Huge earthquake strikes Italian heart

So, I am finally hearing about the aftershocks on the news, even if it is just a blurb on news radio.

So, I count 6 EQs in Central Italy, today, in the span of 2 hours.

What does this mean? And I am not looking for the Scorcha Faal answer...inside joke here at ATS. Seriously, is Italy just going to drop into the ocean? Gaia giving it the boot?

www.emsc-csem.org...

reply to post by pluckynoonez
Star 4 U!

Thank God...a real reply out here...

I don't think Italy will crumble and slide into the sea, but, it's a interesting swarm...

Panic-Sex MIGHT be needed if the Globe doesn't calm down soon...


2009-04-09 05:03:31.4 42.56 N 13.37 E 10 CENTRAL ITALY

And a star for you.

No one else is interested in this? Is there any scientists here on ATS who could weigh-in on this issue?

The toll climbed up to 279, with 40 Missing people (but according to some sources they would be 10), more than 1.600 injured and 28.000 homelesses: of them, 18.000 are hosted in tents and 10.000 in hotels on the coast: to them, we have to add all those who found hospitality with parents, friends etc: including them, the total would be around 70.000 at best.
The first emergency can't be declared concluded yet, and rescuers fear to find more bodies.
Now it's emerging a long series of troubles: many small towns didn't receive a complete assistance, there are still many people sleeping into their cars, many things are still lacking: it is also very difficult to provide with ealth care some categories (handicapped people, old people, babies etc..), despite there are now 8.500 rescuers.
Around one hour ago, in a press release, Enzo Boschi, president of National Earthquake Center - Remote Sensing Lab. stated that all the current events are to be considered ordinary in the contest of the currently ongoing process:
www.repubblica.it...
here, i've filtered the data related to the area in question (L'Aquila) showing the seismic sequence since the big one:

Note: the difference between the magnitude values indicated here id due the fact that they are expressed in Local Magnitude (ML) while elsewhere data can be expressed in moment magnitude scale (MW): this is why here the same earthquake has a value of 5.8 while while, for example, here earthquake.usgs.gov... has a
value of 6.3.
en.wikipedia.org...

The events of April, 7th affected mainly the area around the L'Aquila and its south-eastern surroundings (Onna, Fossa, Ocre), whereas those of April, 9th were localized mainly in the north of L'Aquila, towards Barete, Pizzoli, Campotosto.
The distribution of replies in the map shows very well the area affected by seismic sequence, which extends about 25 km in NorthWest-Southeast direction, parallel to the Apennine chain. The strongest aftershock, detected at 19:47 on April, 7th, has affected the southern sector of the area, close to San Martino d'Ocre, Fossa, San Felice d'Ocre, where were detected aftershocks smaller than the ones of April, 7th. The event of April 9th (Ml = 5.1) is located further north along a more limited extent.
The fault responsible of the main shock is approximately 15 Km. long and shows an immersion from North East towards South West. L'Aquila results to be located exactly above the fault.

www.ingv.it...

Here, stars are the main shocks, the red lines are the faults:


...and this is the fault (in surface) which caused the main shock: it was photographed in

Onna, a small town which over 250 inhabitants suffered 40 deaths
ilcentro.gelocal.it...



ilcentro.gelocal.it...

The map of the seismic events occurred during the last 90 days:

cnt.rm.ingv.it...

Incomplete list of the victims

Images
temi.repubblica.it...

Oh this is not good, News is coming in that a very strong Aftershock has happend rocking central Italy, and as been felt in rome,


More to follow....



MAGNITUDE: mb 4.9

Data provided by: GFU GFZ INGV LED

Latitude = 42.51 N
Longitude = 13.35 E
Origin Time = 19:38:17.5 (UTC)
Depth = 2 Km
RMS = 1.27 sec
Gap = 21 degrees
95% confidence ellipse: - Semi major = 3.0 Km
- Semi minor = 1.8 Km
- Azimuth of major axis = 56 degrees

[edit on 9-4-2009 by asala]

2009-04-10 04:33:04.0 42.46 N 13.35 E 11 ML 3.3 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-10 03:22:23.9 42.65 N 13.48 E 5 ML 3.7 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-09 20:47:00.8 42.49 N 13.28 E 2 ML 3.1 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-09 22:40:05.6 42.52 N 13.28 E 1 ML 3.6 CENTRAL ITALY

Complex Geology Behind Italian Earthquake
www.foxnews.com...

Italy's History of Deadly Earthquakes
www.foxnews.com...

Why Italy Is Particularly Vulnerable to Quake Damage
www.foxnews.com...

Italy Quake Death Toll Hits 283 as Anti-Looting Patrols Increase
www.foxnews.com...

Italy Appeals for International Assistance to Restore Destroyed Monuments
www.foxnews.com...

L'AQUILA, Italy — Italy appealed Thursday for international assistance to restore historic churches, palazzi and other monuments damaged by this week's earthquake, warning it will take years and millions of dollars to repair the treasures, if they can be saved at all.

Some $39.82 million is necessary for early operations alone, such as securing the buildings, Giuseppe Proietti, the secretary-general of Italy's Culture Ministry, told The Associated Press.

The 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck the medieval city of L'Aquila and several other towns in central Italy Monday, leveling buildings and reducing entire blocks to piles of rubble. Many Romanesque, Gothic, Baroque and Renaissance landmarks were damaged, and on Wednesday, teams began inspecting the wreckage.

Proietti said public and private institutions in a number of countries, including Germany and France, have already contacted Italian officials with offers of help. Australians with ancestors from the quake-hit region have pledged assistance, as have universities and other institutions in Italy.

Premier Silvio Berlusconi has suggested that the United States could help as well.

While Proietti said Italy was mainly seeking funding for Italian restorers to do the work, the Vatican has appealed to experts worldwide to volunteer to restore paintings and other treasures from the damaged sites.

More at Link...

Here's a nice Java Viewer...
tsunami.geo.ed.ac.uk...

[edit on 4/10/2009 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by internos


Thank you for your analysis, I will have your baby.

13 EQs today in Italy. When it it stop?

www.emsc-csem.org...

Steve Connor: Deadly fault lines that run down the spine of Italy
www.independent.co.uk...

This region of Italy has a long history of earthquakes dating from long before classical times. It is one of the most seismically active regions of Europe, essentially due to the collision of the tectonic plates of Africa and Europe which pushed up the Apennine mountain range, the geological "backbone" of Italy.

The boundary between the African and European plates is particularly complex in this part of the Mediterranean, and the mountain-building process that created the Apennines has been an active feature of the region's geology and history for millions of years.

Italy is riddled with geological faults, and yesterday's earthquake near L'Aquila in the Abruzzo region, with a magnitude of 5.8 according to Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and 6.3 according to the U.S. Geological Survey, probably was caused by a sudden movement in one of them as a result of the gradual sinking of the Apennines under the force of gravity.

quake.wr.usgs.gov...

"It is only relatively recently that the Apennines were created by being pushed up by tectonic forces, and now they are in the process of collapsing quite rapidly," said Professor Bob Holdsworth, of Durham University, who has studied the area. "The evidence for these earthquakes is everywhere in Italian life, ranging from cataclysmic events recorded throughout history, through to the cliff-like fault scarps across the landscape."

The British Geological Survey said the earthquake's epicentre was close to the town of L'Aquila, about 60 miles north-east of Rome. The earthquake was just 87 miles north-west of a magnitude 5.9 tremor which struck the village of San Giuliano di Puglia on 31 October 2002, killing 28 people. One of the worst recorded earthquakes in the region was in Avezzano in 1915, just 25 miles south of yesterday's quake; that killed 30,000 people.

John Whalley, principal lecturer in earth sciences at Portsmouth University, said there is a belt of seismic activity running parallel to the Apennines down the entire length of the Italian peninsula. "These mountains form part of the major tectonic plate boundary marking the collision zone between the African and European plates," Dr Whalley said. "This collision dominated the geological evolution of southern Europe for most of the past 50 million years and formed the Alps. Though we speak of a collision between two major plates, the collision zone is extremely complex with numerous microplates being trapped as the intervening ocean closed.

"As a consequence of this complexity, the Apennines run almost at right angles to the main trend of the Alps, having been formed when the western half of Italy was pushed over the top of the eastern half. Although the primary west-to-east motion has largely ceased, the area remains extremely unstable."

Dr Whalley said that a study in 2005 found that the town of L'Aquila was built on the bed of an ancient lake which may have amplified the vibrations of the quake, causing even more damage to buildings at the surface. "A magnitude 6.3 earthquake will nearly always be strong enough to cause significant damage but [the study] highlighted an increased risk in this area. The authors showed that the city was underlain by weak sediments, up to 820ft thick, which had accumulated in an ancient lake."

David Rothery, a senior lecturer in earth science at the Open University, said: "A magnitude 6 quake in the same region in 1997 took 11 lives and destroyed 80,000 homes. The latest quake was moderately large but more significantly shallow – its depth is preliminarily estimated at only six miles – so the shaking it caused at the surface was large. I expect the death toll will rise. Italian colleagues who arrived today from Rome and Padova felt the quake for themselves. Fabrizio, my colleague from Rome, was already awake, and, according to him, his house shook for 20 seconds."

Roger Musson, of the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh, said routine earthquake prediction is not possible anywhere and, that given the chaotic nature of earthquake occurrence, it may never be possible. "In the case of the L'Aquila earthquake, some warning might have been taken by the series of foreshocks that preceded it," he said. "But there is no way to discriminate between foreshocks and normal small-magnitude seismicity, other than with hindsight. Aftershock activity has been intense. The possibility of a further event of similar magnitude cannot be ruled out."

More than 100 people in the Abruzzo region were crushed when their homes collapsed. Enzo Boschi, the chairman of Italy's National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology in Bologna, said: "The damage involved buildings which were not built to withstand a quake that was not even particularly strong. It is always distressing to note that we do not have the mentality to build adequate structures in areas at risk of seismic activity. In other words, we don't construct buildings to withstand quakes nor do we revamp old ones to make them safe from collapse.

"We have detailed maps which indicate the areas most at risk of earthquakes and we have also indicated what actions are needed to make buildings safe. But little or nothing has been done."

World Wide Plates
farm1.static.flickr.com...

3 days after quake, some shops reopen
www.msnbc.msn.com...

[edit on 4/9/2009 by Hx3_1963]

2009-04-10 03:22:23.6 42.49 N 13.42 E 2 mb 4.0 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-10 04:33:04.0 42.46 N 13.35 E 11 ML 3.3 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-10 06:41:31.0 42.52 N 13.34 E 9 ML 3.0 CENTRAL ITALY

Italian quake turns bucolic town into ghostly ruin
uk.reuters.com...

ONNA, Italy (Reuters) - It took only a few minutes to turn this tranquil town of farmers and artisans into a desolate spectacle of horses and hens wandering aimlessly amid a tangle of stone and steel.

After 1,000 years of being called home, Onna was no more.

The earthquake that struck central Italy on Monday killed about 40 residents, or 13 percent of the population, making it one of the towns worst hit. Firemen said 90 percent of houses -- or what's left of them -- will have to be razed to the ground.

"The most spectacular thing about the quake was not even the impact but just the sound of the entire town crumbling around us," said Paolo Ferroni, 60, who managed to escape with his wife but is now homeless.

His son, who lived nearby, escaped by tying sheets together and lowering himself from his apartment window, he said.

"See this house here right next to mine? One woman died there. There, two houses down, another person died. And there next to it, three people died. And there, see that heap in the field? 50 sheep died there," he said, pointing to a row of wrecked houses and a plot of land in front.

The few residents still around the deserted town each had a story of terror to tell and could count relatives who perished. The national death toll rose to 250 on Wednesday. About 17,000 people have been made homeless.

"We were sleeping, and out of nowhere came a loud roar," said Virgilio Colajani, 70. "I ran out and there was a woman over 90 standing on her balcony yelling 'Help, help' while her helper begged for a ladder. Another man was on his knees in the darkness, going through a little book with a light, searching for the phone number of his son. His wife died."

More at Link...

[edit on 4/10/2009 by Hx3_1963]

It has been very conforting to read your posts, to realize that this tragedy didn't get unnoticed: thank you everyone pluckynoonez, of course a prediction is impossible:
we can say that according to the standard models, which basically are a mix of statistic data and real time data, we can say for sure that aftershocks will last for a long time, likely a couple of months to say the least:
there are many possible scenarios, most of them relatively encouraging but some of them definately catastrophical.
Most likely, according to statistics and to what has been detected so far, we will see a series of aftershocks averagely decreasing in strenght(meaning that every now and then we will have strong shocks but the average magnitude of them will be decreasing in strenght but increasing in frequency: a very rough example would be:

80 aftershocks 4.5 mag. alternated with
some random stronger and weaker aftershocks

then

120 aftershocks 4 mag. alternated with
some random stronger and weaker aftershocks

then

160 aftershocks 3.5 mag. alternated with
some random stronger and weaker aftershocks

then

250 aftershocks 3.0 mag. alternated with
some random stronger and weaker aftershocks

and so on, until the end of the swarm.

Very rough as said, and just to be applied to that specific area and to that specific circumstance.
Strong aftershocks may occur at any time, and even the hypothesys of another earthquake, stronger than the big one, can't be ruled out (that would be a so called seismic couple, a rare occurrence, but it has already happened, more than once, in Italy, with devastating effects ).
For example, we had a main Earthquake fourth month after the big one, but the second was much stronger than the first one.
But if events will proceed according to statistic (and often they do), then all will be ok, we will attend to the natural death of the earthquake; but people have to be very careful in the area, they shouldn't make the mistake to believe that all is gone because there's something moving right below their feet right now, and no one knows what really is happening down there

Hx3_1963: thanks for sharing these articles
Enzo Boschi, mentioned in one of them, is the chairman of INGV; ( www.ingv.it... )
he is likely the man who knows more about seismic activities in the area than anyone else, and he said basically all that is needed to know: to build houses able to withstand earthquakes. Ironically enough, Italian CNR was able to develop this:


It's called Sofie (Sistema Costruttivo Fiemme) or X-Lam, (Cross Laminated Timber) and it can withstand eartquakes up to 7.2 LM richter (6.8 USGS), (the last one was 5.8 LM): it's a 7 floors building and it was tested by the Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Research Center of Miki, Japan:
www.bosai.go.jp...
it born from a german project ten years ago, but the whole development and building were made in Italy.
At Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Research Center, they simulated the same earthquake that on 1995 devastated Kobe (Japan) killing 6,434 people ( see Great Hanshin earthquake ).

On the 23rd of October 2007 international researchers, politicians and entrepreneurs coming from United States, Canada, Korea, India and New Zealand were all gathered in Miki, a small Japanese town that houses the National Research Institute of Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, the most important anti-seismic laboratory, where a seven-storey building – 23.5 meters of height – survived Kobe’s earthquake simulation. For the first time since 1995, when a devastating earthquake, known as “Great Haushin-Awaji”, shaked an entire village in Kobe and caused nearly six thousand victims, a wooden structure successfully survived such a blast.
Yoshimitsu Okada, one of the leading ant-seismic experts, applauded Italy’s project, called “SOFIE”, claiming that it is an innovation destined to change worldwide building techniques.

www.sciencenew.eu...
progettosofie.ruby-lang.eu...
progettosofie.ruby-lang.eu...


Regarding the sentence (from "the independent" )

Italy is riddled with geological faults, and yesterday's earthquake near L'Aquila in the Abruzzo region, with a magnitude

of 5.8 according to Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and 6.3 according to the U.S. Geological Survey

they seem to talk about two sources getting two different results from the same event: but actually, Italy's National Institute of Geophysics used the Local Magnitude Scale, while the U.S. Geological Survey used the Moment Magnitude Scale: the difference is just because of that. I point it out because the article seems to imply that there is no correspondence between the two, and 0.5 at those levels of the scale would be a huge difference between the data gathered by the two, while they are the same values, but just interpreted/expressed in different ways.


__________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________

Rest in peace

State funeral for the victims today, while the toll reached 289 victims.
Today is Day of National Mourning: the shops closed in all the Country during the funerals, flags at half mast everywhere:


Italy silently cried for the victims, the atmosphere was and is surreal.
28,000 people had lost their homes in the earthquake, with 17,000 now living in tents and the rest in free hotel rooms or staying with family. There are 1600 injured people with 100+ of them severely injured.
This is the worse moment, the one in which people will really realize what happened, many of them will get discouraged only now: many of them will react, many of them will give up.
It is very important that they'll react, and on top of that it is vital to don't leave them alone.
Friuli, another italian region, is a shiny example of reaction: before the earthquake it was a depressed region, now it's one of the most well-in regions of Italy.
If Friuli managed to, then also Abruzzo has to.

Countries from all the world expressed their solidarity, from South Korea to India, From Israel to Canada, from Germany to United States, from Iraq to Russia and more, more more...
In L'Aquila some shops already re-opened, and the university might re-open very soon, as well as some offices; they are signals that could have a very positive effect on the other people, because they are signs of life.

2009-04-10 11:53:09.0 42.24 N 13.48 E 10 ML 3.1 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-10 15:22:43.0 42.25 N 13.48 E 10 ML 3.0 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-10 15:07:20.0 42.36 N 13.31 E 8 ML 2.9 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-10 15:46:17.7 42.36 N 13.34 E 2 ML 3.3 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-10 19:07:21.0 42.38 N 13.39 E 10 ML 3.1 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-11 03:14:30.0 42.38 N 13.38 E 10 ML 2.9 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-11 05:39:00.1 42.40 N 13.37 E ML 3.3 CENTRAL ITALY

Italy's Day Of Mourning For Quake Victims
www.cbsnews.com...

[edit on 4/11/2009 by Hx3_1963]

2009-04-11 06:57:06.3 42.47 N 13.37 E 165 ML 3.2 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-11 07:04:09.8 42.09 N 12.76 E 25 ML 3.2 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-11 13:56:01.0 42.41 N 13.35 E 10 ML 2.9 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-11 15:42:29.0 42.52 N 13.32 E 9 ML 3.1 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-11 16:18:34.0 42.26 N 13.49 E 9 ML 2.8 CENTRAL ITALY


Italian earthquake: 200 mourned at state funeral
www.telegraph.co.uk...

Mourners Collapse as Italy Quake Victims Laid to Rest
www.foxnews.com...

Hopes dim in search for survivors of Italian quake
www.reuters.com...

[edit on 4/11/2009 by Hx3_1963]

2009-04-11 18:20:34.0 42.49 N 13.36 E 8 ML 2.8 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-11 20:22:04.0 42.26 N 13.48 E 10 ML 2.8 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-11 19:53:53.0 42.35 N 13.53 E 10 ML 3.0 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-12 03:29:36.7 42.54 N 13.25 E 2 ML 3.1 CENTRAL ITALY
2009-04-12 08:13:01.9 46.33 N 12.96 E 2 ML 2.9 NORTHERN ITALY
2009-04-12 09:48:58.0 42.36 N 13.38 E 10 ML 3.2 CENTRAL ITALY

And on it goes...

Hi everyone,I'm italian,the situation was very sad for us...fortunatly I live in Rome and in my city the earthquake wasn't so hard..but near Aquila there was many deahts...poor people and families!!I hope really that the situation will improve..

ATS members in Italy: know that you are not forgotten .. people I know where talking about this event just yesterday, and there is much sympathy for everyone there who has been touched by this tragedy.

Italy Quake Reconstruction to Cost at Least $16 Billion
www.foxnews.com...

ROME — The region in central Italy ravaged by an earthquake more than a week ago will need at least $16 billion for rebuilding, the country's interior minister said.

As some children started going back to school, experts were assessing the damage at buildings that were still standing. Prosecutors were investigating alleged shoddy construction in the area.

Interior Minister Roberto Maroni said the government would consult with local administrators, including opposition officials, while it seeks resources to rebuild the Abruzzo region. Maroni provided the estimate late Tuesday on state television.

More at Link...

Berlusconi Vows to Keep Mafia Out of Abruzzo Earthquake Reconstruction
www.bloomberg.com...

Italy Premier Belusconi Says Some Homes Will Be Provided by End of Summer
www.bloomberg.com...

[edit on 4/16/2009 by Hx3_1963]