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Three more people in England have tested positive for swine flu, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the UK to 71.
The cases involve one adult and one child from London, while a second pupil at Castle View School, Canvey Island, Essex, has become infected.
The Health Protection Agency said they all picked up the H1N1 virus through contact with people already diagnosed.
Some 339 suspected cases remain under investigation in the UK. The World Health Organisation said on Tuesday that a third of the global population could become infected by swine flu.
Nevertheless, I struggle with the abrupt changes from U.S. Health and Human Services in its response to this H1N1 flu virus by making a decision not to follow the pandemic alert levels (which they created their own planning around, and encouraged us to also plan around). I struggle with the fact scientists and the WHO have not yet determined a way to grade this virus’ severity. Both of these facts leave me with a place for doubt to grow. I wonder if I, who am very familiar with the topic of influenza, have doubts, then what is the average Coloradan thinking about all of the variety of information out there? This is the other reason I care.
Originally posted by Cloudsinthesky
Computational quantitative projections for H1N1 flu dynamics in the United States
The following maps show the projected number of cases in the United States at the county level. The range of numbers represent the most likely outcome according to our model, a confidence interval of 90% (see below for explanation). This is a worst case scenario, in which no containment measures are taken to mitigate the spread. We used the confirmed cases as of May 6th for calibration and project from there on.
Because we adjust our simulations every 24–48 hours, our projections are subject to changes. At the moment our model projects a probable range of 6600–7900 by May 17, 2009 in United States.
Click on the link to view map........click on map to put in motion.....interesting
Originally posted by Cloudsinthesky
Swine Flu Smoking Gun? CDC was Combining Flu Viruses in 2004
But here’s the potential smoking gun, the facts that suggest a potential source of the pandemic could be CDC labs. And at the very least, this possibility deserves thoughtful examination and research. The University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) is hardly a place most Americans have heard about and, apparently, the Center’s web site has news the MSM isn’t familiar with, either. But information they published years ago has now taken on an urgent importance. CIDRAP, along with the Canadian newspaper Canadian Press (CP), revealed back in 2004 that the CDC was launching experiments designed to mix the H5N1 (avian) virus and human flu viruses. The goal was to find out how likely it was such a “reassortant” virus would emerge and just how dangerous it might be. Of course, it’s logical to wonder if they also worked with the addition of a swine flu virus, too.
Here’s some background from the five-year-old report by the University of Minnesota research center: “One of the worst fears of infectious disease experts is that the H5N1 avian influenza virus now circulating in parts of Asia will combine with a human-adapted flu virus to create a deadly new flu virus that could spread around the world. That could happen, scientists predict, if someone who is already infected with an ordinary flu virus contracts the avian virus at the same time. The avian virus has already caused at least 48 confirmed human illness cases in Asia, of which 35 have been fatal. The virus has shown little ability to spread from person to person, but the fear is that a hybrid could combine the killing power of the avian virus with the transmissibility of human flu viruses. Now, rather than waiting to see if nature spawns such a hybrid, US scientists are planning to try to breed one themselves — in the name of preparedness.”
And CDC officials actually confirmed the government had plans for the research. The CIDRAP News folks did a great job covering this important issue, which was apparently mostly ignored by the MSM back in 2004, and CIDRAP News wrote to the CDC for information. This e-mail produced an answer from CDC spokesman David Daigle who admitted the CDC was working on the project in two ways. “One is to infect cells in a laboratory tissue culture with H5N1 and human flu viruses at the same time and then watch to see if they mix. For the human virus, investigators will use A (H3N2), the strain that has caused most human flu cases in recent years,” the CIDRAP story stated. This co-infection approach was described as slow and labor-intensive. However, it was a way to produce a new virus that appeared to be closer to what develops in nature.
There was another, faster way CDC scientists could create the mix, too. Called reverse genetics, it involves piecing together a new virus with genes from the H5N1 and H3N2 viruses. Reverse genetics had already been used successfully to create H5N1 candidate vaccines in several laboratories, the CDC’s Daigle wrote. “Any viable viruses that emerge from these processes will be seeded into animals that are considered good models for testing how flu viruses behave in humans… The aim will be to observe whether the animals get sick and whether infected animals can infect others,” he revealed in his e-mail.
What’s more, the CP reported the CDC had already made hybrid viruses with H5N1 samples isolated from patients in Hong Kong in 1997, when there was the first outbreak of that virus, dubbed the “Hong Kong flu”. It is not clear if the results of that research were ever published. Back in 2004, Dr. Nancy Cox, then head of the CDC’s influenza branch, would tell the CP only: “Some gene combinations could be produced and others could not.” The CP’s report noted that the World Health Organization (WHO) had been “pleading” for laboratories to do this blending-of-viruses research. The reason? If successful, these flu mixes would back up WHO’s warnings about the possibility of a flu pandemic. In fact, Klaus Stohr, head of the WHO’s global flu program at the time, told the CP that if the experiments were successful in producing highly transmissible and pathogenic viruses, the agency would be even more worried — but if labs couldn’t create these mixed flu viruses, then the agency might have to ratchet down its level of concern.
The 2004 CIDRAP News report addressed the obvious risks of manufacturing viruses in labs that, if released, could potentially spark a pandemic. However, the CDC’s Daigle assured the Minnesota research group the virus melding would be done in a biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) laboratory. “We recognize that there is concern by some over this type of work. This concern may be heightened by reports of recent lab exposures in other lab facilities,” he told CIDRAP. “But CDC has an incredible record in lab safety and is taking very strict precautions.”
Five years later, we must ask more questions. Were those safety measures enough? Was the CDC creating or testing any of these virus mixes in or near Mexico? What other potentially deadly virus combinations has the US government created? Don’t US citizens, as taxpayers who funded these experiments, have a right to know? And for all the residents of planet earth faced with a potentially deadly global epidemic, isn’t it time for the truth?
All three references to this article listed below have been removed or the link is now broken......... Some of the information in the article I have seen in other articles........I will attempt to locate the missing references below......
For more information: “New flu is a genetic mix”, www.reuters.com...…
“CDC to mix avian, flu viruses”, www.cidrap.umn.edu...…
“CDC to conduct avian flu pandemic experiements”, www.ctv.ca...…
[edit on 13-5-2009 by Cloudsinthesky]
March 2, Reuters – (National) Resistance to flu drug widespread in U.S. – study. Virtually all cases of the most common strain of flu circulating in the United States now resist the main drug used to treat it, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on Monday. CDC researchers said 98 percent of all flu samples from the H1N1 strain were resistant to Roche AG’s Tamiflu, a pill that can both treat flu and prevent infection. Four patients infected with the resistant strain have died, including two children. This year, H1N1 is the most common strain of flu in the United States, although the flu season is a mild one so far, and still below the levels considered an epidemic.
Originally posted by Muppetus Galacticus
So that's little over two billion could be infected. Going by the official numbers, what's the latest mortality rate?
Originally posted by jonny2410
reply to post by habfan1968
thing that makes me worry is that its spreading so fast currently, about a 30% increase in cases each day and we are in the summer.
In the winter (and autumn) flu spreads much faster so its going to get a whole lot worse if its still around then (i hope not).