SETI: "Humans Predicted to Make Contact with an ET Civilization Within Two Decades"

Here's what Seth Shostak had to say about the chances of finding life out there:

"That's 500 billion planets out there, and bear in mind there are 100 billion other galaxies. To think this [the Earth] is the only place where anything interesting is happening, you have got to be really audacious to take that point of view." Seth Shostak, SETI senior astronomer

Some leading astronomers are quite confident that mankind will make contact with intelligent alien life within two decades. The search for extraterrestrial life will leap forward next year when NASA launches the Kepler space telescope. The instrument will be constantly scanning the same 100,000 stars over its four-year mission with the exciting objective of discovering Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones around suns.

Link to full article:
www.dailygalaxy.com...

This article in itself was interesting but what really made me think was this:

....In fact, it would be more “miraculous” if we could effectively communicate with extraterrestrial life than to find that it exists.....

Seriously... how would we (assuming they are intelligent life forms and have their own means of communication) communicate and what would we communicate?

Got me thinking of the old "Take me to your leader!" scenario, but seriously how do you forsee this?










[edit on 17-4-2009 by kiwifoot]

Pretty sure SETI is just trolling people, the truth is they've most definitely been in contact with some sort of intelligent alien civilization for some time now and are denying information to the public, being forced by NASA and the government not to tell.

reply to post by kiwifoot


when they say ET contact in terms of seti that means dedecting another civlization. The most likely way seti will get a result is by detecting an ET civs leaked signals. If they have powerfull trasnmitters or radar we will detect it.

as for exchanging meaningfull information well theres a few ideas in this seti podcast. radio.seti.org...

reply to post by Deus Ex Machina 42


Ok say your 100% right.

Then does this mean, that they will start telling us about it within the next 20 years?

I don't see how Seth Shostak can add up planets in the galaxy and come up with a figure as to how many intelligent ET civilizations are out there and how long it's going to take us to find them. He's just assuming that if there's a planet out there kind of like Earth, it automatically develops life somehow. Quite a trick.

I don't mind SETI, really, but the assumptions they make about so many things are really too much. And as unlikely as it is that we'll happen across an alien radio transmission, I guess it becomes even more unlikely if we never listen for them.

Still, if something does pop up, I hope it's really, really far away, too far away for the aliens to ever get to us or find us or talk to us. That way, there's a slightly lower chance of everybody on Earth immediately freaking out. A nice, quiet little signal that is exciting at first, then gets boring really fast, and quickly becomes a part of academia where it's handled by the same people digging up pottery shards or collecting mold spores.

[edit on 17-4-2009 by Nohup]

Originally posted by Deus Ex Machina 42
Pretty sure SETI is just trolling people, the truth is they've most definitely been in contact with some sort of intelligent alien civilization for some time now and are denying information to the public, being forced by NASA and the government not to tell.

That was my immediate thought when I read this post. You wouldn't think they would come out with this without being pretty confident.

"Insider trading" if you will.

Ideally they wouldn't hide this from us in the first place but this is certainly positive news.

S&F for sure

Originally posted by kiwifoot
Seriously... how would we (assuming they are intelligent life forms and have their own means of communication) communicate and what would we communicate?

Got me thinking of the old "Take me to your leader!" scenario, but seriously how do you forsee this?

There's not going to be any real chance of two-way communication using radio with anything past 200 light years or so. That's a pretty long delay. And just because they're broadcasting doesn't mean they'll be listening for us.

The assumption with all of this is that they'll be creatures essentially like us, with the same basic technology. Personally, I think the odds of that are extremely slim. Still, you never know. Maybe we'll find some other way to communicate in the next few decades (subspace, or whatever), and it'll turn out we were listening to the wrong stuff all along.

reply to post by Deus Ex Machina 42 they Are just testing the water. i'm sure this site is being watched by the CIA the FBI even the FDA. in fact they are probably paying a person to sit in a little room monitoring every thread, post, and who knows? some may even be members

Originally posted by Nohup

Originally posted by kiwifoot
Seriously... how would we (assuming they are intelligent life forms and have their own means of communication) communicate and what would we communicate?

Got me thinking of the old "Take me to your leader!" scenario, but seriously how do you forsee this?

There's not going to be any real chance of two-way communication using radio with anything past 200 light years or so. That's a pretty long delay. And just because they're broadcasting doesn't mean they'll be listening for us.

The assumption with all of this is that they'll be creatures essentially like us, with the same basic technology. Personally, I think the odds of that are extremely slim. Still, you never know. Maybe we'll find some other way to communicate in the next few decades (subspace, or whatever), and it'll turn out we were listening to the wrong stuff all along.

I guess you are right on that, but do the laws of evolution apply throughout the universe? Given enough time would all alien life evolve into an intelligent life form. I'm not arrogant enough to assume that we are the pinnacle of natural selection, but could it be that somethng like us has evolved somewhere else? There's no real answer I know,but it's interesting to surmise!

if there are civilisation out there that are way more advanced than us, then why the heck would they be communicating with seti with radio transmissions??

if we are going to have the technology of the keplar telescope, then surely other civilisations would have way more advanced stuff than this. im sure they probably are zoomed right in on what our newspapers are saying right now.

google earth, etc.... man advanced people must have better than that, better than hubble, keplar..................

its an insult to the ETs and to humans that seti say what they do. at the end of the day , seti is a huge smokescreen. there is no radio transmitted conversations ever going to take place.

IMHO it has already happened in person.

Originally posted by Nohup

Originally posted by kiwifoot
Seriously... how would we (assuming they are intelligent life forms and have their own means of communication) communicate and what would we communicate?

Got me thinking of the old "Take me to your leader!" scenario, but seriously how do you forsee this?

There's not going to be any real chance of two-way communication using radio with anything past 200 light years or so. That's a pretty long delay. And just because they're broadcasting doesn't mean they'll be listening for us.

The assumption with all of this is that they'll be creatures essentially like us, with the same basic technology. Personally, I think the odds of that are extremely slim. Still, you never know. Maybe we'll find some other way to communicate in the next few decades (subspace, or whatever), and it'll turn out we were listening to the wrong stuff all along.

The OP touched on this a little bit, that it'll be jsut as miraculous that we can talk to the aliens as them actualyl existing. I would imagine the point is that if they're not using radio waves to transmit signals, they might be too much different from us to communicate.

There is another problem, the "angels or apes" scenario. It goes like this- The universe is 14 billions years old. The Earth is 4 billion years old. Human life is 1 million years old. Human civilization is about 10,000 years old.

What are the odds that if we do contact an alien civilization, that it will be anywhere close to us on the technologicla scale? Probably nil. the odds are much, much greater that we'll find alien life, even if it's intelligent, that is not civilized- apes.

On the other hand, imagine human life is 100 years. 1000 years. 100,000 years. These are blniks in the age of the universe, but incomprehensible to us. Assuming our civilziaiton doesn't fall, in 100,000 years humans will very likey be a postsingularity civilzatio beyondcurrent human understanding- Angels.

Now I don't necessarilly beleive in thsi view, but it is a rela possibility. Anges or Apes, but almot never Men.

reply to post by Esoterica


I believe the universe is a lot older than humans think, (infinite mabey). How can we be sure that 14 billion years is anywhere accurate? how can we even be sure on how old earth is? they make an educated guess but a guess none the less imo. I think its possible that there are ET's that have been developing/evoling for billions of years.

Originally posted by Esoterica

On the other hand, imagine human life is 100 years. 1000 years. 100,000 years. These are blniks in the age of the universe, but incomprehensible to us. Assuming our civilziaiton doesn't fall, in 100,000 years humans will very likey be a postsingularity civilzatio beyondcurrent human understanding- Angels.

Now I don't necessarilly beleive in thsi view, but it is a rela possibility. Anges or Apes, but almot never Men.

I see what you mean, what are the chances of us finding intelligent life out there, that is roughly at the same evolutionary stage as us? Like you said, 100,000 years is a second in terms of the life of the galaxy, universe, so not only do we have to find life to begin with, but we have to find life that has evolved recently, then take into consideration the distance they are from us. I wonder if anyone has ever calculated, given a approximate distance from earth, and the time it takes for radio waves to travel, how long ago any signal would have been sent.

I assume that it's possible that any success by SETI will be short lived, as it's highly possible that any civilisation detected using radio waves would have been wiped out by the time it has taken SETI to find it?

reply to post by kiwifoot


well thats one of the big questions, How long does a civilization last?

on how far away they are most seti estimates put the closest civ at 1000 light years away. Thats assuming theres at least 10,000 civs in the galaxy.

Originally posted by yeti101
reply to post by kiwifoot

 

well thats one of the big questions, How long does a civilization last?

on how far away they are most seti estimates put the closest civ at 1000 light years away. Thats assuming theres at least 10,000 civs in the galaxy.

Again I'm just guessing, but would radio waves be detectable and travel for quite a while though? I wonder if they reflect of other bodies in space or does SETI pinpoint their origin, I'll have to do some research on this! I see square eyes in my future!

reply to post by kiwifoot


depends on how powerfull the signal is and what equipment we use to detect it. The ATA-350 seti is building will be able to detect an Aceribo sized radar out to 1000 light years.

more powerfull "beacon" signals could be detected as far away as 60,000 light years.


[edit on 18-4-2009 by yeti101]