Doom & Gloom

The stock market is rallying, oil prices have fallen below $48 a barrel, the Energy Department has announced stockpiles of crude rose by 2.8 million barrels over the past week, peak oil appears to be decades off. There are still no hordes of zombies outside, people are not rioting in the streets, and the world as we know it continues to plod along.

And yet, the doom continues.

In fact, none of the promised disasters have hit. The government has not declared a bank holiday. No big earthquake has rocked the US. Store shelves have not gone empty. There are no long lines to buy gasoline. We have not been thrust into the technological Dark Ages.

And still, the doom continues.

On one hand, we perpetuate the myth because it has this sort of delicious excitement to it, like that urge to look at a wreck as you drive past. You don’t want it to happen, but for some reason it is so darn interesting you can’t turn it off. It is very easy to get caught up in all the negative news out there and believe we’re really headed for disaster.

It's far more interesting than working on your taxes or decided what to cook for dinner.

That’s not to say things haven’t been tough economically. Yes, some people have been laid off, retirement accounts have been decimated, homes sales are flat, and a few businesses are closing their doors. Yet, we all know it certainly hasn’t been as bad as we expected.

If we believe the government isn’t telling us how bad things really are, perhaps there are people and organizations who have a vested interest in making us believe things are much worse than reality?

If certain groups will use propaganda to get the populace to support their need for a bailout or protection, doesn’t logic tell you that other organizations would use the same tactics for selfish purposes?

Let’s take the gun and ammunition situation. There was a lot of discussion about banning one or both immediately after Obama took office, and neither happened. Gunsmiths were positively giddy at all the business, ammo prices about doubled and demand artificially inflated prices which further fueled the belief that, “You had better buy a gun soon.” In reality, supply was negatively impacted not by government intervention, but by panic buying.

The same type of scenario has been seen in the heirloom seed industry, gardening suppliers, emergency equipment, gold dealers, and freeze dried food companies.

Recently, I contacted a large, online book retailer who sells a lot of survival gear regarding an affiliate advertising a number of their products. This website was completely over the top, it had information about how to butcher and cook a human including a warning to avoid eating the brains, it contained literally thousands of obscenities, there was lively discussion regard sex with animals, and there appeared to be little to no oversight. Examples of these problems were sent to the retailer.

The company’s response? Automated, of course. The company aid it “does not take a position on the social or political agenda of any of our affiliates.” I was unaware that threatening to shoot a fellow member in the face was a “social agenda.” Based on the lack of response to my repeated attempts to email a human being to discuss this matter beyond an autoresponder, I am personally led to believe that some of these retailers do not care, as long as you sell lots of their tents and camp stoves.

Why should they? These companies benefit from doom and gloomers, the peddlers of disaster porn, the purveyors of fuel depletion; therefore, it is in their best interest to keep the public on high alert.

That’s not to say you shouldn’t prepare for a disaster, have a three-day supply of food on hand, and perhaps a way to defend yourself. But maybe we would all do well to pass this information through our own filters and realize that if people can manipulate the public into taking on a bigger mortgage than they can afford, perhaps there are people who want you to believe it’s all about to collapse, we'll be thrust into the dark ages and that you'd better get a year supply of MREs.

In the end, it is still the big corporations who benefit. Just because it’s a freeze dried food company or heirloom seed seller doesn’t mean they aren’t greedy. It is simply a new group raping the public.


[edit on 3-4-2009 by VelmaLu]

You're actually submitting this thread at the most opportune time.

The Crash is going to happen this month. All the Markets point to it and all the economists are talking about it.

Grounding
BY: CRISIS MANAGER The last days of operational markets (Part 1)
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We have experienced great decades of freedom and growth. If one looks back in the history of mankind this is a very unusual combination. Rarely such a long period of freedom was experienced in Europe and the rest of the western world. Enormous wealth was created by people and through the security and viability of the system, this freedom could be maintained for a very long period of time. One should keep this in mind, when looking at the recent financial and economic crisis.

Now, in the last days of March 2009, we experience a bear market rally. But there is an increasing chance that very soon this rally will turn into a disastrous downturn of the markets. For those who have forgotten about history, this will most likely become a costly lesson.

Remember what happened after the start of the First World War. Stock markets were closed around the world. Protectionism and attack of capital rights shocked investors – and if the war itself would not have come as a greater concern to many, it would have cost outrage in the streets. You might also recall that it took years for the stock markets to operate again.

Last year Nouriel Rubini predicted that markets would have to be closed. With his blunt statement he scared many people. Now he was amongst the first ones to warn of a bear market rally. In case he will be proven right, then we can anticipate that the markets will experience severe and more trouble than in 2008.

Another prediction which comes to match Roubini´s prediction somehow was my prediction on server market turmoil between April 7th and 5th of May 2009. There is little time left to go and the signs seem to confirm my deepest concerns.

The issues which piled up the last days are so massive that no one half way intelligent should consider this bear market rally as a sign for economic recovery.

1. We have utilized unprecedented expansive monetary and fiscal policies.
2. So far stimulus and bail outs show no sign of slowing down the deflationary pressures. Even the UK goes into deflationary mode, after having had negative deflation in Q1 2009.
3. The UK was also the first large country where central bankers and the prime minister got into discussions about the end of fiscal policy options. That means there is no room to maneuver.
4. Citizens in all western economies are increasingly unsatisfied with socialism for the rich. Some pessimists can even hear the sound of the Marseilles and the run on “la Bastille”.
5. The latest declarations on GM and Chrysler will significantly reshape the landscape of business and the bond industry. If these companies go into bankruptcy, as I predicted back in 2007, then a horrible mixture of losses in Bond markets and forced selling will hit the markets.
6. In this situation bank failures will be the consequences of the game, leading to the worst depression in western history.

Hold, one might say. Don´t be so pessimistic about the future. In reality, I have lost hope that anyone can solve the crisis from getting worse at this moment of time. Policy makers have maneuvered their economies directly into a no return situation. The spending of resources on failed banks and businesses drained the economic resources, which would have been of great help in the "real economy". It further drained trust, motivation and destroyed room for political maneuvers and joint actions. Protectionism will be a result of this.

What will happen in April?

Expect the bond markets to tank. Huge redemptions will strike hedge funds and drive down the leverage in the system, even further. This will create the need for banks to ask the government for more money. The money injected in the financial system to have stabilized the financial system will vanish like a drop of water on a hot stone. The funds the financial system will need to survive will make the former bail outs look like peanuts. In the first phase of the crisis, equity markets became insufficient in helping companies to raise fresh and adequate funding. In April the fire will jump to the bond markets sucking the last oxygen out of the lungs of the financial system. Within an environment where governments have already guaranteed commercial paper, this will collapse the chance for any kind of governmental support to businesses.

Most governments themselves will feel the heat, especially the Anglo-Saxon ones. The amount of debt which has to be issued and bought this year is exceeding demand by far. In an environment where the bond market collapses, investors will hold back even further, as they will expect the bond yields to raise within the short term future. This will become the precursor of significant inflation and state bankruptcy.

Keep further in mind that it wasn´t the year 1929 in which the US faced the most bank failures. It only started in 1930. Bank failures started to spark off as resources got scarce! The fastest way to reduce your resources is to throw them into fire and burn them, instead of keeping them away.

In April investors will experience that their flexibility will be frozen. This It will change the landscape and break with another paradigm. Bank failures of too big to fail institutions will take place or will at least be discussed. Stock markets will tank along with bond markets. Large, known companies will go out of business. Massive lay-offs will be announced. Bond markets will eventually be closed, even though governments need them to work.

Link here

[edit on 4/3/2009 by Tentickles]

Sounds like more fear mongering. The question is: Who will benefit this time around?

reply to post by VelmaLu


Only to those who choose to be blind and stupid. You do realize that the Depression didn't until 4 years later, yes?

reply to post by VelmaLu

Woohoo the stock market has a small rally. Whoopedy-do! Unemployment is still going up. Buisinesses are still going bankrupt. Food banks and such are running out of food. When the stock market has a rally only the rich benefit from it.

reply to post by VelmaLu



Source Reuters: Now 1 in 10 Americans receive food stamps

uk.reuters.com...

Are you really seeing a silver lining?

Originally posted by elston
reply to post by VelmaLu

 

Source Reuters: Now 1 in 10 Americans receive food stamps

uk.reuters.com...

Are you really seeing a silver lining?

47 million Americans dont have any healthcare or dental cover, thats nearly the population of England. Once over it was a poverty stricken minority in places like Tennasee, now its lots of blue and white coller workers, the trend is alarming.

Millions of Americans haven't had health care for decades. This is nothing new. Our food stockpiles were depleted years ago, this is nothing new.

I'm not saying the situation is good, what I am questioning is why some places seem to be claiming the situation is much worse than it is. No doubt you too have heard promises of a collapse of municipal services that have not come to fruition. That's not to say that governments aren't having economic problems, but it seems like an exaggeration in order to ratchet up the fear in the public to sell more guns, more ammo, more supplies, more gardening equipment.

Do you really think this big online bookseller is really interested in you having a solar generator so you’ll have power? They are no different than the bureaucrats, Wall Street types and bankers. Fear is a powerful marketing tool.

Everyone is out to make a buck on the public, some just try to get you to believe it is “in your best interest.”

Double post.

[edit on 3-4-2009 by VelmaLu]