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Originally posted by Iago18
I find it interesting that the only nations that are being affected are first-world/second-world nations.
Is this because these are the only nations that report this kind of an outbreak or because this virus benefits from affluence. What I mean by this is, there are so many other diseases in third-world areas that there may be more powerful bugs already dominant over the population.
Or maybe something more sinister?
Originally posted by jonny2410
its starting to become interesting what anaylsts on BBC and Sky are saying. They say they expect the outbreaks to increase vastly in Africa and Asia. The analyst said he was very concenrned that mutation was likely to occur in Asia especially, citing it as the "hotbead of flu viruses".
The 2004 outbreaks of H5N1 influenza viruses in Vietnam and Thailand were highly lethal to humans and to poultry; therefore, newly emerging avian influenza A viruses pose a continued threat, not only to avian species but also to humans. We studied the pathogenicity of four human and nine avian H5N1/04 influenza viruses in ferrets (an excellent model for influenza studies). All four human isolates were fatal to intranasally inoculated ferrets. The human isolate A/Vietnam/1203/04 (H5N1) was the most pathogenic isolate; the severity of disease was associated with a broad tissue tropism and high virus titers in multiple organs, including the brain. High fever, weight loss, anorexia, extreme lethargy, and diarrhea were observed. Two avian H5N1/04 isolates were as pathogenic as the human viruses, causing lethal systemic infections in ferrets. Seven of nine H5N1/04 viruses isolated from avian species caused mild infections, with virus replication restricted to the upper respiratory tract. All chicken isolates were nonlethal to ferrets. A sequence analysis revealed polybasic amino acids in the hemagglutinin connecting peptides of all H5N1/04 viruses, indicating that multiple molecular differences in other genes are important for a high level of virulence. Interestingly, the human A/Vietnam/1203/04 isolate had a lysine substitution at position 627 of PB2 and had one to eight amino acid changes in all gene products except that of the M1 gene, unlike the A/chicken/Vietnam/C58/04 and A/quail/Vietnam/36/04 viruses. Our results indicate that viruses that are lethal to mammals are circulating among birds in Asia and suggest that pathogenicity in ferrets, and perhaps humans, reflects a complex combination of different residues rather than a single amino acid difference.
The H5N1 influenza viruses transmitted to humans in 1997 were highly virulent, but the mechanism of their virulence in humans is largely unknown. Here we show that lethal H5N1 influenza viruses, unlike other human, avian and swine influenza viruses, are resistant to the antiviral effects of interferons and tumor necrosis factor . The nonstructural (NS) gene of H5N1 viruses is associated with this resistance. Pigs infected with recombinant human H1N1 influenza virus that carried the H5N1 NS gene experienced significantly greater and more prolonged viremia, fever and weight loss than did pigs infected with wild-type human H1N1 influenza virus. These effects required the presence of glutamic acid at position 92 of the NS1 molecule. These findings may explain the mechanism of the high virulence of H5N1 influenza viruses in humans.
But some researchers worry that H5N1 is actually an even more deadly threat than H1N1 (the 1918 virus).
First of all, this flu - at least in its bird-to-human form - is a far more vicious killer. In 1918-19, 2.5 per cent of infected Americans died. In contrast, more than 70 per cent of this year's H5N1 cases (30 out of 42) have perished: a lethality comparable to ebola fever and other nightmare emergent diseases.
The Center for Disease Control has estimated that a new pandemic would infect 40 to 100 million Americans. Multiply that by a 70 per cent kill rate and ponder your family's future.
Secondly, as the WHO has repeatedly emphasized, the avian flu seems to have conquered an ecological niche of unprecedented dimension. The rise of factory poultry farming in Asia over the last decade, and the dangerously unhygienic conditions in farms and plants, have created a perfect incubator for the new virus.
Moreover, in the face of desperate WHO efforts to geographically contain the avian pandemic by destroying infected bird populations, the virus has literally taken flight. H5N1 has been identified in dead herons, gulls, egrets, hawks and pigeons. Like West Nile, it has wings with which can cross oceans and potentially infect bird populations everywhere.
In August, furthermore, the Chinese announced that the avian strain had been detected in pigs. This is a particularly ominous development since pigs, susceptible to both bird and human flu, are likely crucibles for genetic 'reassortment' between viruses. Containment seems to have failed.
Thirdly, a new pandemic will use modern transportation. The 1918-19 virus was slowed by ocean-going transport and the isolation of rural society. Its latterday descendant could jet-hop the globe in a week.
Finally, the mega-slums of Asia, Africa and Latin America are like so many lakes of gasoline awaiting the spark of H5N1. Third World urbanization has created unparalleled high-density concentrations of poor people in ill health, ripe for viral slaughter.
So I work at yyc airport and I have a flight to work.
There I am waiting at the gate, all of a sudden fire department and ema show up and we are told nobody gets of and nobody gets on.
Apparently there are people on the plane that are violently il
And a weird rash has broken out amongst them.
This isn't in the news yet but I thought my fellow ats members
Originally posted by Iago18
reply to post by fleabit
I think that that is a very good assessment. It's morbidly interesting to see how a pandemic spreads.
Once we heard it was in NYC, you knew Western Europe would be next. So, any guesses as to the last nation to be affected?
My guess is North Korea or Cambodia