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Total solar output is now measured to vary (over the last three 11-year sunspot cycles) by approximately 0.1% or about 1.3 W/m² peak-to-trough during the 11 year sunspot cycle. The amount of solar radiation received at the outer surface of Earth's atmosphere averages 1,366 watts per square meter (W/m²). There are no direct measurements of the longer-term variation and interpretations of proxy measures of variations differ. On the low side North et. al. report results suggesting ~ 0.1% variation over the last 2,000 years. Others suggest the change has been ~ 0.2% increase in solar irradiance just since the 17th century. The combination of solar variation and volcanic effects are likely to have contributed to climate change, for example during the Maunder Minimum. Apart from solar brightness variations, more subtle solar magnetic activity influences on climate from cosmic rays or the Sun's ultraviolet radiation cannot be excluded although confirmation is not at hand since physical models for such effects are still too poorly developed.
And to think modern scientists have all the answers would be kidding yourself too.
Originally posted by v3_exceed
reply to post by BlasteR
disturbing. As our planet relies heavily on the suns heliosphere to protect us from the rest of the solar systems radiation, a reduction in that protection it must be considered when examining causes for global temperature variations. The magnetosphere of the earth also helps, but it's being pretty weird these days.
Originally posted by atlasastro
reply to post by SourGrapes
We are at solar minimum now. Have been for a while. In fact it has been longer than expected. My country saw some of the most extreme heat waves this summer, in solar minimum? Wonder what it would have been like if we were at normal solar activity.
...........
Originally posted by SourGrapes
reply to post by Kryties
I was about to post something similar, but you beat me to it!
I think that most of us agree on the Global Warming, it's the cause that is up for debate.
I may not be a scientist, but I am a skeptic. I'm intrigued by very word: WHY. I probably use that word 328 times a day (I drove my parents nuts when I was a kid - often times referred to as the 'why' I'm an only child). Why is Global warming such a huge movement? Why spend so much energy (pun) and resources (yet another pun) on an inevitable event that we have little, if any, control over?
Sun Blamed for Warming of Earth and Other Worlds
Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says
Global warming on other planets in the solar system
What's next? Global carbon credits for the sun? I don't think I want to see a green sun.
[edit on 5-4-2009 by SourGrapes]
[SNIP] No scientist on the planet is saying that there are not natural temperature fluctuations - NONE. Nor that there are global temperature fluctuations, ice ages, hot periods etc. NOT ONE. No scientist is saying we are not effected by the suns fluctuations - NONE. No scientist is saying that there are not natural fluctuations within the the earth's own biosphere, that weather in one area can impact another -NONE. And finally NO scientist is saying that they have all the answers ....... What is being said is that within the normal temperature fluctuations of the Earth's cycles going back hundreds of thousands (and in some records millions) of years we are able to create a very definitive picture of the earth's temperatures, glacial mass, polar mass, water levels, the fluctuations of these indicators and build a very clear picture of the "norms" of these fluctuations. Yes the scientists HAVE ALREADY TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION NATURAL FLUCTUATIONS OF THE SUN< THE CYCLES OF COOLING AND WARMING ETC - yes they are smart enough to consider these things. What is concerning is that temperature levels are heading to a state which are well outside of where they should be, in fact we should be heading into a cooling phase (this is why so many scientists claimed we were heading into a new ice age in the 60's ) - because the earth SHOULD be trying to cool itself at this point as we are at the APEX of the hot cycle. Unfortunately we are continuing to get hotter and this is completely outside the bounds of the normal cyclical nature of warming and cooling. The erruption of volcanoes, the natural HIGH Co2 content of the early earth atmosphere have all ALSO been taken into consideration and we are also seeing levels of this beyond any normal state - it is measurable - and the effects have been predicted for well over 50 years and they are now definitively proving that global warming as a man man condition outside the bounds of normal fluctuations is an absolute fact. NOW GET OVER IT - there is no why, there is no but, and if you think there is then read one of the 300 books on the issue explaining it rather than constantly relying on any ridiculous piece of far fetched clap trap dragged up by scientific deviants. Questioning global warming was a practice devised by the Lavoisier group who hired senator Inhoffe and the marketing agency behind the Big Tobacco idea that smoking causes cancer is up for debate when in fact it was a known fact for 40 years. If you think that global warming is a myth then you are a stooge of the big oil companies - Please read "The Republican War On Science" to understand this. I challenge ANYONE to present to me a single piece of CREDIBLE evidence which has not already been thoroughly dis-proven. I have laid this challenge down repeatedly on every Global Warming Thread and have not ONCE received a single piece of CREDIBLE evidence beyond clap trap regarding solar warming, galactic planetary temperature fluctuations, seasonal or even regional variations, and worst of all an EMAIL campaign.... Now a single piece of evidence by a recognised authority which has been received in a peer reviewed scientific journal - there is none. NOT ONE. Now for all of those who ask WHY ? or who question this GO READ SOME BOOKS - seriously you are embarrassing yourselves.
Originally posted by mirageofdeceit
reply to post by BlasteR
And to think modern scientists have all the answers would be kidding yourself too.
STAR for this point alone!
We know very little in reality, about anything. Our science works (rockets, cars, aircraft), but we don't understand why the Moon is slowly moving away from the Earth and not towards it as you might think it would, or how the ends of galaxies keep swirling around instead of flying off into space.
Oceanic Influences on Recent Continental Warming
GILBERT P. COMPO
PRASHANT D. SARDESHMUKH
Climate Diagnostics Center,
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado, and
Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
325 Broadway R/PSD1
Boulder CO 80305-3328
[email protected]
(303) 497-6115
(303) 497-6449
Citation:
Compo, G.P., and P.D. Sardeshmukh, 2008: Oceanic influences on recent continental warming. Climate
Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0448-9.
This article is published by Springer-Verlag. This author-created version is distributed courtesy of Springer-Verlag.
The original publication is available from www.springerlink.com at
www.springerlink.com...
Abstract
Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land.
Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes, account for most of the land warming. The oceanic influence has occurred through hydrodynamic-radiative teleconnections, primarily by moistening and warming the air over land and increasing the downward longwave radiation at the surface. The oceans may themselves have warmed from a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences.
Study finds Arctic seabed afire with lava-spewing volcanoes
The Arctic seabed is as explosive geologically as it is politically judging by the "fountains" of gas and molten lava that have been blasting out of underwater volcanoes near the North Pole.
“Explosive volatile discharge has clearly been a widespread, and ongoing, process,” according to an international team that sent unmanned probes to the strange fiery world beneath the Arctic ice.
They returned with images and data showing that red-hot magma has been rising from deep inside the earth and blown the tops off dozens of submarine volcanoes, four kilometres below the ice. “Jets or fountains of material were probably blasted one, maybe even two, kilometres up into the water,” says geophysicist Robert Sohn of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, who led the expedition.
Boiling Hot Water Found in Frigid Arctic Sea
By LiveScience Staff
posted: 24 July 2008 04:51 pm ET
Many miles inside the Arctic Circle, scientists have found elusive vents of scalding liquid rising out of the seafloor at temperatures that are more than twice the boiling point of water.
The cluster of five hydrothermal vents, also called black smokers, were discovered farther north than any others previously identified. The vents, one of which towers four stories high, are located on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge between Greenland and Norway, more than 120 miles farther north than other known vents.
Remotely operated vehicles photographed the scene as part of an expedition led by Rolf Pedersen, a geologist at the University of Bergen in Norway.
Black smokers have been found in many deep-sea locations, including on the Juan de Fuca Ridge off Washington and British Columbia. Despite the lack of sunlight to power life in the abyss, the vents often support unique communities of creatures that live off their warmth and chemicals. Some scientists think the vents would have been great locales for the origin of life on Earth.
Heat From Earth's Magma Contributing To Melting Of Greenland Ice
ScienceDaily (Dec. 18, 2007) — Scientists have discovered what they think may be another reason why Greenland 's ice is melting: a thin spot in Earth's crust is enabling underground magma to heat the ice.
They have found at least one “hotspot” in the northeast corner of Greenland -- just below a site where an ice stream was recently discovered.
The researchers don't yet know how warm the hotspot is. But if it is warm enough to melt the ice above it even a little, it could be lubricating the base of the ice sheet and enabling the ice to slide more rapidly out to sea.
Volcanic eruptions reshape Arctic ocean floor: study
by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) June 25, 2008
Recent massive volcanoes have risen from the ocean floor deep under the Arctic ice cap, spewing plumes of fragmented magma into the sea, scientists who filmed the aftermath reported Wednesday.
The eruptions -- as big as the one that buried Pompei -- took place in 1999 along the Gakkel Ridge, an underwater mountain chain snaking 1,800 kilometres (1,100 miles) from the northern tip of Greenland to Siberia.
Melting Glacier Shows Heat Under Alaskan Volcano
Dan Joling, Associated Press
Feb. 2, 2009 -- Geologists monitoring Mount Redoubt for signs of a possible eruption noticed that a hole in the glacier clinging to the north side of the volcano had doubled in size overnight -- and now spans the length of two football fields.
Scientists with the Alaska Volcano Observatory on Friday flew close to Drift Glacier and spotted vigorous steam emitted from a hole on the mountain. By Saturday, they had confirmed the area was a fumarole, an opening in the earth that emits gases and steam, that was increasing in size at an alarming rate.
They also saw water streaming down the glacier, indicating heat from magma is reaching higher elevations of the mountain.
"The glacier is sort of falling apart in the upper part," research geologist Kristi Wallace said.
Antarctic glaciers surge to ocean
By Martin Redfern
Rothera Research Station, Antarctica
...........
"The measurements from last season seem to show an incredible acceleration, a rate of up to 7%. That is far greater than the accelerations they were getting excited about in the 1990s."
The reason does not seem to be warming in the surrounding air.
One possible culprit could be a deep ocean current that is channelled onto the continental shelf close to the mouth of the glacier. There is not much sea ice to protect it from the warm water, which seems to be undercutting the ice and lubricating its flow.
Ongoing monitoring
Julian Scott, however, thinks there may be other forces at work as well.
Much higher up the course of the glacier there is evidence of a volcano that erupted through the ice about 2,000 years ago and the whole region could be volcanically active, releasing geothermal heat to melt the base of the ice and help its slide towards the sea.
Thousand of new volcanoes revealed beneath the waves
10:04 09 July 2007 by Catherine Brahic
For similar stories, visit the Mysteries of the Deep Sea Topic Guide
The true extent to which the ocean bed is dotted with volcanoes has been revealed by researchers who have counted 201,055 underwater cones. This is over 10 times more than have been found before.
The team estimates that in total there could be about 3 million submarine volcanoes, 39,000 of which rise more than 1000 metres over the sea bed.
"The distribution of underwater volcanoes tells us something about what is happening in the centre of the Earth," says John Hillier of the University of Cambridge in the UK. That is because they give information about the flows of hot rock in the mantle beneath. "But the problem is that we cannot see through the water to count them," he says.
Satellites can detect volcanoes that are more than 1500 m high because the mass of the submerged mountains causes gravity to pull the water in around them. This creates domes on the ocean's surface that can be several metres high and can be detected from space.
Originally posted by BlasteR
Originally posted by mirageofdeceit
reply to post by BlasteR
And to think modern scientists have all the answers would be kidding yourself too.
STAR for this point alone!
We know very little in reality, about anything. Our science works (rockets, cars, aircraft), but we don't understand why the Moon is slowly moving away from the Earth and not towards it as you might think it would, or how the ends of galaxies keep swirling around instead of flying off into space.
Thanks for that, Mirage. I completely agree with you! I don't want to stray too far off-topic here but wanted to give the lay-people some info on the moon-receding statement.
Like you said, we know the moon is receding from earth at a pretty constant/steady rate (about 35mm/year). Not exactly fast by human standards, but pretty fast by geologic standards. We have confirmed this with the LLRE (Lunar Laser Ranging Experiment) put in place on the moon during Apollo 11 and the two LRRR (Lunar Ranging Retro Reflectors) arrays put in place by Apollo 14 and 15. There are also arrays positioned on the moon by old Russian spacecraft.
en.wikipedia.org...
Scientists, working in conjunction with NASA, fire a laser at the arrays every day to take measurements. A couple years ago on the National Geographic Channel they showed how it was all done (It was actually on an "Is it Real" television show based around the question of whether or not the Apollo moon landings were hoaxed).
On the bigger point you were making though, you are absolutely right. I have been saying this for years. Science is not so straight forward. How you view the certainty of all scientific data sometimes depends on how you, personally, define the word "Science" too.. I don't think the average Joe really even knows what science really represents (not just what it means). Here is my shpeel on "Science"..
Science is an always on-going pursuit of knowledge and understanding of the world around us. It is a search for facts and truth about the universe and our place in it. Our current scientific understanding consists of both what we have confirmed to be true and what we have not. With many different phenomenon, the result of scientific endeavours is a theoretical "Best guess". Mainstream scientists within areas of acadamea, public and private institutions seem to have a biases (hunches) which causes them to lean towards these "Best guess" theories for a variety of different reasons. Sometimes, just depending on the topic, scientists commit professional and academic suicide by going against the scientific majority. This makes no sense..
The "paranormal" is a great example of this. The scientific best guess is that the paranormal can't be real. But, yet, mainstream scientific professionals laugh at the idea without really having any answers themselves. Therefore, a negative stigma is associated with any scientist that goes against the collective concensus of what phenomenon is real and what isn't. The scientists will claim the paranormal can't exist because there isn't enough evidence. But why is that? The real reason is because none of the scientists will do the research in the first place in fear of losing research grants, their jobs, public support, social status, and the respect of their peers. When this has nothing to do with the phenomenon being real or not real in the first place..
Then, due to the lack of scientific support, normal every-day people are forced to investigate the paranormal because, in most cases, noone else will. But when they catch evidence of something they see as substantial, the scientists can claim that it is irrelevant since the research wasn't conducted by actual scientists using the scientific process. Then writers and investigators get slammed by mainstream scientists like Michio Kaku because, as per his view, "they have to advocate the paranormal". But if the scientific community was paying attention in the first place, they would know why that is. It is because, despite whatever they might say, sometimes the facts really do contradict the majority consensus of scientific understanding. Yet they still continue to defend their positions on the issue based around their "Best Guess" conclusions without having all the facts. Scientists hate to admit when they might be wrong!...........................
Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
Oceanic Influences on Recent Continental Warming
GILBERT P. COMPO
PRASHANT D. SARDESHMUKH
Climate Diagnostics Center,
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences,
University of Colorado, and
Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
325 Broadway R/PSD1
Boulder CO 80305-3328
[email protected]
(303) 497-6115
(303) 497-6449
Citation:
Compo, G.P., and P.D. Sardeshmukh, 2008: Oceanic influences on recent continental warming. Climate
Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-008-0448-9.
This article is published by Springer-Verlag. This author-created version is distributed courtesy of Springer-Verlag.
The original publication is available from www.springerlink.com at
www.springerlink.com...
Abstract
Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land.
Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes, account for most of the land warming. The oceanic influence has occurred through hydrodynamic-radiative teleconnections, primarily by moistening and warming the air over land and increasing the downward longwave radiation at the surface. The oceans may themselves have warmed from a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences.
ETC, ETC, ETC..................
What on earth is this ? Are you totally mad ?
Are you presenting this as the cause of global warming ? Or are you saying there are other "things" which are hot. Either way your post is an laughable - utterly laughable in every single way.
Yes there are going to be areas where melt water may increase due to volcanic activity - (have you ever been to Iceland or Greenland ?) However This in now way accounts for the sea ice retreat, the universal melting of glaciers ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE ARE no volcanoes.
i cant believe I am even dignifying this post with a response. Honestly do you seriously believe that of the hundreds of thousands of scientist who all un8iversally agree on global warming that they just overlooked your WHIZ BANG theory that its all down to venting of magma ? Get a grip.
[edit on 15-4-2009 by audas]
Originally posted by audas
No scientist on the planet is saying that there are not natural temperature fluctuations - NONE.
Originally posted by audas
What is being said is that within the normal temperature fluctuations of the Earth's cycles going back hundreds of thousands (and in some records millions) of years we are able to create a very definitive picture of the earth's temperatures, glacial mass, polar mass, water levels, the fluctuations of these indicators and build a very clear picture of the "norms" of these fluctuations.
Originally posted by audas
Yes the scientists HAVE ALREADY TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION NATURAL FLUCTUATIONS OF THE SUN< THE CYCLES OF COOLING AND WARMING ETC - yes they are smart enough to consider these things.
Originally posted by audas
What is concerning is that temperature levels are heading to a state which are well outside of where they should be, in fact we should be heading into a cooling phase (this is why so many scientists claimed we were heading into a new ice age in the 60's ) - because the earth SHOULD be trying to cool itself at this point as we are at the APEX of the hot cycle. Unfortunately we are continuing to get hotter and this is completely outside the bounds of the normal cyclical nature of warming and cooling.
Originally posted by audas
The erruption of volcanoes, the natural HIGH Co2 content of the early earth atmosphere have all ALSO been taken into consideration and we are also seeing levels of this beyond any normal state - it is measurable - and the effects have been predicted for well over 50 years and they are now definitively proving that global warming as a man man condition outside the bounds of normal fluctuations is an absolute fact.
Originally posted by audas
Please read "The Republican War On Science" to understand this.
Originally posted by audas
I challenge ANYONE to present to me a single piece of CREDIBLE evidence which has not already been thoroughly dis-proven. I have laid this challenge down repeatedly on every Global Warming Thread and have not ONCE received a single piece of CREDIBLE evidence beyond clap trap regarding solar warming, galactic planetary temperature fluctuations, seasonal or even regional variations, and worst of all an EMAIL campaign....
Originally posted by audas
Now a single piece of evidence by a recognised authority which has been received in a peer reviewed scientific journal - there is none. NOT ONE.
Now for all of those who ask WHY ? or who question this GO READ SOME BOOKS - seriously you are embarrassing yourselves.
Originally posted by audas
ETC, ETC, ETC..................
What on earth is this ? Are you totally mad ?
Are you presenting this as the cause of global warming ? Or are you saying there are other "things" which are hot. Either way your post is an laughable - utterly laughable in every single way.
Yes there are going to be areas where melt water may increase due to volcanic activity - (have you ever been to Iceland or Greenland ?) However This in now way accounts for the sea ice retreat, the universal melting of glaciers ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE ARE no volcanoes.
i cant believe I am even dignifying this post with a response. Honestly do you seriously believe that of the hundreds of thousands of scientist who all un8iversally agree on global warming that they just overlooked your WHIZ BANG theory that its all down to venting of magma ? Get a grip.
Ice bridge ruptures in Antarctic
Originally posted by ElectricUniverse
Originally posted by audas
ETC, ETC, ETC..................
What on earth is this ? Are you totally mad ?
Are you presenting this as the cause of global warming ? Or are you saying there are other "things" which are hot. Either way your post is an laughable - utterly laughable in every single way.
Yes there are going to be areas where melt water may increase due to volcanic activity - (have you ever been to Iceland or Greenland ?) However This in now way accounts for the sea ice retreat, the universal melting of glaciers ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE ARE no volcanoes.
i cant believe I am even dignifying this post with a response. Honestly do you seriously believe that of the hundreds of thousands of scientist who all un8iversally agree on global warming that they just overlooked your WHIZ BANG theory that its all down to venting of magma ? Get a grip.
Did you stop to read the subject of this thread?...
This thread is not about your myth of Global Warming....
this thread is about, and I quote:
Ice bridge ruptures in Antarctic
Learn how to discuss a topic, and after you grow up, and finally learn how to properly debate come back here and show us you actually learned how to read....