming months will be growing under colder conditions, which may favor the acquisition of E627K though reassortment or recombination. This change could create a more virulent H1N1 in the fall in the northern hemisphere.

Thus, the swine H1N1 may be launching a two virus strategy. The H1N1 with avian PB2 will dominate in the northern hemisphere over the summer, while the H1N1 in the southern hemisphere will acquire E627K and establish dominance during the winter months.

Thus, the spread of H1N1 is in high gear, as WHO debates if a swine H1N1 is a swine H1N1 and if a pandemic at phase 6 is really at phase 6.

Swine H1N1 doesn't read WHO press releases.

It just gains transmission efficiencies via homologous recombination.



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 03:02 PM
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Should a 1918 like pandemic occur DoD will be impacted more severely than the civilian community
1918 DoD mortality rate was twice that of the general civilian community and infections rates often exceeded 50%
DoD will also have multiple tasks to include National Defense, care of our beneficiary population and Civil Support
Given these limitations, medical assistance is possible but not likely.

Situational Standards of Care Workshop
Department of Defense
March 12, 2009



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 03:13 PM
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Geneva / 12/05/09 / 12:55
The World Health Organization raised the tally of confirmed human cases of swine flu to 5,251 in 30 countries.

Mexico has 2.059 cases, including 56 deaths.

The United States has reported 2,600 laboratory-confirmed cases, including three deaths.

Canada has 330 cases, including one death, while Costa Rica has eight cases, including one death.

Spain has 95 cases, Britain 55, Panama 16, France 13, Germany 12, Italy nine, Brazil eight, Israel and New Zealand seven each, and Japan and El Salvador four each. South Korea, Netherlands and Colombia have three each. Sweden and Norway have two each. China, Hong Kong, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Denmark, Guatemala, Ireland, Poland, Portugal and Switzerland have one each. /end/



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 03:59 PM
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Originally posted by Muppetus Galacticus

So that's little over two billion could be infected. Going by the official numbers, what's the latest mortality rate?


Kiora Muppet,

Using the WHO data, the 'official' mortality rate for 13/05 would be 1.06%

(Deaths = 61 / Confirmed = 5728)

Ant



posted on May, 13 2009 @ 04:08 PM
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Originally posted by jonny2410
reply to post by habfan1968
 


thing that makes me worry is that its spreading so fast currently, about a 30% increase in cases each day and we are in the summer.
In the winter (and autumn) flu spreads much faster so its going to get a whole lot worse if its still around then (i hope not).


Kiora Jonny,

The average increase of confirmed cases per day (according to the WHO data) over the last 16 days is 32.9%.

The individual percentage increases per day for confirmed cases are:

28/04 - 43.8%
29/04 - 41.0%
30/04 - 73.6%
01/05 - 42.8%
02/05 - 79.3%
03/05 - 36.5%
04/05 - 20.8%
05/05 - 37.3%
06/05 - 27.0%
07/05 - 25.3%
08/05 - 5.4%
09/05 - 37.6%
10/05 - 27.3%
11/05 - 7.2%
12/05 - 11.9%
13/05 - 9.1%


While I'm adding this sort of info, may as well give the info for deaths as well:

The average increase of deaths per day (according to the WHO data) over the last 16 days is 15.8%.

The individual percentage increases per day for deaths are:

28/04 - 0.0%
29/04 - 14.3%
30/04 - 0.0%
01/05 - 25.0%
02/05 - 70.0%
03/05 - 17.6%
04/05 - 30.0%
05/05 - 15.4%
06/05 - 3.3%
07/05 - 41.9%
08/05 - 0.0%
09/05 - 9.1%
10/05 - 2.1%
11/05 - 8.2%
12/05 - 15.1%
13/05 - 0.0%

You can see the offical WHO numbers of confirmed and deaths for each day here

Ant




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