The real unemployment rate? Try 15.6%

An 8.5% unemployment rate is unmistakably bad. It's the highest rate since 1983 -- a year that saw double-digit unemployment, nearly 30 commercial bank failures and more than 15% of Americans living below the poverty line.

But the real national unemployment rate is far worse than the U.S. Department of Labor's March figure, announced today, shows. That's because the official rate doesn't include the 3.7 million-plus people who are reluctantly working only part time because of the poor labor market. And it doesn't include the workers who have given up scouring want ads for seemingly nonexistent jobs.

When those folks are added to the numbers, the unemployment rate rises to 15.6%. In March 2008, that number was 9.3%. The Bureau of Labor Statistics began tracking this alternative measure (.pdf file) in 1995.

Full Article Here

This is an interesting rate ... i always thought unemployment meant you were still looking for a job ... but i guess it should start including these people because there are not enough jobs for all of the people who are out of work, so why should they look for something that's not there ... just my opinion ...


what are your thoughts?

WOW, you have been really busy baseball101, I've seen at least a hundred threads from you in the past week! All interesting though.

I heard it was 12% from Celente a while back, i'm sure it could've grown though.

As time goes on less people will be getting unemployment checks, and it may go down to 5% whilst 23% have no jobs!

What i've got to say is, the more Financially Literate you are, the better you will handle the up and coming, unless the SHTF. Then I don't know.

Dow Jones down 206, SaP down 18. Tsk Tsk.

[edit on 7-4-2009 by Republican08]

More important evidence that the fundamentals haven't improved, (despite the recent market rally). Far from it.

The facade simply cannot last much longer.

Well put P4T.

You can put a dress on crap, spray cologne on it, put new shoes on it, apply makeup to it, but still noone is going to take a piece of crap to prom!

I believe the initial fundamentals are good, but the ammendments and numerous changes have tore the constitution piece by piece. No longer are the fundamentals ok.

Like I mentioned above, the crap wasn't always crap, it was once a Tofu Burger, good for you.

Official Dept of Labor.
If you are looking for the RAW number, it is actually 16.2%

Some people are just trying their best to make Sh!t into Apple Butter
with this Economy.

There are seasonally adjusted rates that will make the
number look better.


www.bls.gov...

yes -- in fact some sources say its as high as 18+%...
but its all about the 'official' stastistics... one needs to read between the lines which i'm sure we are all doing better than most non-ATS people...

here's some facts:

Hundreds of Thousands of Unemployed Run Out of Benefits
(AP)

In the coming weeks and months, hundreds of thousands of jobless Americans will exhaust their unemployment benefits, just when it’s never been harder to find a job.

Congress extended unemployment aid twice last year, allowing people to draw a total of up to 59 weeks of benefits. Now, as the recession drags on, a rolling wave of people who were laid off early last year will lose them.

Precise figures are hard to determine, but Wayne Vroman, an economist at the Urban Institute, estimates that up to 700,000 people could exhaust their extended benefits by the second half of this year.

Layoffs are projected to go on, and many economists expect the jobless rate, already at 8.5 percent, to hit 10 percent by year’s end.

[...]

States typically provide 26 weeks of unemployment benefits, an average of about $350 a week.
Last year, Congress tacked on 20 extra weeks of benefits, and later it added 13 additional weeks for people in states hardest-hit by unemployment.


Unemployment has risen so high that in some states a third leg of benefits is kicking in — a new lifeline for many who would otherwise run out. Under federal law, states found to have particularly high unemployment under complex formulas must provide 13 to 20 more weeks[ of benefits.

It has already taken effect in 18 states, twice as many as activated it in either of the last two recessions.

The National Employment Law Project, an advocacy group for low-wage workers, wants more states to change their laws to make it easier for the extended benefits to kick in.

The federal stimulus package provides full federal funding for the extension, ...

April 7, 2009 by republicbroadcasting.org...

this article shows that unemployment is way higher than in either of the last two recessions, & that's why a third extension of unemployment checks will soon be extended to the dozen or so states with radically high unemployment...
something that flies-in-the-face of the BLS 'official' unemployment figures


so, i guess, the administration & govt agencies know the official stastistics are Pollyanna-ish or they wouldn't be theoretically paying some unemployed up to 79 total weeks (if one adds up the weeks in the article)

reply to post by baseball101


I am with St. Udio on this one, unemployment is currently approx 19%, nearing 20%.

US Government does not include in U3 (unemployment we see reported in the news) anyone under 24 years of age and does not collect unemployment insurance. Does not count anyone who is deemed "unemployed for to long", does not include partial employment, under employment, any one aged 65 and older that is unwillingly unemployed, under employed etc.

U3 is basically the most basic report you can possibly have, all recently laid off people that are reported, and collect benefits.

Hell... we could actually see unemployment decrease pretty soon as hundreds of thousands are deemed "unemployed for to long" and fall off U3 registers.

U6 unemployment is probably what this OP Article is referring to, because U6 currently reads 15.8%.

U6 is an official Government statistic. Though many like me believe it is even worse then U6, at around 19%.

reply to post by Rockpuck

At the end of last month we were at 19.8%, according to Shadow Stats, so I wouldn't be surprised if we've already passed 20%, at the current rate of change.

A very interesting post and from a very reputable source. Bravo. There are so many things around from sources that claim to have secret data and knowledge, so I am happy that this is a reputable one.

I find this to be quite disconcerting as far as the nation's stability goes.

However, I would wonder, using the math from the article, what the average unemployment rate is, under this calculation. Similarly, what would be a good rate of unemployment. We typically hear about 5% being full-employ.

This calculation style may say that we typically carry a 8-9% rate. In this case, a 15% unemployment rate is simply a higher number rather than a grave indicator.

Anyhow, good find. Stuff like this is essential for people to know about.

Rockpuck is on it as usual. U-3 is a crap number IMHO. U-6 is a much better guage and it used to be the official number I believe before politicians figured out you don't get re-elected with a high unemployment number.

Rock's numbers sound horrible but he's right it's very possible that we are already hitting 20% real unemployment especially if you count any illegals also not employed currently.

Anecdotaly, part of my job involves asking folks where they work, so many people I ask are unemployed right now.

I have seen a lot of posts that speak of Martial Law in the second half of the year. If there is any credence to that, I think it will be all the people coming off the unemployment rolls starting in June or July as one of the above posters cited.

People are going to be out of work, with no unemployment benefits, and real angry at the government and the banks for screwing this country up so bad.

i agree with Rockpucks numbers but i have a feeling even he is on the lower side of the real number of the unemployed. If he is on the low side its not his fault its damn near impossible to get the real data these days.

i wager to guess the real number is somewhere between 20-25% right now. that's if you add in every catagory of unemployed that Uncle sugar leaves out of the "official" numbers

jefwane is also right on the money. the reason the government gets away with reporting the lower numbers using the U-3 report is because those morons that we elected to congress knows that if the true number of unemployed were to be released and those congressman had high numbers of unemployed in their district the people wouldn't re-elect them.

edit to add i also agree that in the next 2-3 months when the first round of the unemployed no longer receive their benefits its going to get really bad real quick.

I went to the grocery store this evening and the shelves are getting barer and barer each week. so those that still have jobs when the unemployed lose their benefits will be in the streets right along with them fighting for food.

[edit on 4/7/2009 by Mercenary2007]

This is a troubling number and I would wager it’s even higher as there is a class of people who work in black market enterprises that have never been on the books. There is also a class of people who are completely undocumented foreign nationals but living within U.S. Borders. I can’t even guesstimate those additional numbers.

Ominously and pessimistically I would say it’s important to see where this number tops off at eventually as it would stand to reason this would be approximately the number of people who might need to expire in events natural and unnatural.

If you favor the theory that we are all serialized assets to a corporation who profits off of a taxation of our labor and then a taxation of providing sustenance, shelter and entertainment, this would seem like an excessively overstocked situation that calls for a drastic liquidation sale!

I haven’t seen any credible evidence that suggests these market conditions are not being orchestrated purposefully and deliberately. It all smacks of an inventory reduction to me to better manage rapidly depleting natural resources.

The board meeting is now adjourned please return your booklets to the receptionist on the way out.

I was thinking about this the other day, involving the number of people on food stamps is 32.2 million, or roughly ten percent of the population. But this roughly half of the labor force of 65 million. So if the equivalent of half the labor force needs food stamps, then people are much worse off then the official numbers imply.

Based on what I've read, I agree that the real unemployment rate is probably around 20%. Good links all, BTW.

But there's also the UNDERemployment factor to think about.

My dad is an engineer with 25 years of experience. He was laid off last year. What's he doing now? He's basically an office manager. More importantly, what's he earning now? About 2/3 less than what he earned as an engineer.

My husband's employer did massive layoffs. Hubby survived the cuts, but many of his buddies didn't. One of his coworkers, a research scientist, is now working as a science tutor, making less than half of what he did.

A friend of ours worked as a loan officer at a credit union. Laid off. Now working as a cashier at CVS. And again, making less than half of what she did.

I know these folks are *very* lucky compared to those without jobs--sadly, we know plenty of them too. But think about it--none of these people are unemployed in any sense of the word. They can pay the mortgage and feed their families. But that's it. Vacations? New cars? No way! Heck, even a large pepperoni from Luigi's pizzeria is out of the question. So now Luigi's pizzeria has lost the business of both the unemployed and the underemployed and it's forced to close. That's 10 more people without jobs. It's a vicious cycle, and I just don't see a way to stop it. I miss Luigi's pizza too.

So what do you think the rate of unemployment PLUS underemployment is? I'm betting 30-35%




[edit on 8-4-2009 by sweetpeanc]

I believe unemployment figures are higher than reported,

See when the unemployment figures are taken they are taken on the overall nations.

But if you go state by state the numbers will be very sad indeed.

Here in GA unemployment in the northern parts of the state are higher than in the southern parts of the state, already numbers like 13% is not heard off in my neck of the woods and even higher.

And unemployment filling has gone over 100% in many cities.

But when they get the figures as a whole I believe manipulation is been done, to make them look better than they actually are.

Do you guys ever wonder who benefits from this ?

Why were the calculation's changed under Reagan and then futher under Clinton to make things look better.........

The same time the massive offshoring began occuring in the early 80's.....they fudged the numbers to hide the effect that offshoring was having on the economy........they did the once to get numbers they wanted....then when the numbers still crept up....they adjusted them again

This is just one of the thousand acts of deception and orwellian nonsense that is occuring all around the world, and especially in the USA.

They (in effect) are testing the limits of willful ignorance and perception management on the sheeple..........i'm not too sure this will end nicely

Quite right, I believe the Globalist where behind it 100%. If we believe the middle class is stronger than ever we feel confident in spending 10/1 debt ratio with our personal finances. Loose your job, oh you just get another one. The security that no matter how much you spend you'll always, always, always have a job.

But what we where seeing increasing at an alarming rate under the Clinton and Bush administration was that corporations where out sourcing work that cost to much to pay in America. All the while, these jobs, increasingly more skilled.. where disappearing but unemployment was falling.

Then we get saturated with Mexicans illegally here to work those jobs "we didn't want". Now as we can see with "real numbers" 20% unemployed, our jobs where handed to China and India, Mexicans took the lower paying jobs and that 20% of hard working Americans who got screwed by the system are stuck in the middle.

I honestly wonder why no one ever cares about the Middle Class. Doesn't matter what party is in office, the Rich benefit, the Poor benefit, and we pay for all of them.

Free Trade, imo, is the biggest cause of these problems. Couple that with an obscenely corrupt financial system and you basically have our Empire collapsing around us.