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Swine flu pandemic 'still likely'
Published: Sunday, 3 May 2009, 8:22AM
Despite a fall in the number of serious swine flu cases in Mexico, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned the virus could still become a pandemic.
"Each day there are fewer serious cases and the mortality has been decreasing," Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said in Mexico City, where millions are following government advice to stay at home.
Of the more than 100 suspected deaths from the new H1N1 virus that have emerged in Mexico, 19 had been confirmed, Mr Cordova said. Mexico had already scaled back from its original estimate of 176 suspected deaths.
But new cases of the mongrel virus, which mixes swine, avian and human flu strains, are still being tracked across the world, with new cases confirmed in Costa Rica, Italy and Ireland. The virus has now been found in 18 countries.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) said H1N1 influenza had not spread in a sustained way outside North America, as required before the pandemic alert is raised to its highest level. But it said that would probably happen soon.
"I would still propose that a pandemic is imminent because we are seeing the disease spread," Michael Ryan, WHO director of Global Alert and Response, told a briefing on Saturday.
In Hong Kong, police quarantined a hotel with 300 guests and staff for one week after a Mexican guest was found to have the virus. Mexico has called the action "unjustified" and advised its citizens to avoid travel to China.
The WHO said 15 countries had reported 615 infections, not including the reports of confirmed cases in Ireland, Italy and Costa Rica. The US, the second hardest-hit nation, has confirmed 160 cases in 21 states.
But public hospitals in Mexico have noted a steady drop in patients turning up with fevers, suggesting the infection rate may be declining as people use hand gel and avoid crowds.
US officials said they were encouraged by the developments in Mexico but added it was too early to relax.
"We are remaining vigilant," said Dr Anne Schuchat of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.
Almost all infections outside Mexico have been mild. The only death in another country has been a Mexican toddler who was taken to the US before he became ill.
Scientists are still trying to assess how the new virus behaves and compares to regular seasonal flu strains, which kill between 250,000 and 500,000 globally every year.
WHO hiked its alert level to five from three last week - the last step before a pandemic - due to the flu's ability to spread and the threat it could target poor and disease-prone communities.
Originally posted by jonny2410
reply to post by ecoparity
so is your overall view that the people infected with the virus are likely to have trouble 2 or 3 weeks down the line, perhaps leading to death?
Originally posted by ecoparity
Originally posted by jonny2410
reply to post by ecoparity
so is your overall view that the people infected with the virus are likely to have trouble 2 or 3 weeks down the line, perhaps leading to death?
I don't have a view on that, I'm just passing on a subject which is on the short list of hot button issues over at CDC / WHO. My opinion is that as of right now victims who are getting medical care, especially preventive medications for respiratory infections will probably recover. It's a bit of a wait and see right now to find out if the early US cases will begin having severe breathing problems 2 to 4 weeks after the infection date.
Such a scenario would quickly overwhelm the healthcare system, even in first World countries. Imagine that same scenario playing out in Mexico...
It's a statistical fact that during large scale disasters like this, once the ball is loose and the public know's what's up and begins to panic the number one cause of fatalities quickly becomes violence. That, combined with the economic impact on an already shaky financial system is why "they" will continue to lie to us until it becomes too obvious to ignore. In fact, they may never tell us the full truth.
Originally posted by Hx3_1963
reply to post by Bhadhidar
Star 4 U !
I haven't heard any mention of that reference in quite awhile...
I believe the pocket full of posy's was for a funeral/cremation/pyre offering and ashes, ashes, they all fall down was the reference for the aftermath of the collapsing pyre fires...
I think it was created in response to customs back then of passing down story's in rhyme so future generations wouldn't forget that event...
Sound right?
If memory serves me correctly, the pocket full of posy's was to cover the smell of the disease. People would put them in their pockets and hope that this would ward off infection. People would also attach beak like nose covers on their face to keep the disease from affecting them. Bodies would turn black in color--hence--Black Death as they rotted from the disease.
Just watching NBC this morning and their news summary had swine flu in last place. Funny, in third /fourth place Friday, Sat. it moved up in importance, and today, low on the totem pole again--interesting.
[edit on 5/2/2009 by Hx3_1963]
AP
BOGOTA (AP) — Colombia's social protection minister says a case of swine flu has been confirmed in the Andean nation. It is the first confirmed case in South America
Minister Diego Palacio says the infected person "is in good condition clinically" and is at home with family.
He would offer any more details about the infected person, but said the patient recently returned from Mexico
Originally posted by Seany
Why are they fudging the numbers, ?