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Fed unemployment forecasts way off

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posted on Apr, 13 2009 @ 09:13 AM
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2009 RGE, MS,GS, JPM, MER, say: 9.9, 10, 9.5, 8.7, 9.9%
2009 FED says: 8.7%

2010 RGE, GS, MER, say: 10.5, 10, 10.4%
FED says: 8.2%

seekingalpha.com...

  • RGE Monitor: 2009 - 9.9% and by Q3 2010 – 10.5%, with close to 4.5 million job losses in 2009;
  • Morgan Stanley: 2009 – 10.0%;
  • Goldman: 2009 - 9.5%, and 2010 – 10.0%;
  • JP Morgan: 2009 - 8.7%
  • Merrill: 2009 - 9.9%, and 2010 - 10.4%, with 3.0 million job losses in 2009 (of which well over 1/3 already have happened); and,
  • The Federal Reserve (mid-point): 2009 - 8.7%, 2010 – 8.2%, and 2011 – 7.1.

As RGE Monitor puts it, “Intensifying job losses will put further pressure on consumer spending, raise mortgage, credit card and other debt defaults as households already face wealth loss from housing and stock markets”.




posted on Apr, 13 2009 @ 07:17 PM
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based on past predictions for GDP and "the subprime market being contained" the fed has NONE, zero , zip cred with me as far as accuracy goes......as far as their intention or aim i.e perception management they are able to take care of a few sheep.......although more can see thru their game of managing "positive" expectations



posted on Apr, 13 2009 @ 07:20 PM
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Hm, well is their forecast an average for the entire year? Or for right now? Maybe they think things will improve.

Strange, though. That is a big discrepancy.



posted on Apr, 13 2009 @ 11:49 PM
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Found the Fed link:
www.federalreserve.gov...

In January 2009, these are the predictions:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2009 . . . . . 2010 . . . . .2011 . . . . Longer Run
Unemployment rate . . 8.5 to 8.8 . 8.0 to 8.3 . 6.7 to 7.5 . 4.8 to 5.0


www.federalreserve.gov...
In October 2008, the Fed predictions were:
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2008 . . . . . 2009 . . . . 2010 . . . . 2011
Unemployment rate . . 6.3 to 6.5 . 7.1 to 7.6 . 6.5 to 7.3 . 5.5 to 6.6

I wonder if that's part of the white washing this regime cycle is pushing?

[edit on 13-4-2009 by Dbriefed]



posted on Apr, 14 2009 @ 11:40 PM
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Huh.

Fed forecasts for 2009 unemployment rates:

October 2008 - 7.1-7.6%
January 2009 - 8.5-8.8%
April 2009 - Over 10%
Ref: www.bloomberg.com...

April 14 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said “grim” figures indicate the world’s largest economy shrank steeply last quarter.

“The economic data in the U.S. is quite grim, and I expect a contraction at an equally dismal rate in the first quarter,” Fisher said in a speech today in Hong Kong. He reiterated his prediction that the jobless rate may exceed 10 percent this year.
...
Rising Unemployment

Minutes of the Fed’s most recent meeting in March show that policy makers feared the U.S. economy might fall into a self- reinforcing cycle of rising unemployment and slumping business and consumer spending. That outlook prompted the FOMC to boost its open-market purchases of bonds by $1.15 trillion.

Fisher’s forecast for unemployment to exceed 10 percent goes beyond the expectations of any other Fed official. The jobless rate reached 8.5 percent in March, the highest since 1983.
...




[edit on 14-4-2009 by Dbriefed]



posted on Apr, 17 2009 @ 03:46 AM
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You're going to see 30-40% unemployment before its over.

Though the numbers will never actually show those numbers because they only count people currently collecting benefits, not people who have used their benefits completely and aren't entitled to more.

That's just a personal prediction not based on any current numbers.

[edit on 17-4-2009 by djzombie]



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