Swine Flu news and updates thread

For UK-ers :

Found a document called "Health Protection Agency, Pandemic Influenza Contingency Plan"

Read it Here

For each phase of the WHO alert system there are plans/responses in place. Details of post-pandemic actions to be taken are also outlined.

The Who chief's comments indicate going to phase 6 but there is no signal as to "when". I imagine within few days though the way they keep mentioning phase 6

There's 40 cases in Spain and it's in over 20 countries... so yeah Level 6 is coming.

They'll close malls, shopping centers, the stock market at NYC, schools, public events...

No public gathering = no congress and senate too... and no jury.. no trials... meaning martial law. For at least 10 days.

reply to post by FlyersFan


40% of the European Union population is:

196,407,473

reply to post by cosmicpixie


We are already on Alert Level 2 in the United Kingdom, isolating the virus.

Originally posted by Vitchilo

There's 40 cases in Spain and it's in over 20 countries... so yeah Level 6 is coming.

They'll close malls, shopping centers, the stock market at NYC, schools, public events...

No public gathering = no congress and senate too... and no jury.. no trials... meaning martial law. For at least 10 days.

Based on the fact that Mexico seems to have slowed the spread of the flu by effectively shutting the country down for a few days, this would be the best course of action.

My question is this, and I apologize for not knowing, but the invocation of Phase 6 does not mandate that schools, malls etc be closed down does it? The countries have leeway as to how they implement its own measures correct?

If so, there is no way the US is going to do anything as widespread as you suggest...

Well, Australia is still on level 4,

102 suspected cases???? number has not changed in days

1, possibly two confirmed, again not being shown and as of yesterday, no longer being reported on radio. Official number.....0

If the WHO do raise the alert level, I doubt Australia will

www.abc.net.au...

The 40% infection rate among those exposed has been the standard predicted ratio for most of the current outbreak.

Even if the lethality turned out to be in line with seasonal flu the number of deaths will be massive. The calculations are why the response continues to increase even though the fatalities have not yet occurred. They're working half blind, using statistical models to try and feel the way through the dark. The potential number of seriously ill people in need of hospital beds, the number of available beds for those people and the amount of time they will be needed - all these factors determine how serious the response will be.

Keep in mind that 40% figure is based on what we know so far and is not set in stone. It might be higher or lower. The time issue I keep referring to will determine the final percentage, one of the many reasons that issue is so critical at this time.

reply to post by lucy40



I wonder if there have been any instance so far of confirmed swine flue victims refusing to take the Tamiflu and if so did the recover normally anyway?

reply to post by lucy40


Ah yes, but she is visiting the UK, so is counted as a UK confirmation, not Australian.

Confirmation are confirmed to the area they are in, not the area they are from.



[edit on 4-5-2009 by LenGXV6]

It appears that only one person outside Mexico has died of this, but many others have caught it and recovered.

Obviously the virus circulating now is comparatively mild, the real worry is that it might become more lethal and come back for a second punch like the 1918 one did.

Most likely, if you catch this virus now, you will be immune to it if it does come back. Therefore, my advice is to get into all the crowded public places you can and attempt to catch it while catching it is safe, so as to be immune later. Unlike immunisation immunity, the immunity you get from catching a disease when you are healthy is lifelong, and can even be passed on to your babies later via breastfeeding.

Eating lots of fruit and veges, adequate protein, and having plenty of vitamin C and cod-liver oil will help with recovering and forming a lifelong immunity.

But I'm old-school, from a time before most current immunisations.
We kept our kiddies healthy by making sure they were exposed to measles, mumps and chicken-pox at a young age and feeding them basic home-grown foods. Lollies were home made toffee apples and sweet drinks were home made fruit syrups. And every day started with a bowl of porridge each.

Despite modern medicine, immunisations and supermarkets, it's much harder now for people to bring up their children with the robust health and fitness we took for granted back then.

Originally posted by Kailassa
It appears that only one person outside Mexico has died of this, but many others have caught it and recovered.

Obviously the virus circulating now is comparatively mild, the real worry is that it might become more lethal and come back for a second punch like the 1918 one did.

Most likely, if you catch this virus now, you will be immune to it if it does come back. Therefore, my advice is to get into all the crowded public places you can and attempt to catch it while catching it is safe, so as to be immune later. Unlike immunisation immunity, the immunity you get from catching a disease when you are healthy is lifelong, and can even be passed on to your babies later via breastfeeding.

Eating lots of fruit and veges, adequate protein, and having plenty of vitamin C and cod-liver oil will help with recovering and forming a lifelong immunity.

But I'm old-school, from a time before most current immunisations.
We kept our kiddies healthy by making sure they were exposed to measles, mumps and chicken-pox at a young age and feeding them basic home-grown foods. Lollies were home made toffee apples and sweet drinks were home made fruit syrups. And every day started with a bowl of porridge each.

Despite modern medicine, immunisations and supermarkets, it's much harder now for people to bring up their children with the robust health and fitness we took for granted back then.

The back channel info is that 30 to 50 people are currently hospitalized in serious condition. These are people with severe respiratory issues, many if not all requiring ventilators.

If we play along and say the total US confirmed cases number 300, that's a 10% rate of serious reactions possibly leading to death. Try applying that 10% make believe number to the various count reports from Mexico and elsewhere and see how it fits.

If the CAR does end up being 30% of the World population we could be looking at a few million people in need of intense medical care or even deaths. That's quite a large number vs. seasonal flu.

We don't know yet if the current cases will become seriously ill in a week or two. The early Mexican cases developed "atypical pneumonia" weeks after infection.

I would not advise anyone to get infected, for one. The case for later immunity based on infection is also so questionable as to qualify as voodoo. The flu mutates so much there is no seasonal immunity to it worth considering.

[edit on 4-5-2009 by ecoparity]

Originally posted by ecoparity
The back channel info is that 30 to 50 people are currently hospitalized in serious condition.

Its more than 50.
Much more.

what puzzles me. Also why I don't really trust what I am hearing on the news anymore.. Sounds more like operation stop the panic or what not.

Before May, Mexico was saying more the 150+ deaths from the h1n1 sickness. Now its only 19. Just how in the world can you screw those numbers up? Just how? So how did the other 130 or whatnot other people die? In Mexico? I dunno, why would they even report that in the first place. Just suspected deaths? So they had similar symptoms and what? Did not test positive for the flu? Big gray area here.. I really don't care as of right now, pretty sure people are not dieing right now from it, but why report such a thing in the first place if you were only trying to get attention on this thing.

I dunno, maybe lots of people in Mexico, die from flu there everyday or something. I find that pretty odd thou. In the Month of April so many people could die from flu related causes.

[edit on 4-5-2009 by Adrifter]

Originally posted by infinite

Originally posted by ecoparity
The back channel info is that 30 to 50 people are currently hospitalized in serious condition.

Its more than 50.
Much more.

What do you base that on?

Originally posted by ecoparity

The back channel info is that 30 to 50 people are currently hospitalized in serious condition. These are people with severe respiratory issues, many if not all requiring ventilators.


[edit on 4-5-2009 by ecoparity]

I'm inclined to believe those numbers as we've not gotten much information on the current condition of those who have been confirmed as having contracted the disease. Every so often we will hear that a patient, "recovered on their own," but we've never been given a numeric breakdown as to how many were hospitalized and how many remain so nor anything about their condition.

What is pissing me off to the enth degree is the slowness of these verifications of the probable cases. I live in NY, Western NY and we have now been waiting for results on a local case since Wednesday!!!!! I have been following the results closely on here, thanks so much to infinite and others, but nothing. Cases that were sent from other areas upstate have been either confirmed or found to be negative, but nothing from here.

In the time that has lapsed while we sit here and passively wait for the CDC to give the "official" results this thing could be spreading like wild fire. Not much of a panic here, the store shelves were full of hand sanitizers and masks. It is like most people here are just not paying attention or think it is a joke. You should have seen the looks I got when putting gel on my hands after touching things like doors or railings. What is wrong with this picture???

I don't know how it works in other states but in NY you can't just yank your kids in the middle of the school year and proclaim you are home schooling. You have to purchase approved home school curriculum submit a lesson plan and then you can yank them. I had many friends that did home school and the crap they went though was just unbelievable.

Laurie Garrett....Senior Fellow....Council on Foreign Relations....not sure if I trust a thing coming out of her mouth either way. She has been a fixture on cnn since this whole thing started.

US, Oregon: One confirmed case in Multnomah contracted virus from relatives recently returned from Mexico. #swineflu
2 minutes ago from web

US, Oregon: CDC confirms three influenza A (H1N1) cases in Multnomah (2) and Polk (1) counties. #swineflu #H1N1
3 minutes ago from web

Originally posted by Night Watchman

Originally posted by ecoparity

The back channel info is that 30 to 50 people are currently hospitalized in serious condition. These are people with severe respiratory issues, many if not all requiring ventilators.


[edit on 4-5-2009 by ecoparity]

I'm inclined to believe those numbers as we've not gotten much information on the current condition of those who have been confirmed as having contracted the disease. Every so often we will hear that a patient, "recovered on their own," but we've never been given a numeric breakdown as to how many were hospitalized and how many remain so nor anything about their condition.

CDC official US count is 30 hospitalized and another 19 to 22 unconfirmed (in hospital but not confirmed by test or patients being tested who may have become infected while in hospital, etc)

There are sources who claim the real number is closer to 300 hospitalized, 3000 infected and 30,000 in the process of being confirmed.

reply to post by redhead57


I'm not sure if this was posted, but the two possible cases in Niagara county came back negative. News Source

One in Chautauqua County is still listed as probably, one other as suspected. Also suspected cases in Gennessee & Wyoming Counties. (1 in each county)