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Swine Flu news and updates thread

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posted on May, 10 2009 @ 01:45 AM
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reply to post by lunieri
 
Nice find


I've been looking for this, but, get side tracked easily...

I've taken the liberty of expanding on some key points mentioned in the PFD

Pandemic Influenza Preparation and Response:
A Citizen’s Guide:
New 2009 H1N1 Update
Version 2.0
May, 2009

instedd.org...
(per lunieri)


~
Projections expect 253,000 people to die in California alone, and 10,713,000 people are expected to fall ill in that state.

~
Overview:

• Communities will be affected simultaneously

• At least 30% of the overall population may become infected in a severe pandemic

• Absenteeism could be upward of 50% in a severe pandemic

• A pandemic is likely to last for 12 to 18 months

• Communities could be affected by several waves lasting 6 to 8 weeks each

• Vaccines and antiviral drugs for pandemic influenza will be in short supply, may be of limited effectiveness, and will likely not be available to most communities

• Most of the ill may wish to seek medical care

• All health care systems will be overwhelmed

• Health facilities are unlikely to be available to most, and may be inadvisable to enter owing to increased chances of exposure to the virus

• People and communities will likely be on their own without the help of mutual aid from other communities, hospitals, or other public services

Who will get sick?

• The percentage of infected individuals will most likely be 30% of the overall population during a severe pandemic.

• Illness rates may be highest among school-aged children (40%) and decline with age. An average of 20% of working adults will become ill during a community outbreak.

• All it takes is for one infected person to get on an airplane and fly into the next country to start the spread of the illness.

Will there be enough health care providers?

Should a pandemic occur on the 1918 scale, all medical systems will be overwhelmed.

Current levels of emergency, hospital, and outpatient care will not be available owing to insufficient numbers of beds, ventilators, medical supplies, and personnel (absenteeism in health care personnel is expected to meet or exceed that of the general population).

Long-term care and skilled nursing facilities, among others, will also be affected.

What will happen when people die?

The Medical Examiner’s Office, morgues, and funeral homes will not have the resources to handle the high number of deaths, which in a severe pandemic is estimated to be approximately 2-5% of those infected.

The dead will need to be cared for at home until they are able to be picked up.

What will happen to my community?

Rates of absenteeism at work will soar during peak periods of a pandemic.

This will likely cause significant disruption of public and privately owned
critical infrastructure including transportation, commerce, utilities, public safety, and communications.
PDF at Link...


Mexico raises its swine flu toll to 48
May 10, 2009 02:06am
www.news.com.au...

Asthma Sufferers Should Be Cautious Of Swine Flu
www.medicalnewstoday.com...

@ Ecoparity: I have...and will continue to, follow your insight and observations!


[edit on 5/10/2009 by Hx3_1963]




posted on May, 10 2009 @ 02:09 AM
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Pax did make a good point and I should clarify. If you do decide to try and raise your temp (if and only if you're running a sub normal temperature) you need to be very aware of what you're doing and keep careful track of your temperature and how you feel. If you don't feel an improvement cease the process and encourage the low body temperature.

A lot of people are afraid of fevers and think they must be treated and eliminated. As long as your temperature is not over 102 you're very unlikely to suffer seizures. A fever is your immune system trying to kill the invader. The flu virus is sensitive to the temperature of the host, most of the human varieties evolved from swine or birds which have much higher normal body temperatures than we do. That means the virus has to evolve to live at a lower, human temperature. (102.5 is considered normal for swine, for example).

The flu virus is also very skilled at manipulating the immune system of the host. Some strains carry a mutation that bypasses the immune system's early alarm and some are capable of shutting down parts of the immune system response such as body temperature.

We don't know if the low body temp is a secondary bacteria infection, an immune response by the body to get below the flu's operating range or the flu manipulating the immune system into shutting off the fever defense. If you're not in dire shape it might be worth a try seeing if you can figure out which one is at play and using it to combat the virus.

This is not something to be done with a child or someone who has other medical conditions and so on. If you decide to try and raise your body temp back to normal or slightly higher you need to be very aware of how you feel and if doing so seems to help or not.

Lastly, when I gave the list of possible causes for low body temp it wasn't to tell people they are going into organ failure. The flu virus, especially this one does attack the host systematically. The "goal" of a virus is not to kill the host but to reproduce the ideal conditions for it to survive and reproduce itself via spreading to other hosts.

If the long time line issue is valid and we are waiting to see what happens it's important to be watching carefully for these "secondary illnesses". It's these other, systematic afflictions which killed people, not the virus itself. The virus just set the stage. The virus by itself does not seem to be a doomsday killer bug and we should be able to fight it.



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 02:11 AM
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Am I the only one who finds it a little bit odd that the Veratect twitter hasn't posted updates in 14 or so hours? I've been following their updates since late April, and generally they tweet new infections/ deaths every 20 minutes. Lately though, there's been a few hour lapse time, and sometimes I've even noticed them disappear, which I thought was just my phone, but now as I check from the computer, it seems that it's both. Has there been a lapse in news, or do you think they're being silenced?

[edit on 10-5-2009 by Athlete]



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 02:16 AM
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reply to post by Athlete
 
Two of the main three I follow have gone "silent"
twitter.com...
twitter.com...

twitter.com...
Is the only one to update in the past 13 Hrs


Edit: I think "new" testing standards might be part of this...many states are now limiting testing to extreme hospitalization cases...Hmmm...

[edit on 5/10/2009 by Hx3_1963]



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 02:50 AM
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Originally posted by ecoparity
reply to post by paxnatus
 


The low body temp symptoms have been discussed on the back end since mid February. When the CDC calls a virus "novel" they don't mean it's "slightly unique", these people see samples of every up and coming bug in the World. You have to translate what they're saying within the context of their world, something they aren't very good at to be frank about it. There is a dictionary of reported symptoms from this thing and a slightly shorter list of things we're seeing reported in common by a large number of the infected.

This virus is doing things the most experienced researchers available have never seen before. When you add that to the relatively basic genetic structure of a flu virus the mystery gets very strange in a big hurry. The same exact bug from the standpoint of a genetic assay is acting completely different depending on who has it and even the "who" hasn't shown a discernible pattern.

From day one I've left out a lot of details, more than I've posted because I respect the power of the mind to influence the body and I don't want to scare the hell out of people or create physiological effects in the victims.

I'm going to treat everyone as an adult who knows how to take a temperature or hopefully has someone in the house who is capable. If they can't handle that then there's really not much my advice is going to do for them.

We're getting close to the 20 day mark in the time line for some people. The medical system and official groups have done all they're going to do and believe me when I tell you they aren't sharing a lot of information that could make a difference in who recovers from this and who does not. I'm in the same boat, I've been ill for almost 20 days and still have no clue if I'm infected. I'm doing a lot more than the Dr who didn't seem to give a crap advised me to do to try and get healthy. I'm researching and treating myself in addition to what they're doing because the reality is that most Drs in our society barely spend five minutes with you and practice "cookie cutter", "malpractice safe" medicine where the priority is to get you in and out in a hurry and stick to the official guidelines, period.

How many times do I have to tell people things that show up in the news a day or three or a week later before I earn the smallest amount of trust that I might just know a little bit about the subject at hand? I'm not saying I'm beyond reproach and feel free to question everything anyone says by all means but it's starting to feel like a one way conversation around here sometimes.


Have I offended you Eco? I apologize for doing so. My post was truly geared to whathehell, and another individual who had just posted and was ill.

if you re-read what I said it is in reference to you telling someone their kidneys could be shutting down. You were also making suggestions as to what they could try and quite frankly, that advice could be dangerous. I did not wish to call you out like some child, quite the contrary, I went out of my way to not do that.

the questionable body temperature was not directed to you, but it has always been my experience to start with the most obvious reason one would get an extremely sub normal reading. Just because you understand something don't always assume another will have that level of understanding. It has nothing to do with being an adult or being capable, it is called covering the basics. I respect the fact that you have held back and not wanted to scare people. But why are you talking about kidney failure? Did anyone make a comment to lead you in that direction? There are many obvious signs before you get to that point? What exactly is your background I honestly do not know? The rest of my post was an explanation of how important maintaining electrolyte balance is. Again, that was written to whathehell and the other poster. Then right behind that you were posting about sweat lodges.

As far as CDC, I don't have to translate what they are saying. while on the phone to them yesterday, the person I was speaking with came right out and said it. "We have never seen anything like this." I get what "novel" means. As far as not believing you or questioning your sources, not one time in this entire thread have I ever done that.

As far as what the virus is doing. As you well know I posted my husband came down with all the symptoms of H1N1, minus the GI symptoms yet tested negative with the rapid test. I am more convinced than ever he has this virus. Today he is 50 percent better. body aches almost gone, he complained of deep pain in his lower back more than anywhere else. His temperature was normal. Never lower than 97.6 or higher than 100.3. Severe headache, sore throat, and he was very short of breath. Today headache gone, sore throat gone not as much head congestion, cough gone but still has chest congestion and he is still very fatigued.

Here is a little more background. He is in his upper 30's, is in good if not excellent condition. He has no underlying health problems and plays hardcore hockey 2-3 times a week. He has a very healthy lifestyle. Occasional wine drinker, that is it. Well within parameters for his height and weight.

Wouldn't the symptoms be completely different in each individual if the exact bug acts completely different depending on who has it? Are you saying the virus is recombining with each individuals DNA, once inside the host?

Kindly,
Pax



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 03:00 AM
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reply to post by ecoparity
 


O.K. Eco,

You were typing and so was I. I appreciate the clarification disregard what I said about the sweat lodge, and kidney failure. Didn't mean to come off snippy!
Hope you will accept my apologies. What does it mean that my husband appears to be getting better, and didn't have GI symptoms?

Thanks for your time,
Pax



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 03:55 AM
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reply to post by mamana
 


It might be an idea for someone to start a new thread purely for discussing symptoms too, this thread is supposed to be for swine flu news and updates.......?

In fact I'll go and do it this morning.

[edit on 10/5/09 by cosmicpixie]



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 04:10 AM
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Do we have any early indications as to the mortality rate of H1N1?

edit - using the wikipedia figures we get a death rate of 1.43% using confirmed deaths and 4519 infected.

However if we include in the suspected deaths (100) making the total deaths 153, we get a mortality rate of 3.38%

Finally using only WHO confirmed infected and deaths we get a death rate of 1.4%

Doing a quick google search apparently normal flu has a morality rate of 0.1%
This therefore implies that through official WHO figures Swine flu is 14 times more deadly than seasonal influenza, or using the suspected deaths and current confirmed cases swine flu is an alarmingly nearly 34 times worse than standard influenza.



[edit on 10-5-2009 by jonny2410]

[edit on 10-5-2009 by jonny2410]



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 04:45 AM
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Originally posted by paxnatus
reply to post by ecoparity
 


O.K. Eco,

You were typing and so was I. I appreciate the clarification disregard what I said about the sweat lodge, and kidney failure. Didn't mean to come off snippy!
Hope you will accept my apologies. What does it mean that my husband appears to be getting better, and didn't have GI symptoms?

Thanks for your time,
Pax


If it were me or one of mine, based on the long time line thing I would put him on an observation schedule, (check vitals 3 or 4x per day and keep notes). Consider acting as if he's "at risk" for a secondary infection and don't jump right back into a normal routine. Avoid rapid environment changes, exercise and so on for two weeks. We really haven't had any data from anyone in the US who had the virus and recovered though there's no doubt been some of those cases. Until I know for sure I'd go by protocols based on the worst case as in how the virus behaved in Mexico. In that setting it was when people started to feel better that the secondary infections hit or the cyto storm occurred (or both, we have so little detailed info from the Drs who were there).

Hopefully he either didn't have it or will shake it off and be done with it and back to normal. It would be nice if we could actually depend on the test results.

On that front, I'm told a reason for why the rapid tests failed is forthcoming. I may get the info prior to the media release but I'll post it ASAP here either way.



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 04:55 AM
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US reports third swine flu death

news.bbc.co.uk...



US reports third swine flu death
A woman wears a mask to walk through New York's Grand Central Station
More than 2,200 cases of the virus have been reported across the US

The US has reported its third death from swine flu, as Costa Rica confirmed a fatality and three more countries found cases of the virus.

A man with a heart condition who died in the US state of Washington was found to have the virus, officials said.

A 53-year-old man became Costa Rica's first fatality from the flu.

On Saturday Australia, Norway and Japan all confirmed cases of the virus, which emerged in Mexico last month and has killed 48 people there.

Those who have died outside Mexico - three in the US, one in Canada and one in Costa Rica - are reported to have suffered from underlying ailments.

In the US, health officials said that the man in his 30s who died in Washington state last week had a heart condition.

The man who died in Costa Rica was also suffering from diabetes and lung disease, the country's health ministry said.

Studying trends

Globally, cases of the virus have now been reported in 30 countries.

On Saturday Norway confirmed two cases, a man and a woman who had been studying in Mexico, while Australia confirmed one, a woman who had been travelling in the US.

I think right now the numbers don't tell us as much as the trends
Dr Anne Schuchat,
CDC

In Japan, four people - a teacher and three students - who had recently returned from Canada were found to have the virus.

Forty-eight other people who were on the same flight as the four have been placed under a 10-day quarantine, Kyodo news agency said.

In the US, meanwhile, the number of confirmed cases rose to 2,254 on Saturday - up from 1,639 a day ealier. Of these, 104 people were in hospital, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said.

CDC official Dr Anne Schuchat said that it was more important to focus on trends than numbers.

"Fortunately, the severity of illness that we are seeing at this point doesn't look as terrible as a category five kind of pandemic or the severity of impact that some had feared," she said.

But viruses were unpredictable, she said, and it was important to focus on how the virus was spreading and how it developed in the southern hemisphere, which was just beginning its flu season.

"So a lot of our emphasis ... is still understanding the epidemiology transmission, severity and viral characteristics, but also working with partners internationally to really prepare and evaluate issues in their countries," she said.



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 06:10 AM
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Has there been any reports of any Swine flu virus Cases in Africa? Maybe I have missed them. As I have not seen any reported on the NEWS or anywhere.

Does anyone not find this rather strange tat there is no reports of cases on that continent?

Im looking at maps of the outbreaks in different continents, Africa has not got any cases of this.

[edit on 10-5-2009 by Laurauk]



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 06:11 AM
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reply to post by Laurauk
 


Two deaths in Zimbabwe, "flu like symtoms" but we should recieve a report next week. South Africa cases were denied and proved to be false alarm.

Apart from these incidents - nothing.



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 06:12 AM
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Originally posted by Laurauk
Has there been any reports of any Swine flu viruses in Africa? Maybe I have missed them. As I have not seen any reported on the NEWS or anywhere. Does anyone not find this rather strange tat there is no reports of cases on that continent?


I remember hearing of cases in South Africa but nothing in any other areas of Africa. It seems strange but it could be atributed to the fact that not many Africans are likely to have visited mexico or the US. However im sure it will hit Africa soon and when it does
.



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 06:19 AM
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Originally posted by ecoparity
The low body temp symptoms have been discussed on the back end since mid February.


Okay folks .. talk to me about low body temps while sick.

I had a sore throat and chest congestion last week with low body temp. I figured it wasn't the swine flu because of the low temp. Now my daughter has it.

can you have the swine flu AND a low temp??



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 06:56 AM
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Swine flu has mutated:

bouncewith.me.uk...

"The World Health Organization (WHO) has raised the alert to phase six, its highest level, and advised governments to activate pandemic contingency plans."



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 07:00 AM
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Originally posted by FlyersFan

Originally posted by ecoparity
The low body temp symptoms have been discussed on the back end since mid February.


Okay folks .. talk to me about low body temps while sick.

I had a sore throat and chest congestion last week with low body temp. I figured it wasn't the swine flu because of the low temp. Now my daughter has it.

can you have the swine flu AND a low temp??


I've been running it past quite a few med school profs during the back end discussion and it's considered to be mostly abnormal though allowances have to be made for concurrent infection scenarios.

I'm told low body temp is usually a sign of a bacterial infection or the conditions I listed in a previous post, (thyroid condition, renal issues, organ failures) which I point out not to suggest those conditions are part of the pig flu repertoire but to show just how odd it is.

I'm not aware of any discussion of this in the media so far, just private discussion between members of the CDC and medical community but it's been widely reported. It's one of those things that stands out to the point it needs to be examined in case it provides a clue how this virus interacts with a host immune system.

I really didn't want to bring it to light here because the range of possible causes is wide and still being investigated but since we're here with the purpose of watching out for one another decided it might be worth having the infected look into it and if they can do so safely and want to try, narrow down the possibilities and maybe even find a way to head off the late stage effects, secondary infections and so on. I've been playing along at home for a couple of weeks now and have tried a myriad of different treatments on myself. (And though I'm still sick I'm also still alive and in better shape than I was a week ago, for what it's worth).

I personally find certain aspects of the influenza virus fascinating and study it for my own selfish reasons having to do with artificial intelligence development. The virus rewrites it's own code constantly in an effort to survive and perform it's "job" better. It adapts genetic mutations in order to infect new hosts and interacts with the host immune system like a hacker breaking a defensive network and does it all without a brain. If God is the top programmer and the universe is a giant computer the viral infections would be the most powerful code in the system. In addition to cleaning house every now and then there are theories that they serve as a way to patch the genetic code, like a Windows "Life form Earth" Update from Jesus. Anyway, that's way off the subject of our current discussion thread...

Out of the many theories to explain the abnormal symptoms I like the stealth weapon ones:
1. The virus emulates a bacterial infection which screws up the immune system response
2. The virus is able to hack the body temperature regulation / response of the immune system to prevent a fever from killing it off

Or maybe both and much, much more...
I do hope they share that information once they complete the analysis.



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 07:09 AM
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But an upswing in suspected — though not confirmed — cases in parts of Mexico prompted authorities in at least six of the country's 31 states to delay plans to let primary school students return to class on Monday after a two-week break.

"It has been very stable ... except for those states," Health Department spokesman Carlos Olmos said, referring to states in central and southern Mexico.


Unclear combination
In the new report, CDC scientists discussed what’s known about the swine flu virus. It has a unique combination of genes from flu viruses seen in birds, humans and pigs from not only North America but also Europe and Asia.

“There are no really close relatives, nothing we can say was an immediate precursor,” said Michael Shaw, a CDC microbiologist.

It’s still not clear how the combination occurred. Pigs from the Americas are imported into Europe and Asia for breeding purposes, but not the other way around, CDC officials said. Yet the virus first surfaced in California and Mexico. --MSNBC MAY 10, 2009



I thought the last paragraph was interesting. Also, ummm didn't the MSM report all week that things were stable in Mexico? hmmmm...



[edit on 10-5-2009 by EDteach]



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 07:11 AM
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reply to post by Burginthorn
 


that looks like a fake site to me. Goes to "BBC", but not really bbc.

zombie flu??

please.


[edit on Sun May 10th 2009 by geek101]



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 07:12 AM
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reply to post by geek101
 


Lol i think he intended it as light hearted humour



posted on May, 10 2009 @ 07:13 AM
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That is so weird, I don't mean to write such long responses and it doesn't seem like I am when I'm doing it. I'm cursed with extremely high speed typing and a brain that won't shut up and let me chill out. Mix in almost no sleep for a couple of weeks and I may very well meet the clinical definition for insanity right now.


I've got to try and get a nap in before the Mother's day festivities and viral host swapping fun begins. Despite my best efforts the entire extended family has chosen a Mexican Seafood establishment for the event. (The stupidity of relatives can be amazing at times).

Since the thread will no doubt continue on and on please u2u me if anyone has any questions or anything which are directed at me in my absence.

Happy Mother's Day!



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