Swine Flu news and updates thread

reply to post by habfan1968


Well, thankyou. It's just the Government of Canada logo.
Yes, I believe this site is very resourceful, as it has a collection of not only various news sources, but local, first hand encounters from individuals from all over.
That is a good combination, and yes, this is a good accumulation of news and information.

But thats besides the point: People shouldn't spend to much time dwindling in these affairs otherwise they may get sick themselves. Maybe not the swine flu, but depression, a cold or something else because it is crucial to be happy and not constantly dwell on negative issues. I find there is a direct correlation between the amount of time I spend on ATS and the general positiveness of my attitude usually.

I think it's healthy to prepare and gather information on how to combat issues such as these, but there are also other, more joyful and fulfilling things in life.

reply to post by For(Home)Country


Have you guys noticed on the EDIS map....
www.idemc.org...

that there are no cases in Africa through the Middle East all the way to Russia.

Is this a good map? Is there a better one I don't know about? Are there cases in these countries?

Mexico says has 17 more suspected swine flu deaths

MEXICO CITY, April 29 (Reuters) - Mexico has counted another 17 deaths of patients suspected to have been infected with swine flu, Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said on Wednesday.

The figure brings the total number of swine flu deaths in Mexico to as many as 176, a Health Ministry spokesman said. (Reporting by Jason Lange and Catherine Bremer, Editing by Sandra Maler)

www.alertnet.org...

Any numbers being released by the media or any agency should be considered highly suspect. The numbers are likely over 48 hours old and many deaths or cases are being ruled out on technicalities.

reply to post by MikeboydUS


Yeah I am not taking any of the numbers to seriously. This sucker is moving to fast. I will see what the numbers are in a few days or, it gets so bad they cant hide it anymore

wow that is weird I was just pointing out to my fiance that there are ( on the google map)no little people in certain areas but it does not make sense. Africa has a couple in South Africa but that is all, Asia has almost none and Russia has none, China has none Japan has none, North Korea has none any way lots of countries have no cases but it is just the way it look on the map that makes it seem very strange. Maybe they really don't have any but it looks real weird. So if you had to come up with a conspiracy theory it would be those areas that have almost no infections you would look at first?

Originally posted by judydawg
reply to post by For(Home)Country

 

Have you guys noticed on the EDIS map....
www.idemc.org...

that there are no cases in Africa through the Middle East all the way to Russia.

Is this a good map? Is there a better one I don't know about? Are there cases in these countries?

Strange because of this 12 hours ago;
Africa Flu
S.Africa sees continent's first possible swine flu

South Africa on Wednesday reported the continent's first suspected cases of swine flu, as countries from Mauritania to Mozambique stepped up precautions against the disease.

I think they just can't keep up with all this action. Nebraska also has one(my town) as does Iowa.

Anyway, have a good night all I must get some sleep. From Canada, we wish all of you well.

So what is the deal with this?

We have

A unique flu virus
Early April Break out in the largest metro in the world
3 Weeks in we have only (as compared to population) around 2600 cases and 179 deaths there
The virus supposedly comes from pigs, yet no infected pigs are found
It has now spread to about 10 countries but mostly all are mild cases, no deaths

WHO raises to level 5, where 6 is the highest level
WHO press conference speaks as though this is a very bad situation
But the numbers just don't agree, they would suggest no more than a regular flu.

Yet the panic seems extremely high, still no numbers to back that up. Not much information in general. And no border closings or travel bans. I am sure that every person who is sniffling the slightest bit is thinking they might have it.

The hospitals are probably sending every single sample they get from any person who has a fever(which would include regualr flu/colds that are normal any time of year) This is likely raising all of the "suspected" case counts making it seem much larger than it is.

What is missing here? I am very confused. I remember SARS pretty clearly and people were dieing in different countries, but I don't recall the same amount of panic, yet we are no where near the fatalities.

I just heard on the news here in Toronto that, this virus is actually not new and has been floating around north America since 1996-97. But somewhere along the way it picked up/mutated slightly after adding the asian swine part of the strain. Basically saying that someone who had this flu likely came into contact with an infected asian pig somewhere and it mutated from there.

They also said that this is not difficult to beat, and 99% of the cases will be mild and just require rest and fluids like most flu bugs.

I keep hearing this same sort of play down by the media here in Canada, No one in the medical industry seems to be worried at all here in Canada. And yet WHO raised the level to 5........


What gives? We are either seriously missing some important information or we are over-reacting to this.

Originally posted by PowerSlave
So what is the deal with this?

We have

A unique flu virus
Early April Break out in the largest metro in the world
3 Weeks in we have only (as compared to population) around 2600 cases and 179 deaths there
The virus supposedly comes from pigs, yet no infected pigs are found
It has now spread to about 10 countries but mostly all are mild cases, no deaths

WHO raises to level 5, where 6 is the highest level
WHO press conference speaks as though this is a very bad situation
But the numbers just don't agree, they would suggest no more than a regular flu.

Yet the panic seems extremely high, still no numbers to back that up. Not much information in general. And no border closings or travel bans. I am sure that every person who is sniffling the slightest bit is thinking they might have it.

The hospitals are probably sending every single sample they get from any person who has a fever(which would include regualr flu/colds that are normal any time of year) This is likely raising all of the "suspected" case counts making it seem much larger than it is.

What is missing here? I am very confused. I remember SARS pretty clearly and people were dieing in different countries, but I don't recall the same amount of panic, yet we are no where near the fatalities.

I just heard on the news here in Toronto that, this virus is actually not new and has been floating around north America since 1996-97. But somewhere along the way it picked up/mutated slightly after adding the asian swine part of the strain. Basically saying that someone who had this flu likely came into contact with an infected asian pig somewhere and it mutated from there.

They also said that this is not difficult to beat, and 99% of the cases will be mild and just require rest and fluids like most flu bugs.

I keep hearing this same sort of play down by the media here in Canada, No one in the medical industry seems to be worried at all here in Canada. And yet WHO raised the level to 5........


What gives? We are either seriously missing some important information or we are over-reacting to this.

It is because we have no immunity yet, just because the numbers aren't many yet doesn't mean it won't get there. It is spreading and spreading fast because of our lack of immunity. The reason there is massive amounts of fear and panic are because it has the ability to mutate into something much worse. As for them producing the vaccine... I find it stupid for now because we don't know if it is this mutation that will cause the deaths present in a pandemic... yet waiting may be an extremely bad idea.... idk its complicated.

reply to post by PowerSlave


Agreed... It is very strange at this point and it is hard to tell what is truth and what is not on the TV. MSM is playing it down while the WHO raises the alert to 5.

I live in a small town just south of Tarrant co and have been following our area closely. Fort Worth is in Tarrant Co.

(Tarrant County, Texas) … Tarrant County Public Health is investigating five new probable cases of swine flu (North American Influenza), bringing the total number of probable cases to six. At this time, there are no confirmed cases in Tarrant County. Of the five new probable cases, the age ranges are from 11 months to 75 years. None of the new probable cases are of school age. Two of the cases have a history of travel to Mexico and two of the cases are related. All are recovering well and do not require hospitalization.

(Tarrant County, Texas) … Tarrant County Public Health is investigating five new probable cases of swine flu bringing the total number of probable cases to 11. Additional cases will likely occur. There is no way of telling at this time how long the outbreak will last. Of the 5 new probable cases, the age ranges are from 6 to 56 years; three are of school age and one has a history of travel to Mexico. None of the cases are related. All are recovering well and have not required hospitalization.

Tarrant Co. Health Dept


Total of 4 school age children possibly infected (these three plus one original), not confirmed, and the entire Ft.Worth school district closes. Not sure this makes sense...but then maybe they trying to stay ahead of the game.

went out to get some masks but only could find ones in the home improvement department.. hopefully they don't completely suck.. but the 2 pharmacies we went to and wal-mart did not sell medical/surgical masks at all.. also got some canned stuff, some bleach, oranges etc.. sadly we cant really afford any other suppliments or anti-virals right now..

but i guess i'm hoping this is not as bad as WHO and others are acting in some respects... though if that were the case, i'm a bit worried of the reasons and outcome still...

anyway, i have another concern right now.. i work in retail, and tomorrow i am scheduled to work 4 hours with my boss whom just came back from mexico after spending a week down there.. i'll also be working with him the following 2 days.. i'm right on the fence. any thoughts?

Hi everyone, just joined ATS to post this information. I have no idea if it is true or not - I found it via reddit. It is interesting and it may shed some light on why the CDC and WHO are taking such a concern with this virus.

(copy and paste from Reddit - www.reddit.com...)

Subject: Flu Update from Dr. [Redacted for privacy]

After I returned from a public health meeting yesterday with community leaders and school officials in Comal County, Heather suggested I send an update to everyone, because what we are hearing privately from the CDC and Health Department is so different from what you are hearing in the media. Some of you know some or maybe all of this, but I will just list what facts I know..

*

The virus is infectious for about 2 days prior to symptom onset
*

Virus sheds more than 7 days after symptom onset (possibly as long as 9 days) (this is unusual)
*

Since it is such a novel (new) virus, there is no "herd immunity," so the "attack rate" is very high. This is the percentage of people who come down with a virus if exposed. Almost everyone who is exposed to this virus will become infected, though not all will be symptomatc. That is much higher than seasonal flu, which averages 10-15%. The "clinical attack rate" may be around 40-50%. This is the number of people who show symptoms. This is a huge number. It is hard to convey the seriousness of this.
*

The virulence (deadliness) of this virus is as bad here as in Mexico, and there are folks on ventilators here in the US, right now. This has not been in the media, but a 23 month old near here is fighting for his life, and a pregnant woman just south of San Antonio is fighting for her life. In Mexico, these folks might have died already, but here in the US, folks are getting Tamiflu or Relenza quickly, and we have ready access to ventilators. What this means is that within a couple of weeks, regional hospitals will likely become overwhelmed.
*

Some of the kids with positive cases in Comal County had more than 70 contacts before diagnosis.
*

There are 10-25 times more actual cases (not "possible" cases -- actual), than what is being reported in the media. The way they fudge on reporting this is that it takes 3 days to get the confirmatory nod from the CDC on a given viral culture, but based on epidemiological grounds, we know that there are more than 10 cases for each "confirmed" case right now.
*

During the night, we crossed the threshold for the definition of a WHO, Phase 6 global pandemic. This has not happened in any of our lifetimes so far. We are in uncharted territory.
*

I expect President Obama will declare an emergency sometime in the next 72-96 hours. This may not happen, but if it doesn't, I will be surprised. When this happens, all public gathering will be cancelled for 10 days.
*

I suggest all of us avoid public gatherings. Outdoor activities are not as likely to lead to infection. It is contained areas and close contact that are the biggest risk..
*

Tamiflu is running out. There is a national stockpile, but it will have to be carefully managed, as it is not enough to treat the likely number of infections when this is full-blown. I don't think there is a big supply of Relenza, but I do not know those numbers. If I had to choose, I would take Relenza, as I think it gets more drug to the affected tissue than Tamiflu.
*

You should avoid going to the ER if you think you have been exposed or are symptomatic. ER's south of here are becoming overwhelmed -- and I mean that -- already. It is coming in waves, but the waves are getting bigger.

Originally posted by MikeboydUS
Mexico says has 17 more suspected swine flu deaths

MEXICO CITY, April 29 (Reuters) - Mexico has counted another 17 deaths of patients suspected to have been infected with swine flu, Health Minister Jose Angel Cordova said on Wednesday.

The figure brings the total number of swine flu deaths in Mexico to as many as 176, a Health Ministry spokesman said. (Reporting by Jason Lange and Catherine Bremer, Editing by Sandra Maler)

www.alertnet.org...

Any numbers being released by the media or any agency should be considered highly suspect. The numbers are likely over 48 hours old and many deaths or cases are being ruled out on technicalities.

Funny, I checked reuters.com and not one mention of these 17 dead in Mexico. I thought this AlertNet was a Reuters site, or do they just use the name to try to sound credible.

Again, I don't take any of this as truth unless I can confirm it from 2 separate news sources.

I'll eat crow if I'm wrong though...

reply to post by somniis


uhhh...wow.

line two cause I don't have much more to add.

edit: hahahahah just read the pun replies sequence though...hilarious. i will star you simply for that.

[edit on 4/29/09 by CSquared288]

reply to post by spark9576


Alertnet is ran by Reuters.

More often than not stories will break on Alertnet first then hit the main Reuters page.

reply to post by MikeboydUS


Thanks for the clarification. I couldn't' tell if it was Reuters or a "Reuters Like" site.

So I can take it that any news from alertnet is just about as credible if nor more than the MSM?

I live in Northern Cali Stockton to be precise I'm keeping my kids home from school until Monday until I see how it goes I have been watching this for a while and it's not looking good. I don't trust what the media says so this is my stance until at least Monday.

reply to post by PowerSlave


You're confused because you don't have the correct timeline.

First, check out this link:

biosurveillance.typepad.com...

Then realize that this thing broke out in Mexico just before Easter. Celebrating the Easter holiday brought tens, if not hundreds of thousands into contact with infected people before anyone had a clue as to what was happening. People from all over the world come to celebrate Easter in Mexico because they do such a bang-up job of it. Go look at some photos of Easter processionals and think about what happens if even 1% are infected. The first deaths began to be recognized and reported a week or two after Easter, exactly as you'd expect if the incubation period is 2-4 days, and the illness runs one to three weeks. Most of the first outbreaks elsewhere seemed to come from church groups travelling to celebrate Easter in Mexico.

The original town reporting the bug had a 60% infection rate. What it means is that this bug is very easily transmissable human to human. Go back and look at those processional photos again and think about a 60% infection rate. Multiply that by all the Easter gatherings in Mexico and perhaps you'll understand why WHO is freaked. Add to that the way flu virii mutate, realizing that a 4-part strain is inherently unstable....

It's like this: flu virii have eight independent genes, when they meet in an infected cell they split up and reshuffle their gene packages randomly. This particular bug has genetic components from North American swine flu, European swine flu, an avian flu, and human flu. Somewhere waaay back there it was reported as a 3-2-2-1 mix, but I can't confirm that. Now what that means is that this is a bridge flu: it can infect pigs, birds, and humans. Every time it hits a bird, it might mutate to include components of the H5N1 virus and human flu. Beginning to see the implications? Being a tri-species flu also means that it has multiple reservoirs to hide in and pop out slightly different each time: wave after wave of different flus.

Now do you understand why those with a clue are getting progessively more freaked?

edit: sp

[edit on 30-4-2009 by apacheman]

For those following Texas

VeratectUS, Texas, Tarrant County: One Confirmed Case of Swine Influenza Reported 4 minutes ago from web

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